{"id":101298,"date":"2017-11-06T12:00:41","date_gmt":"2017-11-06T12:00:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=101298"},"modified":"2017-11-05T11:29:00","modified_gmt":"2017-11-05T11:29:00","slug":"is-israel-winning-the-war-between-the-wars-with-iranhezbollah","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2017\/11\/is-israel-winning-the-war-between-the-wars-with-iranhezbollah\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Israel Winning \u201cthe War between the Wars\u201d with Iran\/Hezbollah?"},"content":{"rendered":"

3 Nov 2017 – <\/em>Israeli commanders, stationed along Syria\u2019s southern border and the Golan Heights and Quneitra Valley, with some of their forces now operating daily more than 14 km inside Syrian territory, reportedly are expressing plenty of confidence these days. One reason is because they believe that Iranian-Hezbollah forces are losing the high stakes struggle to win the hearts and minds of Syria\u2019s and Lebanon\u2019s civilian population. A conflict referred to by Israel and others in the region as the \u201cwar between the wars<\/em>.\u201d\u00a0 A contest which has undergone some dramatic changes in recent months. The idea of the war between the wars <\/em>involves Tel Aviv\u2019s calculation that Israel needs to operate, far beyond Israel\u2019s borders if necessary, to contain Iran and Hezbollah.\u00a0 And as tensions escalate across the border, the IDF is trying to win over some of its Syrian civilian population enemies.<\/p>\n

One key positive element in the proposition was reiterated last week by members of the US Congressional Israeli lobby explaining that Israel is now able to stop virtually all of Iran\u2019s arms shipments to Hezbollah in Lebanon. And additionally that Israel\u2019s military knows the location of hundreds of small sized Hezbollah military\/weapon bases across Lebanon and monitor them hourly. At least 122 attacks on Iran-Hezbollah convoys or weapon depots over the past few years being mainly small signature, late-night-early morning bombings are claimed to be major successes. Lobby spokespersons claim that Israel will continue this measure with likely impunity because serious retaliation from Hezbollah or its allies would mean major escalation which Tehran cannot risk.<\/p>\n

In addition to claiming that Iran and Hezbollah are now largely contained in Syria, Israeli officials apparently now believe that time is on Israel\u2019s side during a cold war but not during a hot one. \u00a0This, as the war in Syria continues to kill evermore Iranian and Hezbollah fighters creating political problems for both among their population bases.<\/p>\n

Israel, as part of the cold war is also expanding its recruitment of additional intelligence sources. The alleged intensive recruitment is focusing on Hezbollah neighborhoods across Lebanon as many in the formerly supportive population continue losing faith in the \u201cResistance\u201d and succumbed to large sums of cash-no questions asked- being offered by Washington and Tel Aviv. Israel is also recruiting among Syrians, particularly in South and North Syria and recently has \u00a0taken to revealing ID\u2019s and personal information of Hezbollah and Iranian commanders that earlier would not be disclosed. One example is last week the IDF \u201couted\u201d Munir Ali Naim Shati, (known in this observers Dahiyeh neighborhood of Haret Hreik as Hajj Hashem) the head of Hezbollah\u2019s southern command in Syria. Mr. Shati is in charge of Hezbollah\u2019s 3000-plus fighters in southern Syria and of the \u201cResistance\u201d project to establish a military base near the Israeli border in the Golan Heights. Several Iranians IRCG officers as well as Hezbollah\u2019s Jihad Mughniyeh (son of Imad, Hezbollah\u2019s military commander killed in Damascus in 2008 by a joint CIA-Mossad operation) and Samir Kuntar were killed in 2015 allegedly by Israeli air strikes. Some claim both were killed by friendly forces for political reasons. Some hold Iran\u2019s Al Quds force of responsibility for the killings in order to send a message to Hezbollah\u2019s leadership about towing the Tehran line more assiduously. Another claimed victim of the same Tehran-Dahiyeh tension was Mustafa<\/em> Badreddine, whose role was being in charge of Hezbollah forces since the beginning of the rebellion on 2011 when Hezbollah quickly entered Syria. \u00a0He was allegedly killed in May of 2016 on orders of Iran\u2019s IRGC commander Qassim Soleimani. Badreddine reportedly complained that \u00a0Al Quds commander Qassim Soleimani, a political rival of Nasrallah\u2019s, was sending Hezbollah fighters needlessly to their death in Aleppo\u2019s front to spare risks to Tehran\u2019s IRGC fighters.<\/p>\n

Some of Hezbollah\u2019s recent actions involving its erstwhile unquestioning Shia supporters in Lebanon have also encouraged Tel Aviv in \u2018the war between the wars.<\/em>\u2019 One example was documented on 10\/23\/2017\u00a0 when Lebanese police, green lighted by Hezbollah, raided unlicensed street vendors\u00a0 near the main headquarters of Hezbollah, resulting in vitriolic expressions of discontent targeting the Party of God. \u00a0Lebanon\u2019s \u00a0politicized Internal Security Forces (ISF) supportive of Hezbollah, was insturcted to use bulldozers to demolish stores in the Hay al-Sollom neighborhood, where the residents for years have sold coffee and mobile phones. In reaction to the destruction of their livelihoods, scores of mainly Shia residents poured into the streets and began burning tires and blocking roads. Several of the protesters were shown on Lebanese media cursing not the Lebanese government, but rather condemning Hezbollah and its leader Hassan Nasrallah, who they blamed for the loss of their livelihoods and involvement in Syria\u2019s civil war. One woman addressed Nasrallah directly after she discovered her shop — her family\u2019s only source of income \u2013 a pile of rubble: “We all provided martyrs for you in Syria. I have three injured sons. And this is how you’re treating us?<\/em>” Another man yelled at the camera, “Syria can go to hell, along with Hassan Nasrallah!”<\/em><\/p>\n

One veteran Lebanese journalist, Hanin Ghabber explained recently:<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is no coincidence that this exceptional act of revolt occurred in one of Dahiya’s poorest neighborhoods. As much as the Syria war has changed Hezbollah militarily and expanded its regional role, it has also changed the Lebanese Shia community and its perceptions of the group. Class divisions in Dahiya are more drastic than ever — the poor neighborhoods are providing fighters while the upper middle class and rich neighborhoods are benefiting from the war. \u201c<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Several Lebanese analysts argue that Hezbollah is paying the price for getting involved in Syria on orders from Tehran. And part of that price is its lost image as a “Resistance” organization as well as costing the lives of thousands of young Shia men. And since Hezbollah became focused on fighting in Syria, it could no longer offer law and order given the growing number of the drug cartels, petty criminals, and illegal construction and growing lawlessness. Shia street clashes are increasing in Dahiya and criticisms of Hezbollah are escalating. Lebanese Shia seek a reasonable livelihood and basic services and have little interest in Hezbollah’s battle against so-called \u00a0\u201cTakfires\u201d in Syria.<\/p>\n

Israel\u2019s accelerating \u201cHearts and Minds\u201d initiatives in South Syria are also undermining support for Hezbollah and Iran. In early 2013, seven injured Syrians appeared at the border fence separating Syria from Israel, pleading for help. Israeli forces, after deliberations that reportedly reached some top military and government officials decided to treat the Syrians who reportedly would have died without immediate emergency medical care.<\/p>\n

Four years later, the IDF claims it is providing medical and food assistance and various types of humanitarian aid to thousands of Syrians both inside Syria and within Israel as part of what it calls its \u201cGood Neighbor\u201d policy. An Israeli official defines this initiative as intended to assist desperate Syrians ravaged by years of civil war, and in the process stabilize the border region by showing Syria\u2019s heretofore enemy population that Israel is not, in fact, the devil. Reportedly, no ID\u2019s are asked for by Syrian\u2019s arriving at the border and medical teams are advised not to inquire about patients political affiliations.<\/p>\n

The destitute population in South Syria, some rebels and some supporters of the government, as well as increasing numbers who claim to be apolitical, plus countless thousands of internally displaced Syrians, are learning of Israel\u2019s \u201cGood Neighbor\u201d policy. Consequently, the number seeking and receiving aid is growing.\u00a0 One reason is the failure over the past seven years of the International Community to deliver humanitarian aid including food, water, clothing, and medical aid to Syria\u2019s besieged civilian population.<\/p>\n

Whether this is a significant advantage for Israel in its still cold war against Iran and Hezbollah remains to be seen but it is unlikely to be a game changer given the deepening involvement in Syria of regional and global powers.\u00a0 As well as the fact that all sides continue to largely ignore the Syrian civilian population unless a clear political advantage is likely to result.<\/p>\n

__________________________________________________<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a>Franklin P. Lamb, LLB, LLM, Ph.D. is a Fellow at Oxford University-UK, Law Professor, Legal Adviser to the Sabra-Shatila Scholarship Program, Shatila Camp\u00a0 (SSSP-lb.com<\/a>), and a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment<\/a>.\u00a0 As a volunteer with\u00a0the Palestine Civil Rights Campaign, Beirut and Washington, DC he is committed to help achieving\u00a0the Right to Work and the Right to Home Ownership for every Palestinian Refugee in Lebanon. Lamb\u2019s recent book, <\/em>Syria\u2019s Endangered Heritage: An international Responsibility to Protect and Preserve, is <\/em>available on Amazon and other ebook outlets as well as at www.syrian-heritage.com <\/a>. For Syria Heritage updates, please visit: www.syrian-heritage.com<\/a>. To provide a meal to a Syrian refugee child in Lebanon please visit: <\/em>http:\/\/mealsforsyrianrefugeechildrenlebanon.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a>. Lamb is reachable c\/o <\/em>franklin.lamb@hmc.ox.ac.uk<\/strong><\/a> or fplamb@gmail.com<\/a><\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Join the<\/em><\/strong> BDS-BOYCOTT, DIVESTMENT, SANCTIONS <\/em><\/strong>campaign<\/em><\/strong> <\/span>to protest the Israeli barbaric siege of Gaza, illegal occupation of the Palestine nation\u2019s territory, the apartheid wall, its inhuman and degrading treatment of the Palestinian people, and the more than 7,000 Palestinian men, women, elderly and children arbitrarily locked up in Israeli prisons.<\/p>\n

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7 2 9: BOYCOTT FOR JUSTICE!<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

3 Nov 2017 – Lebanese analysts argue that Hezbollah is paying the price for getting involved in Syria. Part of that price is its lost image as a “Resistance” organization, costing the lives of thousands of young Shia men\u2026 The destitute population in South Syria, some rebels and government supporters, those who claim to be apolitical and thousands of internally displaced Syrians are learning of Israel\u2019s \u201cGood Neighbor\u201d policy and the number seeking and receiving aid is growing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-101298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-transcend-members"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101298","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101298"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101298\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}