{"id":10097,"date":"2011-02-14T00:00:16","date_gmt":"2011-02-13T23:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=10097"},"modified":"2011-02-14T00:59:42","modified_gmt":"2011-02-13T23:59:42","slug":"world-history-unfolding-what-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2011\/02\/world-history-unfolding-what-next\/","title":{"rendered":"World History Unfolding – What Next?"},"content":{"rendered":"

And then it happened: Mubarak out<\/em>.\u00a0 Enormous cheers in Tahrir square; Egypt is Free<\/em>!<\/span> A historical deed, triggered by Tunisia, carried by a million heroes.\u00a0 Leaderless of course, as a strategy; leaders can easily be targeted.\u00a0 Everybody rallied around one idea, the ouster of Mubarak–like of Ben Ali in Tunisia.\u00a0 End of Act I.<\/p>\n

Enters the High Council of the Armed Forces; with or without a notorious vice-president.\u00a0 Start of Act II; of many in this drama.<\/p>\n

What has happened surprises nobody familiar with the enormous strength of nonviolence.\u00a0 A nonviolent mass of citizens can remove a head of state if they are numerous enough and tenacious enough, persevering for days, weeks, months.\u00a0 There may be an intermediate stage with the head of state, the symbol, even if only a figurehead, sacrificing some underlings, throwing them to the masses.\u00a0 But they want the real thing; that symbol of evil, the head, not the body.\u00a0 Whereupon some underlings, or the USA, sacrifice the head of state, a “goner”, hoping it will satisfy the appetites of the revolution.<\/p>\n

What happens then, meaning now, may show the weakness of this type of nonviolence–as opposed to the gandhian original.\u00a0 Gandhi did not argue the ouster of a viceroy, but the end of colonialism; swaraj<\/em>, self-rule, and he got that.\u00a0 But he also argued sarvodaya<\/em>, the uplift of the poor and casteless, and was betrayed.\u00a0 So was Nepal.\u00a0 So were the huge masses in Western Europe demonstrating against nuclear arms; they are still there, deployed.\u00a0 So were the heroic demonstrators in Leipzig in DDR October 1989; they wanted a democratic DDR, not absorption into capitalist Germany.\u00a0 So did the protesters against Milosevic who, like Honecker, was ousted; they did not want an anti-Titoist chetnik<\/span> take-over.\u00a0 The nonviolent “color” revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine were so obviously made in USA that they turned out to be caricatures of popular revolts.<\/p>\n

But even when genuine, states do not gladly share power with people revolting.\u00a0 And states have a handful of tricks up their sleeves after some initial sharing, committees, even agreements.<\/p>\n

If parliamentary, states can use legislative power to put the issue to a vote in a parliament based on national multi-party fair and free elections–easily manipulated by the media.\u00a0 Only rarely will a majority in parliament yield to a majority in the streets.\u00a0 If they are real democracies, not only parliamentary systems, states may even call a referendum, mobilizing the non-revolting masses.<\/p>\n

But, if those demands from streets and squares do not obtain parliamentary, nor democratic, legitimacy, are they not dead?\u00a0 Not if the nonviolent movement becomes better at conveying their message to the not converted, reaching far beyond streets and squares.<\/p>\n

Then states can use the judicial power, placing the issues for the Supreme Court, having the demands declared unconstitutional.<\/p>\n

And they can use the executive power, the whole state machinery to sabotage demands by simply not carrying them out.\u00a0 And<\/em>, in the darker recesses of the executive power, the covert police, the overt police, and the military, are lurking.\u00a0 In Egypt the military are now holding all power.\u00a0 A constitutional coup?\u00a0 But military rule, not democratic, may also be with the people and for the people, if not of them.\u00a0 Let us be frank: a dictatorship should also be judged by what it dictates; and a democracy by what the people decide, like voting for US parties with interventions, wars on their hands.\u00a0 Know the tree by its fruits.\u00a0 Give them a chance, the youth will watch.<\/p>\n

But still deeper down two states want a final say. Israel, caring only for itself, not for the Egyptian people, does anything to keep the Camp David treason of the Palestinian people intact.\u00a0 USA, helped by Obama rhetoric, may do anything against \u201cislamism”. The military council has acquiesced, they will “honor treaties”.<\/p>\n

To struggle against this five-headed troll is nothing easy.\u00a0 Goals beyond the ouster of a symbol of evil must be formulated in non-controversial universal language. The Human Rights Covenants<\/em> (16-12-66) provide that language as a platform; with examples like:<\/p>\n

Civil-political rights<\/span> Economic-social-cultural rights<\/span><\/p>\n

1. rule of law\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1. right to work<\/p>\n

2. freedom of movement,\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2. sufficient wages for a internally and externally decent living<\/p>\n

3. right to own property\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3. right to rest, leisure<\/p>\n

4. freedom of thought\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4. guaranteed food, clothing, housing<\/p>\n

5. freedom of expression\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5. guaranteed health care<\/p>\n

6. freedom of assembly\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6. guaranteed education at all levels<\/p>\n

7. right to take part in\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 7. right to take part in government culture<\/p>\n

They were demonstrating for both, even if the rhetoric was more for freedom than for basic needs.\u00a0 The movement should stay firmly on both, well knowing that immediate steps can ensure the civil-political rights (stop torture, lift censorship, free and fair elections) whereas slower processes are needed for economic and social rights (create employment).\u00a0 But a stand for all human rights would be an unbeatable platform, enjoying worldwide at least verbal consensus and remove any suspicion that the revolt is by and for the educated middle classes only.\u00a0 Both-And.<\/p>\n

What remains are those two states pulling strings of threats and bribery.\u00a0 Human rights stop at the borders.\u00a0 What is the next goal, in non-controversial, universal language? Sovereignty<\/em>, like end of colonialism. Are free elections in a puppet country Tahrir= Liberation?\u00a0 For a country aspiring to reemerge as an Arab leader?<\/p>\n

Sooner or later the Camp David accords and the joint blockade of Gaza–outcomes of autocracy and bribery–will be on the table.\u00a0 Sooner or later the youth wave will hit more dominos; PLO, Syria, Iran, and the Big One–the Saudi Royal House.\u00a0 Maybe even that other Big One–Israel<\/em>–liberating it from narcissism, paranoia, and generalocracy, to positive judaism.\u00a0 Maybe one day even the Biggest One–the USA<\/em>–making it less corporate, more democratic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

And then it happened: Mubarak out. Enormous cheers in Tahrir square; Egypt is Free! A historical deed, triggered by Tunisia, carried by a million heroes. Leaderless of course, as a strategy; leaders can easily be targeted. Everybody rallied around one idea, the ouster of Mubarak–like of Ben Ali in Tunisia. End of Act I…. Sooner or later the Camp David accords and the joint blockade of Gaza–outcomes of autocracy and bribery–will be on the table. Sooner or later the youth wave will hit more dominos; PLO, Syria, Iran, and the Big One–the Saudi Royal House. Maybe even that other Big One–Israel–liberating it from narcissism, paranoia, and generalocracy, to positive judaism. Maybe one day even the Biggest One–the USA–making it less corporate, more democratic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10097","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-editorial"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10097","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10097"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10097\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10097"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10097"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10097"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}