{"id":125360,"date":"2019-01-07T12:00:40","date_gmt":"2019-01-07T12:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=125360"},"modified":"2019-01-04T14:30:45","modified_gmt":"2019-01-04T14:30:45","slug":"ten-grim-climate-scenarios-if-global-temperatures-rise-above-1-5-degrees-celsius","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2019\/01\/ten-grim-climate-scenarios-if-global-temperatures-rise-above-1-5-degrees-celsius\/","title":{"rendered":"Ten Grim Climate Scenarios if Global Temperatures Rise Above 1.5 Degrees Celsius"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Forecast, grim: Scholven power plant in Gelsenkirchen, Germany. If humankind carries on its business-as-usual approach to climate change, there\u2019s a 93 percent chance we\u2019re barreling toward a potentially catastrophic level of warming. (Photo credit: Guy Gorek\/Flickr)<\/p><\/div>\n

Here\u2019s A Peek into Our Climate-Addled Future<\/strong><\/p>\n

3 Jan 2019 –<\/em>The summer of 2018 was intense: deadly wildfires, persistent drought, killer floods and record-breaking heat. Although scientists exercise great care before linking individual weather events to climate change, the rise in global temperatures caused by human activities has been found to increase the severity<\/a>, likelihood<\/a> and duration<\/a> of such conditions.<\/p>\n

Globally, 2018 is on pace to be the fourth-hottest year on record. Only 2015, 2016 and 2017 were hotter. The Paris climate agreement aims to hold temperature rise below 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius, but if humankind carries on its business-as-usual approach to climate change, there\u2019s a 93 percent chance<\/a> we\u2019re barreling toward a world that is 4 degrees Celsius warmer by the end of the century, a potentially catastrophic level of warming.<\/p>\n

A Warning and a Reckoning<\/strong><\/p>\n

In 1992, 1,700 scientists around the world issued a chilling \u201cwarning to humanity<\/a>.\u201d The infamous letter declared that humans were on a \u201ccollision course\u201d with the natural world if they did not rein in their environmentally damaging activities.<\/p>\n

Such apocalyptic thinking might be easy to mock, and not entirely helpful in inspiring political action if end times are nigh. In 2017, however, more than 15,000 scientists from 184 countries co-signed their names to an updated\u2014and even bleaker\u2014version of the 1992 manifesto.<\/p>\n

The latest version<\/a>, titled \u201cWorld Scientists\u2019 Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice,\u201d asserts that most of the environmental challenges raised in the original letter\u2014i.e., depletion of freshwater sources, overfishing, plummeting biodiversity, unsustainable human population growth\u2014remain unsolved and are \u201cgetting far worse.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cEspecially troubling is the current trajectory of potentially catastrophic climate change due to rising [greenhouse gases] from burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and agricultural production\u2014particularly from farming ruminants for meat consumption,\u201d the paper states.<\/p>\n

\u201cMoreover,\u201d the authors wrote, \u201cWe have unleashed a mass extinction event, the sixth in roughly 540 million years, wherein many current life forms could be annihilated or at least committed to extinction by the end of this century.\u201d<\/p>\n

But they stressed that, \u201cSoon it will be too late to shift course away from our failing trajectory, and time is running out.\u201d<\/p>\n

More recently, President Trump\u2019s own administration released on November 23 the 1,600-page Fourth National Climate Assessment<\/a>, a quadrennial report compiled by 13 federal agencies. This report paints a particularly grim picture, including more frequent droughts, floods, wildfires and extreme weather, declining crop yields, the rise of disease-carrying insects and rising seas\u2014all of which could reduce U.S. gross domestic product by a tenth by the end of the century<\/a>.<\/p>\n

So what we saw this summer? Unless humanity gets its act together, we can expect much worse to come. Here\u2019s a peek into our climate-addled future.<\/p>\n

1. Species Extinction<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Amazon, one of the most biodiverse places on Earth, could lose about 70 percent of its plant and amphibian species and more than 60 percent of its birds, mammals and reptile species from unchecked climate change, according to a 2018 study<\/a> by the University of East Anglia, the James Cook University and World Wildlife Fund (WWF), which analyzed the impact of climate change on nearly 80,000 species of plants, birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians inhabiting the WWF\u2019s 35 \u201cPriority Places<\/a>\u201d for conservation.<\/p>\n

The study\u2019s most alarming projection was for the Miombo Woodlands<\/a> in central and Southern Africa, one of the priority places most vulnerable to climate change. If global temperatures rose 4.5 degrees Celsius, the researchers projected the loss of 90 percent of amphibians and 80 percent or more of plants, birds, mammals and reptiles.<\/p>\n

This incredible loss of biodiversity affects humans, too. \u201cThis is not simply about the disappearance of certain species from particular places, but about profound changes to ecosystems that provide vital services to hundreds of millions of people,\u201d the authors warned.<\/p>\n

2. Food Insecurity and Nutritional Deficiencies<\/strong><\/p>\n

While climate change could actually benefit<\/a> colder parts of the world with longer growing seasons, tropical and subtropical regions in Africa, South America, India and Europe could lose vast chunks of arable land. For coastal countries, rising seas<\/a> could inundate farming land and drinking water with salt.<\/p>\n

Staple crops such as wheat, rice, maize and soybeans, which provide two-thirds of the world\u2019s caloric intake<\/a>, are sensitive to temperature and precipitation and to rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. A sweeping 2017 study<\/a> showed that every degree-Celsius of warming will reduce average global yields of wheat by 6 percent, rice by 3.2 percent, maize by 7.4 percent and soybeans by 3.1 percent.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s more, according to a recent paper<\/a>, carbon dioxide levels expected by 2050 will make staple crops such as rice and wheat less nutritious. This could result in 175 million people becoming zinc deficient (which can cause a wide array of health impacts<\/a>, including impaired growth and immune function and impotence) and 122 million people becoming protein deficient (which can cause<\/a> edema, fat accumulation in liver cells, loss of muscle mass and in children, stunted growth). Additionally, the researchers found that more than 1 billion women and children could lose a large portion of their dietary iron intake, putting them at increased risk of anemia and other diseases.<\/p>\n

3. Farewell to Coastal Cities and Island Nations<\/strong><\/p>\n

Unless we cut heat-trapping greenhouse gases, scientists predict sea levels could rise up to three feet by 2100, according to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment report<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This could bring high tides and surges from strong storms, and be devastating for the millions of people living in coastal areas. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published a report<\/a>earlier this year that predicted parts of Miami, New York City and San Francisco could flood every day by 2100, under a sea-level rise scenario of three feet.<\/p>\n

Entire countries could also be swallowed by the sea due to global warming. Kiribati, a nation consisting of 33 atolls and reef islands in the South Pacific, is expected to be one of the first<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Kiribati won\u2019t be alone. At least eight<\/a> islands have already disappeared into the Pacific Ocean due to rising sea levels since 2016<\/a>, and an April study<\/a> said that most coral atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century.<\/p>\n

4. Social Conflict and Mass Migration<\/strong><\/p>\n

In 2017, New York Magazine Deputy Editor David Wallace-Wells wrote an alarming and widely read essay called \u201cThe Uninhabitable Earth<\/a>\u201d that focused almost entirely on worst-case climate scenarios. He discussed that, with diminished resources and increased migration caused by flooding, \u201csocial conflict could more than double this century.\u201d<\/p>\n

The article\u2019s scientific merit has been fiercely debated<\/a>, but the World Bank did conclude<\/a> in March 2018 that water scarcity, crop failure and rising sea levels could displace 143 million people by 2050. The report focused on Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America, which represent 55 percent of the developing world\u2019s population. Unsurprisingly, the poorest and most climate-vulnerable areas will be hardest hit.<\/p>\n

5. Lethal Heat<\/strong><\/p>\n

Today, around 30 percent of the global population suffers deadly levels of heat and humidity for at least 20 days a year, a 2017 analysis<\/a> showed. If emissions continue increasing at current rates, the researchers suggested 74 percent of the global population\u2014three in four people\u2014will experience more than 20 days of lethal heat waves.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur attitude towards the environment has been so reckless that we are running out of good choices for the future,\u201d Camilo Mora of the University of Hawaii at Manoa, the study\u2019s lead author, told National Geographic<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor heatwaves, our options are now between bad or terrible,\u201d he added. \u201cMany people around the world are already paying the ultimate price of heatwaves.\u201d<\/p>\n

6. Surging Wildfires<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Camp Fire, which burned more than 150,000 acres in Butte County in November, was the deadliest and most destructive fire in California\u2019s history, killing at least 85 people. The Mendocino Complex Fire, which started in July and torched roughly 300,000 acres in Northern California, was the largest fire in the state\u2019s modern history. The second-largest was 2017\u2019s Thomas Fire, which burned 281,000 acres in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties.<\/p>\n

But the Golden State\u2019s fires will only get worse, according to California\u2019s Fourth Climate Change Assessment<\/a> released by the governor\u2019s office in August. If greenhouse gases continue rising, large fires that burn more than 25,000 acres will increase by 50 percent by the end of the century, and the volume of acres that will be burned by wildfires in an average year will increase by 77 percent, the report said.<\/p>\n

\u201cHigher spring and summer temperatures and earlier spring snowmelt typically<\/a> cause soils to be drier for longer, increasing the likelihood of drought and a longer wildfire season<\/a>, particularly in the western United States,\u201d The Union of Concerned Scientists explained in a blog post<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese hot, dry conditions also increase the likelihood that wildfires will be more intense and long-burning<\/a> once they are started by lightning strikes or human error.\u201d<\/p>\n

7. Hurricanes: More Frequent, More Intense<\/strong><\/p>\n

It\u2019s not currently clear if changes in climate directly led to 2017\u2019s major hurricanes, including Harvey, Irma, Maria and Ophelia. What we do know is this: Moist air over warm ocean water is hurricane fuel.<\/p>\n

\u201cEverything in the atmosphere now is impacted by the fact that it\u2019s warmer than it\u2019s ever been,\u201d CNN Senior Meteorologist Brandon Miller said<\/a>. \u201cThere\u2019s more water vapor in the atmosphere. The ocean is warmer. And all of that really only pushes the impact in one direction, and that is worse: higher surge in storms, higher rainfall in storms.\u201d<\/p>\n

NOAA concluded<\/a> this June that, \u201cIt is likely that greenhouse warming will cause hurricanes in the coming century to be more intense globally and have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes.\u201d<\/p>\n

8. Melted Polar Ice and Permafrost<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Arctic is warming at a rate twice as fast as the rest of the planet, and continued loss of ice and snow cover \u201cwill cause big changes to ocean currents, to circulation of the atmosphere, to fisheries and especially to the air temperature, which will warm up because there isn\u2019t any ice cooling the surface anymore,\u201d Peter Wadhams, head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at the University of Cambridge, told Public Radio International<\/a>. \u201cThat will have an effect, for instance, on air currents over Greenland, which will increase the melt rate of the Greenland ice sheet.\u201d<\/p>\n

Not only that, frozen Arctic soil\u2014or permafrost\u2014is starting to melt, causing the release of methane, a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. It\u2019s said that the permafrost holds 1.8 trillion tons of carbon, more than twice as much as is currently suspended in the Earth\u2019s atmosphere. Wadhams explained that the fear is that the permafrost will melt in \u201cone rapid go.\u201d If that happens, \u201cThe amount of methane that comes out will be a huge pulse, and that would have a detectable climate change, maybe 0.6 of a degree. \u2026 So, it would be just a big jerk to the global climate.\u201d<\/p>\n

9. The Spread of Pathogens<\/strong><\/p>\n

Disturbingly, permafrost is full of pathogens, and its melting could unleash once-frozen bacteria and viruses, The Atlantic<\/a> reported. In 2016, dozens of people were hospitalized and a 12-year-old boy died after an outbreak of anthrax in Siberia. More than 2,000 reindeer were also infected. Anthrax hadn\u2019t been seen in the region for 75 years. The cause? Scientists suggested that a heat wave thawed a reindeer carcass that was infected with the disease decades ago, according to NPR<\/a>.<\/p>\n

While we shouldn\u2019t get too frightened about Earth\u2019s once-frozen pathogens wiping us out (yet), the warming planet has also widened the geographic ranges of ticks, mosquitoes and other organisms that carry disease.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe now have dengue in southern parts of Texas,\u201d George C. Stewart, McKee Professor of Microbial Pathogenesis and chair of the department of veterinary pathobiology at the University of Missouri, told Scientific American<\/a>. \u201cMalaria is seen at higher elevations and latitudes as temperatures climb. And the cholera agent, Vibrio cholerae<\/em>, replicates better at higher temperatures.\u201d<\/p>\n

10. Dead Corals<\/strong><\/p>\n

As the world\u2019s largest carbon sink, our oceans bear the brunt of climate change. But the more carbon it absorbs (about 22 million tons a day), the more acidic the waters become. This could put a whole host of marine life at risk, including coral reef ecosystems, the thousands of species that depend on them and the estimated 1 billion people<\/a> around the globe who rely on healthy reefs for sustenance and income. According to Science<\/a>, \u201cResearchers predict that with increasing levels of acidification, most coral reefs will be gradually dissolving away<\/a> by the end of the century.\u201d<\/p>\n

These climate predictions are worst-case scenarios, but there are many more dangers to consider in our warming world. A report<\/a> recently published in the journal Nature Climate Change found \u201cevidence for 467 pathways by which human health, water, food, economy, infrastructure and security have been recently impacted by climate hazards such as warming, heatwaves, precipitation, drought, floods, fires, storms, sea-level rise and changes in natural land cover and ocean chemistry.\u201d<\/p>\n

Half a Degree Matters<\/strong><\/p>\n

Since the 19th century, the Earth has warmed by 1 degree Celsius. Now, a major IPCC special report<\/a> released in October warns that even just a half-degree more of warming could be disastrous. \u201cEvery extra bit of warming matters, especially since warming of 1.5\u00baC or higher increases the risk associated with long-lasting or irreversible changes, such as the loss of some ecosystems,\u201d said<\/a> Hans-Otto P\u00f6rtner, co-chair of IPCC Working Group II.<\/p>\n

The panel said<\/a> that \u201climiting global warming to 1.5\u00b0C compared to 2\u00b0C could go hand in hand with ensuring a more sustainable and equitable society.\u201d<\/p>\n

With President Trump saying he doesn\u2019t believe his own administration\u2019s climate report<\/a>, that sustainable and equitable society remains a distant dream.<\/p>\n

_______________________________________<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Lorraine Chow is a freelance writer and reporter based in South Carolina.<\/em><\/p>\n

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