[1] Diagnosis. The USA has not been able to convince the world public opinion, the UN and the Security Council (except for the UK) that a military attack is justified because:
- the Saddam Hussein regime has assisted, even hosted, Al Qaeda;
- there is a clear and present danger of Iraq attacking Israel or others with weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

So there is a justified hypothesis that the US military build-up around Iraq, and the detailed plans for a regime change under US military occupation (Japan model?) has other motives:
- creating a political and military substitute for Saudi Arabia given the nationality of the alleged authors of the 9/11 crimes, SA Wahhabism and alleged SA support of Al Qaeda activities;
- getting access to Iraqi oil instead of SA oil (or in addition by separating the oil part of SA as a protectorate);
- liberating Israel from the perceived Iraq threat;
- using an Iraq war as cover for an Israel "transfer" project of Palestinians from Palestine into Jordan, with "regime change".
To gain support for a military attack the USA promises veto powers in the UNSC (France, Russia, China) access to Iraqi oil.

[2] Prognosis. If the Gulf macro-war January-February 1991 produced about 300,000 Iraqi casualties an Iraq house-to-house micro-war 2002-03 will hardly produce less suffering to a people that has already suffered enormously from inner and outer foes. A civil war along many fault-lines (for and against the Hussein Baath-Tikrit regime; Sunni-Shia; Iraqis-Kurds; Kurds-Turks) is highly likely, with even more severe consequences. Horizontal escalation involving more armies in the Middle East is possible. The hatred of US/UK foreign policy in Arab countries and among the world's Muslims in general will reach new levels, at best only leading to massive boycott of US/UK goods and services for a long period, at worst to massive violence. The fragile tissue of world order will suffer massive rifts. A US decline may also lead to a massive US anti-semitic backlash.

[3] Therapy. To eliminate WMD and promote democracy:
- UN inspection, verified destruction, control of acquisition, production and storage of WMD in Iraq; justifying a strong resolution for unfettered UN inspection. And in Israel?
- UN facilitation, supervision and control of free and fair elections by secret ballot in Iraq, and regime change if the people so want. And in the USA, given the 2000 elections?
Equality before the law is a basis for world order, not as a utopian principle but as an order that derives legitimacy, and hence compliance, from treating equal cases equally.
For conflict resolution a mediation process might work:
First, the UNSC appoints a Wise People Commission, like the Nobel Prize winners Carter-Gorbachev-Mandela to assess the goals of the parties, trying to bridge legitimate goals of all;
Second, the UN Security Council (four Christian and one Confucian country in the permanent nucleus) in cooperation with the Organization of the Islamic Conference representing 56 Islamic countries sponsor an open-ended Conference on Security and Cooperation in the Middle East (CSCME), to consider:
- A joint UNSC/OIC WMD inspection regime for the region, opening Iraq for inspection and UN supervised elections;
- A joint UN/OIC democracy/human rights campaign in the region;
- Outstanding issues from Iraq/Iran and Iraq/Kuwait wars;
- Moving forward on the Kurdish four-countries issue;
- The European Community as a possible model for a Middle East Community of Israel-Syria-Lebanon-Palestine-Jordan-Egypt. (02y)