{"id":11717,"date":"2011-04-25T12:00:33","date_gmt":"2011-04-25T11:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=11717"},"modified":"2011-04-19T17:18:40","modified_gmt":"2011-04-19T16:18:40","slug":"sleepwalking-into-the-imperial-dark","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2011\/04\/sleepwalking-into-the-imperial-dark\/","title":{"rendered":"Sleepwalking into the Imperial Dark"},"content":{"rendered":"

What It Feels Like When a Superpower Runs Off the Tracks <\/em><\/p>\n

This can\u2019t end well.<\/p>\n

But then, how often do empires end well, really?\u00a0 They live vampirically by feeding off others until, sooner or later, they begin to feed on themselves, to suck their own blood, to hollow themselves out.\u00a0 Sooner or later, they find themselves, as in our case, economically stressed and militarily extended in wars they can\u2019t afford to win or lose.<\/p>\n

Historians have certainly written<\/a> about the dangers of overextended empires and of endless war<\/a> as a way of life, but there\u2019s something distant and abstract about the patterns of history.\u00a0 It\u2019s quite another thing to take it in when you\u2019re part of it; when, as they used to say in the overheated 1960s, you\u2019re in the belly of the beast.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t know what it felt like to be inside the Roman Empire in the long decades, even centuries, before it collapsed, or to experience the waning years of the Spanish empire, or the twilight of the Qing dynasty, or of Imperial Britain as the sun first began to set, or even of the Soviet Empire before the troops<\/a> came slinking home from Afghanistan, but at some point it must have seemed at least a little like this — truly strange, like watching a machine losing its parts.\u00a0 It must have seemed as odd and unnerving as it does now to see a formerly mighty power enter a state of semi-paralysis at home even as it staggers on blindly with its war-making abroad.<\/p>\n

The United States is, of course, an imperial power, however much we might prefer not to utter the word.\u00a0 We still have our globe-spanning array of semi-client states; our military continues to garrison<\/a> much of the planet; and we are waging war abroad more continuously than at any time in memory.\u00a0 Yet who doesn\u2019t sense that the sun is now setting on us?<\/p>\n

Not so many years ago, we were proud enough of our global strength to regularly refer to ourselves as the Earth\u2019s \u201csole superpower.\u201d \u00a0In those years, our president and his top officials dreamed of establishing a worldwide Pax Americana<\/em>, while making speeches<\/a> and issuing official documents<\/a> proclaiming that the United States would be militarily \u201cbeyond challenge\u201d by any and all powers for eons to come. \u00a0So little time has passed and yet who speaks like that today?\u00a0 Who could?<\/p>\n

A Country in Need of Prozac<\/strong><\/p>\n

Have you noticed, by the way, how repetitiously our president<\/a>, various presidential candidates<\/a>, and others now insist that we are \u201cthe greatest nation on Earth\u201d (as they speak of<\/a> the U.S. military being \u201cthe finest fighting force in the history of the world\u201d)?\u00a0 And yet, doesn\u2019t that phrase leave ash in your mouth?\u00a0 Look at this country and its frustrations today and tell me: Does anyone honestly believe that anymore?<\/p>\n

It wasn\u2019t a mistake that the fantasy avenger figure of Rambo<\/a> became immensely popular in the wake of defeat in Vietnam or that, unlike American heroes of earlier decades, he had such a visibly, almost risibly overblown<\/a> musculature.\u00a0 As eye-candy, it was pure overcompensation for the obvious.\u00a0 Similarly, when the United States was actually \u201cthe greatest\u201d on this planet, no one needed to say it over and over again.<\/p>\n

Can there be any question that something big is happening here, even if we don\u2019t quite know what it is because, unlike the peoples of past empires, we never took pride in or even were able to think of ourselves as imperial?\u00a0 And if you were indeed in denial that you lived in the belly of a great imperial power, if like most Americans you managed to ignore the fact that we were pouring our treasure<\/a> into the military or setting up bases<\/a> in countries that few could have found on a map, then you would naturally experience the empire going down as if through a glass darkly.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, the feelings that should accompany the experience of an imperial power running off the rails aren\u2019t likely to disappear just because analysis is lacking.\u00a0 Disillusionment, depression, and dismay flow ever more strongly through the American bloodstream.\u00a0 Just look at any polling data<\/a> on whether this country, once the quintessential land of optimists, is heading in \u201cthe right direction\u201d or on \u201cthe wrong track,\u201d and you\u2019ll find that the \u201cwrong track\u201d numbers are staggering, and growing by the month.\u00a0 On the rare occasions<\/a> when Americans have been asked by pollsters whether they think the country is \u201cin decline,\u201d the figures have been similarly over the top.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not hard to see why.\u00a0 A loss of faith in the American political system is palpable.\u00a0 For many Americans, it\u2019s no longer \u201cour government\u201d but \u201cthe bureaucracy.\u201d\u00a0 Washington is visibly in gridlock and incapable of doing much of significance, while state governments, facing<\/a> the \u201csteepest decline in state tax receipts on record,\u201d are, along with local governments, staggering under massive deficits and cutting back<\/a> in areas — education, policing, firefighting — that matter<\/a> to daily life.<\/p>\n

Years ago, in the George W. Bush era, I wanted to put a new word<\/a> in our domestic political vocabulary: \u201cRepublican\u2019ts.\u201d\u00a0 It was my way of expressing the feeling that something basic to this country — a \u201ccan do\u201d spirit — was seeping away.\u00a0 I failed, of course, and since then that \u201ccan\u2019t do\u201d spirit has visibly spread far beyond the Republican Party.\u00a0 Simply put, we\u2019re a country in need of Prozac.<\/p>\n

Facing the challenges of a world at the edge — from Japan to the Greater Middle East, from a shaky global economic system to weather that has become anything but entertainment<\/a> — the United States looks increasingly incapable of coping.\u00a0 It no longer invests in its young, or plans effectively for the future, or sets off on new paths.\u00a0 It literally can\u2019t do<\/em>.\u00a0 And this is not just a domestic crisis, but part of imperial decline.<\/p>\n

We just don\u2019t treat it as such, tending instead to deal with the foreign and domestic as essentially separate spheres, when the connections between them are so obvious.\u00a0 If you doubt this, just pull into your nearest gas station<\/a> and fill up the tank.\u00a0 Of course, who doesn\u2019t know that this country, once such a generator of wealth, is now living with unemployment figures<\/a> not seen since the Great Depression, as well as unheard of levels of debt, that it\u2019s hooked on foreign energy (and like most addicts has next to no capacity for planning how to get off that drug), or that it\u2019s living through the worst period<\/a> of income inequality in modern history?\u00a0 And who doesn\u2019t know that a crew of financial fabulists, corporate honchos, lobbyists, and politicians have been fattening themselves off the faltering body politic?<\/p>\n

And if you don\u2019t think any of this has anything to do with imperial power in decline, ask yourself why the options for our country so often seem to have shrunk to what our military is capable of, or that the only significant part of the government whose budget<\/a> is still on the rise is the Pentagon.\u00a0 Or why, when something is needed, this administration, like its predecessor, regularly turns to that same military.<\/p>\n

Once upon a time, helping other nations in terrible times, for example, would have been an obvious duty of the civil part of the U.S. government.\u00a0 Today, from Haiti<\/a> to Japan, in such moments it\u2019s the U.S. military that acts.\u00a0 In response to the Japanese triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown, for instance, the Pentagon has mounted<\/a> a large-scale recovery effort, involving 18,000 people, 20 U.S. Navy ships, and even fuel barges bringing fresh water<\/a> for reactor-cooling efforts at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear complex.\u00a0 The effort has been given a military code name, Operation Tomodachi (Japanese for \u201cfriend\u201d), and is, among other things, an obvious propaganda campaign meant to promote the usefulness of America\u2019s archipelago of bases in that country.<\/p>\n

Similarly, when the administration needs something done in the Middle East, these days it\u2019s as likely to send Secretary of Defense Robert Gates — he recently paid official visits to Bahrain<\/a>, Saudi Arabia<\/a>, Iraq<\/a>, and Egypt<\/a> — as Secretary of State Hilary Clinton.\u00a0 And of course, as is typical, when a grim situation in Libya worsened and something \u201chumanitarian\u201d was called for, the Obama administration (along with NATO) threw air power at it.<\/p>\n

Predictably, as in Afghanistan and the Pakistani borderlands, air power failed to bring about speedy success.\u00a0 What\u2019s most striking is not that Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi didn\u2019t instantly fall, or that the Libyan military didn\u2019t collapse when significant parts of its tank and artillery forces were taken out, or that the swift strikes meant to turn the tide have already stretched into more than a month of no-fly zone NATO squabbling<\/a> and military stalemate<\/a> (as the no-fly zone version of war against Saddam Hussein\u2019s Iraq<\/a> stretched to 12 years without ultimate success).<\/p>\n

Imperially speaking, two things are memorable about the American military effort in Libya.\u00a0 First, Washington doesn\u2019t seem to have the conviction of what\u2019s left of its power, as its strange military dance in (and half-out of<\/a>) the air over that country indicates. Second, even in the military realm, Washington is increasingly incapable of drawing lessons from its past actions.\u00a0 As a result, its arsenal of potential tactics is made up largely of those that have failed in the recent past.\u00a0 Innovation is no longer part of empire.<\/p>\n

The Uses of Fear<\/strong><\/p>\n

From time to time, the U.S. government\u2019s \u201cIntelligence Community<\/a>\u201c\u00a0 or IC musters its collective savvy and plants its flag in the future in periodic reports that go under the generic rubric of \u201cGlobal Trends.\u201d\u00a0 The last of these, Global Trends 2025<\/a>, was prepared for a new administration taking office in January 2009, and it was typical.<\/p>\n

In a field once left to<\/a> utopian or dystopian thinkers, pulp-fiction writers, oddballs, visionaries, and even outright cranks, these compromise bureaucratic documents break little ground and rock no boats, nor do they predict global tsunamis.\u00a0 Better to forecast what the people you brief already believe, and skip the oddballs with their strange hunches, the sorts who might actually have a knack for recognizing the shock of the future lurking in the present.<\/p>\n

As group efforts, then, these reports tend to project the trends of the present moment relatively seamlessly and reasonably reassuringly into the future.\u00a0 For example, the last time around they daringly predicted<\/a> a gradual, 15-year soft landing for a modestly declining America.\u00a0 (“Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, [the country’s] relative strength — even in the military realm — will decline and U.S. leverage will become more constrained.”)<\/p>\n

Even though it was assumedly being finished amid the global meltdown of 2008, nothing in it would have kept you up at night, sleepless and fretting. \u00a0More than 15 years into the future, our IC could imagine no wheels falling off the American juggernaut, nothing that would make you wonder if this country could someday topple off the nearest cliff. \u00a0Twists, unpleasant surprises, unhappy endings?\u00a0 Not for this empire, according to its corps of intelligence analysts.<\/p>\n

And the future being what it is, if you read that document now, you\u2019d find none of the more stunning events that have disrupted and radically altered our world since late 2008: no Arab lands boiling with revolt, no Hosni Mubarak under arrest with his sons in jail, no mass demonstrations in Syria, no economies of peripheral European countries imploding down one by one, nor a cluster of nuclear plants in Japan melting down.<\/p>\n

You won\u2019t find once subservient semi-client states thumbing their noses at Washington, not even in 2025.\u00a0 You won\u2019t, for example, find the Saudis in, say 2011, openly exploring<\/a> deeper relations with Russia and China as a screw-you response to Washington\u2019s belated decision that Egyptian autocrat Hosni Mubarak should leave office, or Pakistani demands<\/a> that the CIA and American special operations forces start scaling back activities on their turf, or American officials practically pleading with an Iraqi government it once helped put in power (and now moving ever closer<\/a> to Iran) to please, please, please<\/a> let U.S. troops stay past an agreed-upon withdrawal deadline of December 31, 2011, or Afghan President Hamid Karzai publicly blaming<\/a> the Americans for the near collapse of his country\u2019s major bank in a cesspool of corruption (in which his own administration was, of course, deeply implicated)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Only two-plus years after Global Trends 2025<\/em> appeared, it doesn\u2019t take the combined powers of the IC to know that American decline looks an awful lot more precipitous and bumpier than imagined.\u00a0 But let\u2019s not just blame our intelligence functionaries for not divining the future we\u2019re already in.\u00a0 After all, they, too, were in the goldfish bowl, and when you\u2019re there, it\u2019s always hard to describe the nearest cats.<\/p>\n

Nor should we be surprised that, like so many other Americans, they too were in denial.<\/p>\n

After all, our leaders spent years organizing their version of the world around a \u201cGlobal War on Terror,\u201d when (despite the 9\/11 attacks) terror was hardly America\u2019s most obvious challenge.\u00a0 It proved largely a \u201cwar\u201d against phantoms and fantasies, or against modest-sized ragtag bands<\/a> of enemies — even though it resulted in perfectly real conflicts, absolutely genuine new bases abroad<\/a>, significant numbers of civilian dead, and the expansion<\/a> of a secret army of operatives inside the U.S. military into a force of 13,000 or more operating in 75 countries.<\/p>\n

The spasms of fear<\/a> that coursed through our society in the near-decade after September 11, 2001, and the enemy, \u201cIslamic terrorism,\u201d<\/a> to which those spasms were attached are likely to look far different to us in retrospect.\u00a0 Yes, many factors — including the terrifyingly apocalyptic look<\/a> of 9\/11 in New York City — contributed to what happened.\u00a0 There was fear\u2019s usefulness in prosecuting wars in the Greater Middle East that President Bush and his top officials found appealing.\u00a0 There was the way it ensured soaring budgets<\/a> for the Pentagon and the national security state.\u00a0 There was the way it helped the politicians, lobbyists, and corporations hooked into a developing homeland-security complex.\u00a0 There was the handy-dandy way it glued eyeballs to a one-event-fits-all-sizes version of the world that made the media happy, and there was the way it justified<\/a> ever increasing powers for our national security managers and ever lessening liberties for Americans.<\/p>\n

But think of all that as only the icing on the cake.\u00a0 Looking back, those terror fears coursing through the body politic will undoubtedly seem like Rambo\u2019s muscles: a deflection from the country\u2019s deepest fears.\u00a0 They were, in that sense, consoling.\u00a0 They allowed us to go on with our lives, to visit Disney World, as George W. Bush urged<\/a> in the wake of 9\/11 in order to prove our all-American steadfastness.<\/p>\n

Above all, even as our imperial wars in the oil heartlands of the planet went desperately wrong, they allowed us not to think about empire or, until the economy melted down in 2008, decline.\u00a0 They allowed us to focus our fears on \u201cthem,\u201d not us. \u00a0They ensured that, like the other great imperial power of the Cold War era, when things began to spiral out of control we would indeed sleepwalk right into the imperial darkness.<\/p>\n

Now that we\u2019re so obviously there, the confusion is greater than ever.\u00a0 Theoretically, none of this should necessarily be considered bad news, not if you don\u2019t love empires and what they do.\u00a0 A post-imperial U.S. could, of course, be open to all sorts of possibilities for change that might be exciting indeed.<\/p>\n

Right now, though, it doesn\u2019t feel that way, does it?\u00a0 It makes me wonder: Could this be how it\u2019s always felt inside a great imperial power on the downhill slide?\u00a0 Could this be what it\u2019s like to watch, paralyzed, as a country on autopilot begins to come apart at the seams while still proclaiming itself \u201cthe greatest nation on Earth\u201d?<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t know.\u00a0 But I do know one thing: this can\u2019t end well.<\/p>\n

________________<\/p>\n

Tom Engelhardt, co-founder of the <\/em>American Empire Project<\/em><\/a>, runs the Nation Institute’s <\/em>TomDispatch.com<\/em><\/a>.\u00a0 His latest book is<\/em> The American Way of War: How Bush\u2019s Wars Became Obama\u2019s<\/a> (Haymarket Books).<\/em><\/p>\n

Copyright 2011 Tom Engelhardt<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 tomdispatch.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

But then, how often do empires end well, really? They live vampirically by feeding off others until, sooner or later, they begin to feed on themselves, to suck their own blood, to hollow themselves out. Sooner or later, they find themselves, as in our case, economically stressed and militarily extended in wars they can\u2019t afford to win or lose.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-anglo-america"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11717","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11717"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11717\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}