{"id":11573,"date":"2011-04-18T12:00:59","date_gmt":"2011-04-18T11:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=11573"},"modified":"2011-04-15T17:34:52","modified_gmt":"2011-04-15T16:34:52","slug":"burma-grasping-at-straws-icg%e2%80%99s-latest-report-is-ill-informed-unsubstantiated-and-wrong-headed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2011\/04\/burma-grasping-at-straws-icg%e2%80%99s-latest-report-is-ill-informed-unsubstantiated-and-wrong-headed\/","title":{"rendered":"Burma: Grasping at Straws – ICG\u2019s Latest Report is Ill-Informed, Unsubstantiated and Wrong-headed"},"content":{"rendered":"

The latest report from International Crisis Group (ICG), Myanmar\u2019s Post-Election Landscape,<\/em> is one of the most extraordinary documents I have read in a long time. Rarely have I seen such na\u00efve and ill-considered analysis from an otherwise highly-respected and intelligent organisation.<\/p>\n

Riddled with inconsistencies and with no substantiation, ICG has surpassed even its own previous Burma reports in levels of idiocy. Its recognition at the beginning that the November 2010 elections \u201cwere not free and fair and the country has not escaped authoritarian rule\u201d is welcome, but it is what then follows that stretches the boundaries of credibility.<\/p>\n

ICG argues that \u201cit would be a mistake to conclude that nothing has changed\u201d. The top two leaders of the former military regime, Than Shwe and Maung Aye, have \u201cstepped aside\u201d and \u201ca new generation has taken over\u201d. Both points are wrong, as even ICG itself admits later in its report. Contradicting itself, ICG notes that Than Shwe \u201cwill continue to influence events from behind the scenes\u201d and will \u201cexert considerable influence\u201d. His power of patronage, \u201caccumulated wealth\u201d and control of business cronies \u201cwill underwrite his ongoing influence\u201d. Exactly \u2013 so he has not \u201cstepped aside\u201d.<\/p>\n

The suggestion that \u201ca new generation has taken over\u201d, this is \u201ca key moment of political transition\u201d and that \u201cthe changes will have a profound impact\u201d is absurd. Thein Sein, the new President, was prime minister under the old regime and was hand-picked by Than Shwe. Tin Aung Myint Oo, one of the new Vice-Presidents, was the number four in the old regime. Shwe Mann, the number three in the old regime, is the Speaker of Lower House of Parliament. Again, ICG contradicts itself by later noting that \u201cthese leaders have been groomed by Than Shwe not because they are necessarily the brightest and the best, but because they were the least threatening to him and his legacy\u201d. Exactly \u2013 so where is this \u201cnew generation\u201d? As a military intelligence officer in Rangoon told me recently, there is \u201cno change, no change\u201d.<\/p>\n

Noting that \u201ca number of technocrats have been brought into the cabinet,\u201d ICG concludes that decision-making will be \u201cless ad hoc, less idiosyncratic, potentially more coherent and possibly more effective\u201d. Yet of the thirty members of the new cabinet, only four are genuine civilians \u2013 the cabinet is still dominated by military. And even if the regime will now be \u201cmore effective\u201d, we need to ask \u2018more effective at what\u2019? Suppressing dissent and eliminating ethnic opposition, most likely. Coherency and effectiveness by themselves are no virtues if they increase the suffering of the people.<\/p>\n

In another example of breath-taking contradiction, ICG has the audacity to state that in the sham elections last November, \u201cfew polling irregularities were reported\u201d. This is patently false. There were widespread reports of ballot rigging and intimidation \u2013 as ICG then admits in its next breath, acknowledging \u201cmassive manipulation of the vote count\u201d. You can\u2019t have it both ways, ICG.<\/p>\n

ICG\u2019s core objective in policy terms is to argue for the lifting of sanctions. There is a legitimate debate to be had about the effectiveness of current sanctions measures, and the international community\u2019s use of sanctions as a strategic tool. Yet as with so many critics of sanctions, ICG has framed the debate in the wrong terms.<\/p>\n

First, they point to the West\u2019s \u201cfailed policies of sanctions and isolation\u201d. This is a tired and false characterisation of the purpose of sanctions. It is not about \u201cisolation\u201d. I don\u2019t know anyone who wants to \u201cisolate\u201d Burma. The objective of sanctions is the opposite: it is to force the regime to open up, because the only language this regime understands is the language of pressure.<\/p>\n

Second, ICG trots out the ancient myth about sanctions having \u201ca negative impact on the population\u201d. What is the evidence for this? Yes, the people of Burma are suffering economically \u2013 but it is more likely that their poverty is a result of the regime\u2019s corruption, greed and mismanagement of the economy, than the impact of sanctions. When there has been foreign investment in Burma, particularly in the oil and gas sectors, the revenues have gone to line the Generals\u2019 pockets and help them buy arms, not to help the people. The regime has stashed profits in offshore bank accounts in Singapore, spent almost half its budget on the military and less than a dollar per person per year on health and education combined.<\/p>\n

ICG\u2019s argument on aid lacks common sense. There are two aspects to the aid debate: development aid, through international financial institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Asia Development Bank (ADB), and humanitarian aid, in-country and cross-border, for medical care, livelihood provision, education, emergency relief and poverty alleviation. Most people, including myself, are passionately in favour of increased humanitarian aid to the people of Burma, who are among the poorest in the world, provided such aid goes both in-country and to refugees and internally displaced peoples along the borders and cross-border into the ethnic areas. However, the idea that international financial institutions should start funding development projects, enabling the regime to build more roads on which to move its troops and more dams to generate electricity to sell to neighbours, resulting in more displacement and human rights violations, is highly questionable.<\/p>\n

The idea that sanctions impede humanitarian aid is nonsense. The United Kingdom has shown that it is perfectly possible to be pro-sanctions and pro-aid. The UK is among the strongest advocates of maintaining sanctions \u2013 yet it is the largest bilateral donor to Burma, having recently announced a significant increase in its aid. Over the next four years, the UK will give an average of \u00a346 million ($75 million) a year in aid to Burma. So don\u2019t say sanctions result in less aid.<\/p>\n

ICG argues that \u201ca new approach urgently needs to be adopted\u201d, and on this point I agree. However, the approach needed is one that combines more effectively all the tools at our disposal \u2013 economic pressure, diplomatic and political initiatives, high-level engagement, and aid to the most vulnerable and to pro-democracy civil society groups, in-country and along the borders. In particular, we need a UN Commission of Inquiry to investigate the regime\u2019s crimes against humanity, as recommended by the UN\u2019s Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Burma and supported by 16 countries so far. We also need to end the badly-informed and polarised debate about sanctions, and recognise that sanctions can only be lifted when the regime shows meaningful signs of progress: the release of political prisoners, an end to military offensives against ethnic civilians, and the beginning of a dialogue with the democracy movement led by Aung San Suu Kyi and the ethnic nationalities. The ball is in the regime\u2019s court. What we do not need is na\u00efve and uninformed analyses and policies that amount to surrender and appeasement and grasp at straws. We do not need any more UN and EU bureaucrats telling us to \u201cwait and see\u201d. A senior EU official recently admitted to me: \u201cI really don\u2019t know. I just cross my fingers and hope for the best,\u201d and it appears that is ICG\u2019s approach too. Such an approach will only help the Generals. We need a well-informed, co-ordinated, creative and proactive international strategy that supports the desire of the people of Burma for change.<\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 mizzima.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The latest report from International Crisis Group (ICG), Myanmar\u2019s Post-Election Landscape, is one of the most extraordinary documents I have read in a long time. Rarely have I seen such na\u00efve and ill-considered analysis from an otherwise highly-respected and intelligent organisation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11573","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asia-pacific"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11573","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11573"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11573\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11573"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11573"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11573"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}