{"id":133578,"date":"2019-05-20T12:00:45","date_gmt":"2019-05-20T11:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=133578"},"modified":"2019-05-14T09:32:37","modified_gmt":"2019-05-14T08:32:37","slug":"the-plot-to-kill-venezuela","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2019\/05\/the-plot-to-kill-venezuela\/","title":{"rendered":"The Plot to Kill Venezuela"},"content":{"rendered":"

13 May 2019 – <\/em>Hugo Ch\u00e1vez knew that Venezuela was very vulnerable. Its oil revenues account for 98 percent of its export earnings. Ch\u00e1vez was familiar with the thinking of Juan Pablo P\u00e9rez Alfonzo, Venezuela\u2019s minister of mines and hydrocarbons in the early 1960s and one of the architects of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). In 1976, P\u00e9rez Alfonzo wrote, \u201cTen years from now, twenty years from now, you will see, oil will bring us ruin.\u201d He called Venezuela\u2019s oil the \u201cdevil\u2019s excrement.\u201d If oil prices remained high, as they were when Ch\u00e1vez came to power in 1999, then oil revenue could be used to finance a project for the landless workers. If oil prices collapsed, then the country\u2014laden with debt\u2014would face severe challenges.<\/p>\n

Venezuela\u2019s economy had not been diversified by the oligarchy that ruled the country before Ch\u00e1vez took office. By 1929, it had become apparent to the oligarchy that the flood of oil revenues had damaged the agricultural sector\u2014which shrank in the decades to come. There was neither an attempt to enhance agricultural production (and make Venezuela food sovereign) nor was there any attempt to use oil profits for a wider industrialization program. Occasionally, presidents\u2014such as Carlos Andr\u00e9s P\u00e9rez in the 1970s\u2014would pledge to use the influx of oil revenues to diversify the economy, but when oil prices would fall\u2014as they did periodically\u2014Venezuela went into punishing debt.<\/p>\n

It would have taken Ch\u00e1vez a generation to pivot the economy away from its reliance upon oil revenues. But Ch\u00e1vez and the Bolivarian Revolution simply did not have the time. In the 2000s, when oil prices remained high, the revenues were used to enhance the social lives of the landless workers, most of whom suffered high rates of malnutrition and illiteracy. Gripped by the need to deal with the social blight amongst the landless workers, Ch\u00e1vez and the Bolivarian Revolution simply did not have the capacity to tackle reliance upon imports of food and of most consumer goods.<\/p>\n

In 2009, a U.S. State Department cable<\/a> from Caracas noted that the decline in oil prices had placed the Venezuelan government in great peril. The government\u2019s oil company\u2014PDVSA\u2014had provided the revenues to fund the social missions, the programs to lift the low standard of social life for the landless workers. \u201cUnless oil prices rise significantly,\u201d wrote John Caulfield from Caracas, \u201cwe are increasingly certain that the game will be up, from an economic standpoint, by early to mid 2010, as no one will be willing to continue to finance PDVSA and a vicious cycle will be inevitable.\u201d The June 2008 price was $163.52; by January 2009, it had collapsed to $50.43. Venezuela\u2019s Bolivarian Revolution was in peril.<\/p>\n

Sanctions<\/strong><\/p>\n

The United States government and the Venezuelan oligarchy first tried to overthrow the Bolivarian Revolution in 2002. Great hope in Ch\u00e1vez prevented a discredited oligarchy from victory. Oil revenues then allowed Ch\u00e1vez to build up pillars of support for the revolution. But the depletion of the oil prices from 2009 threatened the Bolivarian process. Ch\u00e1vez died in 2013. The combination of low oil prices and the death of Ch\u00e1vez changed the political calculations.<\/p>\n

Egged on by the United States, opposition leaders Leopoldo L\u00f3pez and Mar\u00eda Corina Machado called for demonstrations against the newly elected president Nicol\u00e1s Maduro in 2014. It was clear that the protests were intended as a provocation, drawing a crackdown from the government forces, which allowed U.S. President Barack Obama to sign the Venezuela Defense of Human Rights and Civil Society Act of 2014. This act allowed Obama to sanction individuals in the Venezuelan government. It was extended in 2016 and will expire\u2014unless extended again\u2014at the end of 2019. The sanctions policy was to be the new lever to pressure a vulnerable Venezuela.<\/p>\n

In March 2015, Obama declared Venezuela a \u201cthreat\u201d to U.S. \u201cnational security,\u201d an extreme step, and sanctioned a handful of Venezuelan government officials. The administration of Donald Trump only sharpened and deepened the policy. Obama sanctioned seven individuals, while Trump has\u2014thus far\u2014sanctioned 75 individuals. Obama forged the spear; Trump has thrown it at the heart of Venezuela.<\/p>\n

Sanctioned Economy<\/strong><\/p>\n

These early sanctions went after individuals, offering an inconvenience for some Venezuelan politicians and for sections of the state. The U.S. government would soon move the sanctions from individual inconvenience to social collapse. Trump\u2019s policy, from 2017, was to hit Venezuela\u2019s petroleum industry very hard. The U.S. government prevented Venezuelan government bonds from trading in U.S. financial markets, and then it prevented the state\u2019s energy company\u2014PDVSA\u2014from receiving payments for its export of petroleum products. The U.S. Treasury Department froze $7 billion in PDVSA assets, and it did not allow U.S. firms to export naphtha into Venezuela (a crucial input for the extraction of heavy crude oil).<\/p>\n

The country relied on oil revenues to import food and medicines. The theft of the $7 billion in PDVSA assets, the seizure of the $1.2 billion in Venezuelan gold in the Bank of England, the transfer of ownership of the PDVSA subsidiary CITGO in the United States to the opposition and the pressure on oil exports squeezed Venezuela very hard. U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton estimated that the United States (and Canadian) sanctions had cost Venezuela about $11 billion.<\/p>\n

When the United States began to put pressure on transportation firms to stop carrying Venezuelan oil, the schemes to export oil to the Caribbean (PetroCaribe) suffered<\/a>, as did the fraternal delivery of oil to Cuba. This policy inflamed the situation in Haiti\u2014which is in a long-term political crisis\u2014and it has deepened the crisis in Cuba\u2014which has now had to enforce rationing<\/a>. The countries in the Caribbean, which relied upon Venezuelan oil, are now suffering deeply.<\/p>\n

Impact of the Sanctions<\/strong><\/p>\n

Economists Mark Weisbrot and Jeffrey Sachs calculate that the U.S. sanctions have resulted in the death of 40,000 Venezuelan civilians between 2017 and 2018. In their report<\/a>\u2014\u201cEconomic Sanctions as Collective Punishment: The Case of Venezuela\u201d (April 2019)\u2014they point out that this death toll is merely the start of what is to come. An additional 300,000 Venezuelans are at risk \u201cbecause of lack of access to medicines or treatment,\u201d including 80,000 \u201cwith HIV who have not had antiretroviral treatment since 2017.\u201d There are 4 million people with diabetes and hypertension, most of whom cannot access insulin or cardiovascular medicine. \u201cThese numbers,\u201d they write, \u201cby themselves virtually guarantee that the current sanctions, which are much more severe than those implemented before this year, are a death sentence for tens of thousands of Venezuelans.\u201d If oil revenues drop by 67 percent in 2019\u2014as has been projected\u2014the death of tens of thousands of Venezuelans is guaranteed.<\/p>\n

Venezuela has imported food goods worth only $2.46 billion in 2018 compared to $11.2 billion in 2013. If food imports remain low and Venezuela is unable to hastily grow enough food, then\u2014as Weisbrot and Sachs argue\u2014the situation will contribute to \u201cmalnutrition and stunting in children.\u201d<\/p>\n

In 2018, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights\u2014Michelle Bachelet\u2014made the case that the cause of the deterioration of well-being in Venezuela predates the sanctions (a report<\/a> from Human Rights Watch and Johns Hopkins University underlined this point). It is certainly true that the fall of oil prices had a marked impact on Venezuela\u2019s external revenues and the reliance upon food imports\u2014a century-old problem\u2014had marked the country before Trump\u2019s very harsh sanctions.<\/p>\n

But, the next year, Bachelet told<\/a> the UN Security Council that \u201calthough this pervasive and devastating economic and social crisis began before the imposition of the first economic sanctions in 2017, I am concerned that the recent sanctions on financial transfers related to the sale of Venezuelan oil within the United States may contribute to aggravating the economic crisis, with possible repercussions on people\u2019s basic rights and wellbeing.\u201d A debate over whether it is mismanagement and corruption by the Maduro government or the sanctions that are the author of the crisis is largely irrelevant. The point is that a combination of the reliance on oil revenues and the sanctions policy has crushed the policy space for any stability in the country.<\/p>\n

Illegal Sanctions<\/strong><\/p>\n

Weisbrot and Sachs say that these sanctions \u201cwould fit the definition of collective punishment,\u201d as laid out in the Hague Convention (1899) and in the Fourth Geneva Convention (1949). The United States is a signatory of both of these frameworks. \u201cCollective penalties,\u201d says the Fourth Geneva Convention, \u201care prohibited.\u201d Tens of thousands of Venezuelans are dead. Tens of thousands more are under threat of death. Yet, no one has stood up against the grave breach of the convention in terms of collective punishment. There is not a whiff of interest in the UN Secretary General\u2019s office to open a tribunal on the accusations of collective punishment against Venezuela. Allegations of this seriousness are brushed under the rug.<\/p>\n

_______________________________________________<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/em>Vijay Prashad is an Indian historian, editor and journalist. He is a writing fellow and chief correspondent at <\/em>Globetrotter<\/a>, a project of the Independent Media Institute. He is the chief editor of LeftWord Books<\/a> and the director of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research. <\/em>He is the author of 18 books, including <\/em>Arab Spring, Libyan Winter (AK Press, 2012), <\/em>The Poorer Nations: A Possible History of the Global South (Verso, 2013), Red Star Over the Third World <\/a>(LeftWord, 2017) and The Death of the Nation and the Future of the Arab Revolution <\/a>(University of California Press, 2016).<\/em><\/p>\n

Go to Original – go.ind.media<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13 May 2019 – Weisbrot and Sachs say that these illegal sanctions \u201cfit the definition of collective punishment,\u201d as laid out in the Hague Convention (1899) and in the Geneva Convention (1949). Tens of thousands of Venezuelans are dead. Tens of thousands more are under threat of death. Yet, no one has stood up against the grave breach of the convention in terms of collective punishment. There is not a whiff of interest in the UN Secretary General\u2019s office to open a tribunal on the accusations of collective punishment against Venezuela.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":104534,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1065,120,393,541,559,109,287,557,126],"class_list":["post-133578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latin-america-and-the-caribbean","tag-chavismo","tag-conflict","tag-coup","tag-latin-america-caribbean","tag-maduro","tag-politics","tag-power","tag-venezuela","tag-violence"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133578","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=133578"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133578\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104534"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=133578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=133578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=133578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}