{"id":105236,"date":"2018-01-22T12:00:36","date_gmt":"2018-01-22T12:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=105236"},"modified":"2018-01-20T14:07:50","modified_gmt":"2018-01-20T14:07:50","slug":"trump-regime-on-the-verge-of-okaying-two-new-warheads-that-could-make-nuclear-war-more-likely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2018\/01\/trump-regime-on-the-verge-of-okaying-two-new-warheads-that-could-make-nuclear-war-more-likely\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Regime on the Verge of Okaying Two New Warheads That Could Make Nuclear War More Likely"},"content":{"rendered":"
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This M28 “mini-nuke”\u2014named the Davy Crockett\u2014was first tested in 1962. It produced a yield of just 15 to 20 tons of TNT, 1000 times less powerful than the Hiroshima bomb, but also a big dose of lethal radiation.<\/p><\/div>\n

16 Jan 2018 – <\/em>As has been reported since last summer, the Trump regime seeks to build<\/a> two new nuclear weapons, one of which\u2014a low-yield warhead for submarine-launched ballistic missiles\u2014could make nuclear war more likely, say critics. The other warhead\u00a0would be developed to be carried by submarine-launched cruise missiles, which haven\u2019t been equipped with nukes since 2010.<\/p>\n

Developing and building these\u00a0new nukes are elements included in the not-yet-finalized 2018 Nuclear Posture Review. The last NPR was released in 2010. If approved by Pr*sident Trump, a move which is expected later this month, it would mark a significant change from the Obama era when the emphasis on nukes as part of U.S. strategy\u00a0was reduced.<\/p>\n

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That white dot shows the Hiroshima blast, and the red surrounding it is the explosive power of the W78 workhorse bomb that is currently fitted on 149 of the 399 land-based U.S. ICBMS. The Union of Concerned Scientists that created the image note that the W78 has a yield of at least 335 kilotons; Hiroshima was 14-15kt. In addition to the ICBMs, the U.S. has hundreds of missiles equipped with the W76 warhead at 100 kilotons, and the W88 at 475kt (31 times as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb).<\/p><\/div>\n

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Advocates of installing the lower-yield warhead on\u00a0the submarine-launched Trident ballistic missile say it is a good thing specifically because it would mean the warhead would be more usable. Currently they complain, there is reluctance to actually launch any\u00a0nuclear-tipped missiles because their yields make them so incredibly destructive. In other words, having a lower-yield weapon at hand would make it easier to \u201cpush the button.\u201d<\/p>\n

The draft NPR has\u00a0trickled into the news since September when Bryan Bender first wrote about it at<\/a> Politico. On Thursday, Ashley Feinberg took up the matter <\/a>at The Huffington Post, posting a lengthy analysis of what the Pentagon calls a\u00a0\u00a0\u201cpre-decisional\u201d draft of the NPR along with a complete copy of it. On Monday, Michael R. Gordon at The Wall Street Journal <\/em>reported<\/a>\u00a0from behind a paywall on the subject:<\/p>\n

Supporters of the Pentagon\u2019s plan say it is time for the U.S. to update its nuclear forces to deal with changing threats some three decades after the end of the Cold War. Critics worry that the Pentagon\u2019s search for more flexible nuclear options could lower the threshold for their use.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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The majority of the Russian and U.S. nuclear arsenals are held in \u201cactive reserve\u201d and would take considerable time to bring back to operational status. But together, they have about 3,500 nuclear warheads actively deployed and ready for action in minutes.<\/p><\/div>\n

One of those many critics\u00a0told Bender:<\/p>\n

“If the U.S. moves now to develop a new nuclear weapon, it will send exactly the wrong signal at a time when international efforts to discourage the spread of nuclear weapons are under severe challenge,” said Steven Andreasen, a State Department official in the administrations of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush who served as the director of arms control on the National Security Council in the Clinton administration. “If the world’s greatest conventional and nuclear military power decides it cannot defend itself without new nuclear weapons, we will undermine our ability to prevent other nations from developing or enhancing their own nuclear capabilities and we will further deepen the divisions between the U.S. and other responsible countries<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The Journal <\/em>again:<\/p>\n

A major concern for the Pentagon is a new Russian ground-launched cruise missile that American officials say violates the treaty banning intermediate-range missiles based on land, which was signed in 1987 by President Ronald Reagan and Mikhail S. Gorbachev, leader of the then-Soviet Union. Russia\u2019s decision to develop and deploy that system is described by the review as part of a Russian doctrine that calls for threatening the limited use of nuclear weapons, or perhaps even carrying out a limited nuclear strike, to end a conventional war on terms favorable to the Kremlin.<\/em><\/p>\n

By developing a new American \u201clow yield\u201d system, the Pentagon review argues the U.S. will have more credible options to respond to Russian threats without using more powerful strategic nuclear weapons, which the Kremlin may calculate Washington would be reluctant to use for fear of unleashing an all-out nuclear war. Because the new weapons it is proposing would be based at sea, the U.S. wouldn\u2019t need the permission of other nations to deploy them and their deployment wouldn\u2019t violate existing arms-control agreements.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

It\u2019s not hard to imagine that if the U.S. develops the new low-yield warhead, so will the Russians, and possibly the Chinese. If the U.S. were to launch one or a handful of such nukes against a Russian hard target\u2014say a ballistic missile submarine base\u2014a Kremlin response in kind could be expected. And once the little nukes start flying, nothing would\u00a0stop the big ones from soon following. Next thing you know, the world\u2019s survivors are acting out the script from The Road <\/em><\/a>in real life.<\/p>\n

The 890 nuclear warheads currently deployed on U.S. submarines each have a yield of 7 to 31\u00a0times more power than the one dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.\u00a0Exactly what \u201clow-yield\u201d would mean is not yet defined. Trident missiles currently carry the city-busting W76 warhead at 100 kilotons (seven times more powerful than the 4-15 kiloton Hiroshima bomb) or the W88 at 475kt (31 times as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb). The new nuke would likely be in the 1kt-2kt range.<\/p>\n

Although the actual toll will never be known for certain, the Hiroshima\u00a0bomb killed around 80,000 people in a flash and at least another 100,000 from wounds and radiation-related sicknesses over the next 60 years. The fatalities from the bomb that took out Nagasaki were about half as many.<\/p>\n

The horror of this alone gives pause to anyone except for the Dr. Strangeloves among us. However, decision-makers might be more willing to launch a nuke that yields, say, 10 percent of the Hiroshima bomb for use against a hard target such as, for instance, a deep underground weapons-manufacturing site in North Korea.<\/p>\n

In other words, advocacy for building new mini-nukes is accompanied by a doctrinal shift that makes a mini-nuclear war \u201cthinkable.\u201d The main trouble with such thinking? Once such a war starts, keeping it mini by confining it to the delivery of a few small nukes\u2014or solely to the nation that\u2019s been hit with them\u2014may well be impossible. Delivering two or three of these to North Korea might very well spur the Chinese to respond with some bombs from their own nuclear arsenal. Nuclear calculus is a dicey game.<\/p>\n

The idea of building low-yield nukes is hardly new. Before the major global reduction of nuclear warheads that began in the late 1960s, the U.S. had thousands of such mini-nukes in its inventory\u2014artillery shells, landmines, depth charges, torpedoes, short-range ballistic missiles, even a kind of bazooka.<\/p>\n

It still has many nukes in the form of gravity bombs meant to be dropped from airplanes and warheads atop submarine-launched ballistic missiles and air-launched cruise missiles that can be instantly configured for low yields. Of a total active deployment of 1,740 bombs and warheads, the United States has several hundred with in-flight \u201cdial-up\u201d capabilities. This allows for variable yields as low as 0.3 kilotons of TNT (1\/50th the yield of the Hiroshima bomb) and as high as 340 kilotons.<\/p>\n

At few months ago, James Doyle at the\u00a0Bulletin of the\u00a0Atomic Scientists<\/em>\u00a0wrote:<\/a><\/p>\n

In December [2016], the Defense Science Board\u2014an independent group of experts and former officials that provides advice to the Defense Department\u2014submitted a\u00a0report<\/a>\u00a0advising the Pentagon to invest in low-yield nuclear weapons that could provide \u201ca rapid, tailored nuclear option for limited use.\u201d This recommendation struck a familiar note.<\/em><\/p>\n

In 2003, the board issued a\u00a0study<\/a>\u00a0entitled \u201cFuture Strategic Strike Forces\u201d that suggested building small nuclear weapons with \u201cgreat precision, deep penetration, [and] greatly reduced\u201d yield and radioactivity. The board\u2019s call led to investments in new warhead designs such as the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator\u2014a warhead designed to destroy deeply buried or hardened targets including underground military command centers\u2014and the Reliable Replacement Warhead. Both programs were cancelled in 2008, after millions of dollars had been spent.<\/em><\/p>\n

Despite the board\u2019s renewed interest in smaller nuclear weapons, and in weapons tailored for limited uses or specific effects, any effort to develop these weapons would encounter the same problem that earlier such efforts have encountered: It is impossible to determine if introducing weapons with these characteristics into the US stockpile, and planning for their use in certain scenarios, would strengthen deterrence or make nuclear war by miscalculation more likely. Building \u201cmini\u201d or tailored nuclear weapons might well lower the threshold to nuclear war; risking that outcome would only make sense if it were absolutely clear that introducing these weapons would remedy some dangerous weakness in deterrence.<\/em><\/p>\n

Fortunately, no such weakness exists. Any nation using nuclear weapons against the United States or its allies risks a devastating response whose negative consequences would far outweigh any gains delivered by crossing the nuclear threshold. <\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

One key aspect of mini-nukes is their potential for use as first-strike weapons in internationally prohibited \u201cpreventive wars\u201d that the Bush Doctrine posited. For instance, striking suspected or actual nuclear facilities in Iran or chemical weapons operations in Libya was one of the rationales for promoting development of low-yield nukes in the early 2000s. Such attacks might not develop into all-out war when directed against non-nuclear nations. But there are no guarantees and the potential for guessing wrong in this matter is enormous.<\/p>\n

Doyle continues:<\/p>\n

Just as in the early 2000s, current proponents of mini-nukes<\/a>\u00a0or of vague \u201climited nuclear options\u201d offer no convincing evidence that new weapons in this category are needed\u2014or more importantly, that they would make nuclear use less likely. Instead, potential nuclear adversaries are likely to see the acquisition of additional weapons in this category as an indication that US opposition to nuclear use has decreased and that Washington may be the first to cross the nuclear threshold. Such an outcome would undermine global stability and increase the risk of nuclear war. Defense resources are better spent on strengthening US conventional forces.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And here\u2019s Bender again:<\/p>\n

“It is difficult to imagine the circumstances under which we would need a military option in between our formidable conventional capabilities and our current low-yield nuclear weapons capabilities,” added Alexandra Bell, a former State Department arms control official. “Lawmakers should be very wary of any attempt to reduce the threshold for nuclear use. There is no such thing as a minor nuclear war.”<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

There is a much-ignored part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty\u2014Article VI:<\/p>\n

Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That should be item No. 1 on the minds of the drafters of the latest Nuclear Posture Review, not the development and building of more nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

Ronald Reagan didn\u2019t have the right idea about a lot of things. But he was right in pursuing “a world free of nuclear weapons,” which he considered to be \u201ctotally irrational, totally inhumane, good for nothing but killing, possibly destructive of life on earth and civilization.\u201d He and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev put that vision on a path to reality with their disarmament negotiations. Barack Obama also wanted a world with zero nuclear weapons. Less than three months into his first term of office, he\u00a0said<\/a> in Prague:<\/p>\n

Some argue that the spread of these weapons cannot be stopped, cannot be checked \u2014 that we are destined to live in a world where more nations and more people possess the ultimate tools of destruction. Such fatalism is a deadly adversary, for if we believe that the spread of nuclear weapons is inevitable, then in some way we are admitting to ourselves that the use of nuclear weapons is inevitable.<\/em><\/p>\n

Just as we stood for freedom in the 20th century, we must stand together for the right of people everywhere to live free from fear in the 21st century. And as nuclear power \u2014 as a nuclear power, as the only nuclear power to have used a nuclear weapon, the United States has a moral responsibility to act. We cannot succeed in this endeavor alone, but we can lead it, we can start it.<\/em><\/p>\n

So today, I state clearly and with conviction America\u2019s commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons. I\u2019m not naive. This goal will not be reached quickly \u2014 perhaps not in my lifetime. It will take patience and persistence. But now we, too, must ignore the voices who tell us that the world cannot change. We have to insist, \u201cYes, we can.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

It\u2019s true that most of the specific moves President Obama outlined in Prague toward global zero for nukes haven\u2019t borne any fruit. But that doesn\u2019t make his or President Reagan\u2019s push in the no-nukes direction pollyanna-ish or in any other way wrongheaded. The last thing the man now in the White House should be doing is endorsing\u00a0the building of more nuclear weapons based on the views of people who think deploying and using some small nukes would be valuable to U.S. security. But if it adds to his fantasies about raining fire and fury on North Korea, he no doubt will adopt this recommendation to the detriment of us all.<\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 dailykos.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

16 Jan 2018 – The Trump regime seeks to build two new nuclear weapons, one of which\u2014a low-yield warhead for submarine-launched ballistic missiles\u2014could make nuclear war more likely, say critics. The other warhead would be developed to be carried by submarine-launched cruise missiles, which haven\u2019t been equipped with nukes since 2010. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":105238,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[68],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-105236","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-weapons-of-mass-destruction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105236","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105236"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105236\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/105238"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105236"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105236"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105236"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}