{"id":137677,"date":"2019-07-15T12:00:55","date_gmt":"2019-07-15T11:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=137677"},"modified":"2024-09-23T14:41:53","modified_gmt":"2024-09-23T13:41:53","slug":"a-call-to-apply-the-transcend-method-to-the-middle-east-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2019\/07\/a-call-to-apply-the-transcend-method-to-the-middle-east-conflict\/","title":{"rendered":"A Call to Apply the TRANSCEND Method to the Middle East Conflict"},"content":{"rendered":"

Before the UN Conference on a Nuclear Weapons [WMD]\u00a0Free Zone in the Middle East<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In the spirit of TRANSCEND<\/em> co-founder and friend Dieter Fischer, I\u2019ll start with a joke. When Arafat and Rabin die they ask God, \u201cWhen will there be peace in the Middle East?\u201d<\/em> God says,\u00a0\u201cNot in my lifetime.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

In 1995, after being asked when Israel will give up nuclear weapons, Former Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres said,\u00a0\u00a0“Give me peace, and we’ll give up the nuclear program. That’s the whole story.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n

Current Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “As far as a nuclear weapons-free zone, you know, when the lion lies down with the lamb, and you don’t need a new lamb every day to satisfy the lion, then we might have this kind of transformation in the Middle East.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Understandably, many Israelis, with their earliest self-image as a tiny country surrounded by a sea of enemies (less accurate now) believe that without nukes Israel would not exist. Peres believed that even the perception,\u00a0\u201cin itself, can act as a deterrent.”<\/em> He added: “Let them suspect. I don’t see any reason to allay their suspicions.<\/em>\u201d <\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Edward Hicks, Peaceable Kingdom, c. 1834, oil on canvas – Lion with Lamb<\/p><\/div>\n

Stumbling Blocks to a Middle East Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone<\/strong><\/p>\n

After decades of controversy and opposition, there will finally be a UN Conference on a Middle East Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (MENWFZ) in New York, November 18 – 22, 2019.<\/p>\n

Israel will not attend.<\/p>\n

UN resolutions\u00a0have called for a\u00a0MENWFZ\u00a0since 1974.\u00a0In 1995, at the 25 year mark\u00a0of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), it was granted an indefinite extension,\u00a0calling for \u201cthe establishment of an effectively verifiable Middle East zone free of weapons of mass destruction, nuclear, chemical and biological, and their delivery systems.\u201d\u00a0with a\u00a0commitment to hold a conference on a\u00a0MENWFZ. The 2010\u00a0NPT Review Conference (RevCon), held every 5 years,\u00a0adopted a plan of action including a\u00a0conference on the establishment of a\u00a0MENWFZ\u00a0and all WMDs to be held in Helsinki in November of 2012. It didn\u2019t happen.<\/p>\n

At the end of the 4-week 2015 NPT RevCon\u00a0at 9 o\u2019clock on May 22, the last Friday night, delegates failed to reach consensus over the\u00a0MENWFZ, opposed by the US, UK, and Canada. Virtually all NGO civil society representatives and most states parties were deeply disappointed and frustrated with the opposition to this conference, with\u00a0no shortage of mutual blame.<\/p>\n

The US supports other nuclear weapons-free zones that emerge from a\u00a0process reached with the mutual consent of all states in the region. Rose Gottemoeller,\u00a0then U.S. Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security, stated\u00a0that there was no consensus and the process did\u00a0“not build the foundation of trust necessary for holding a productive conference that could reflect the concerns of all regional states.\u201d Secretary John Kerry claimed there could be no agreement without the consent of all states.\u00a0Canada demanded that Israel be included in any negotiations.<\/p>\n

There is some legitimacy to the rationales of the US, UK and Canada, although they do not resolve or transform the conflict, I believe because our field is not well known. Foreign policy is dominated by external pressure, or at best, carrots and sticks, the way you treat a donkey.<\/p>\n

Those who have desired a MENWFZ for decades perceive this opposition as US protection of Israel from pressure to give up their nukes. Note that Israel is not the only issue for this conference which will deal with Iran, Saudi Arabia and other regional issues.<\/p>\n

From the perspective of eliminating the symptom, i.e. nuclear weapons, opposing the MENWFZ conference was a terrible thing. From the perspective of considering the underlying conflict dynamics, those opposing the conference have a point.<\/p>\n

For Israel, not a party to the NPT, a durable peace is a prerequisite to giving up its nuclear weapons, which will not happen in God\u2019s lifetime.\u00a0 For the Arab states Israel giving up nuclear weapons is a prerequisite for peace.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Reframing the Debate: First and Second Order Change<\/strong><\/p>\n

Most foreign policies primarily focus on eliminating symptoms, i.e. nukes. This is known as First Order Change, a concept from family therapy, systems theory and organizational transformation. Second Order Change addresses the relationship system.<\/p>\n

FIRST ORDER CHANGE<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>SECOND ORDER CHANGE<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Old way of thinking \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 New way of thinking<\/p>\n

Adresses symptoms \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Addresses causes<\/p>\n

Quantitative change\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Qualitative change<\/p>\n

Change in behavior\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Change in relationship<\/p>\n

Change within a system\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Transformation of the system<\/p>\n

Linear, partial\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Multidimensional, multi-level<\/p>\n

External\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Deep<\/p>\n

Transactional\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Transformational<\/p>\n

Continuous change\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Discontinuous leap<\/p>\n

Conflict resolution\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Conflict transformation<\/p>\n

Compromise, unstable\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Create new reality, win-win, enduring, stable<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

The TRANSCEND Method and Second Order Change<\/strong><\/p>\n

We have been stuck with no way out of the Middle East Conflict or the threat of WMDs.\u00a0 After decades of efforts, peace processes, agreements and treaties, we have fragile progress, setbacks, escalation and increasing existential threats. Our global politics focuses on the symptom and not on causes.<\/p>\n

When I first discovered TRANSCEND and the concept of conflict transformation, creating a new reality (as opposed to conflict resolution), a light went on. It opened up a new category of thinking and possibilities. When I raise this idea at think tank events, people get it. Our old paradigm is crumbling, failing to solve problems or increase security. We are overripe for a new paradigm with sound and superior solutions.<\/p>\n

Einstein said, \u201c<\/em>The splitting of the atom has changed everything except the way we think. Thus we drift toward unparalleled catastrophe.\u00a0 We shall require a substantially new manner of thinking if mankind is to survive.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Old Paradigm, Arms Control and First Order Change<\/strong><\/p>\n

The 2020 UN NPT Review Conference will mark 50 years of measures to control and eliminate nuclear weapons, all on the level of First Order Change, including bilateral and multilateral arms control agreements, nuclear test bans, fissile material cutoffs, limiting numbers, restricting ranges, nuclear-weapon-free zones, de- alerting, no-first-use policies, risk reduction, inspection, verification, and a treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons (not yet in force, passed with votes of 122 countries and opposed by nuclear weapons states and their allies). See: https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2017\/10\/transcending-nukes\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Powerful countries use coercive policies including deterrence, sanctions, maximum pressure, punishment, isolation, threats, military actions and so on which provoke fear, anger, moral outrage, resistance, instability and escalation.\u00a0 This is not sustainable, and perhaps not survivable.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.\u201d<\/em> —<\/strong> Albert Einstein<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

If You Need Brain Surgery, You Don\u2019t Go to a Podiatrist\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Our approaches to addressing deep, enduring conflicts mostly fail, often making matters worse. They rely on superficial, concrete, black-and-white thinking and coercion. The conflicts we face are more like political brain surgery \u2013 they are deep, complex, partially invisible, with two hemispheres connected by a Corpus Collosum (thicker in females), dendritic connections (deficiencies associated with depression), synapses and so on.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s approach every conflict using higher level brain functions, performing political brain surgery and \u201cpolitical therapy,\u201d like family therapy but bigger.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

The Galtung\/TRANSCEND Conflict Diagram
TRANSCEND Method<\/p><\/div>\n

New Paradigm, Conflict Transformation and Second Order Change<\/strong><\/p>\n

For enduring security, let\u2019s apply variations of the TRANSCEND Method, including analysis, diagnosis, prognosis and therapy, identifying all parties’ legitimate goals, just grievances, and basic needs including safety, identity, dignity, self-determination, and sovereignty, using creativity to bridge incompatible goals, creating a new reality, as Johan Galtung has taught us. We also value the ancient Hawaiian model of Ho\u2019o Pono Pono<\/em>, meaning \u201csetting things right, very right\u201d and other processes for healing after protracted collective trauma.<\/p>\n

I detect much receptivity to these ideas when they are clearly articulated, framed and presented in a way that people understand as self-evident. The concept of Second Order Change <\/strong>is compelling solutions oriented and off the left\/right axis.<\/p>\n

Motivated by my experience living in DC in the think tanks and at the UN nuclear conferences, I am beginning three initiatives to help facilitate the paradigm shift and invite your comments, ideas, collaboration and support.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Coalition for<\/strong> Second Order Change<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    At the UN I have represented TRANSCEND, Psychologists for Social Responsibility, GMU School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution, and Mediators Beyond Borders, often the only person. There is far more power in building a coalition.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Interdisciplinary Symposium on Second Order Change Approaches to Overcome Barriers to a MENWFZ<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Anticipating the dynamics of the November UN Conference on the MENWFZ I am beginning to plan a an interdisciplinary conference on second order change in the Middle East Conflict in DC before the UN Conference with experts in social and behavioral sciences, conflict analysts, historians, and regional experts committed to deep, comprehensive analysis and problem solving. As far as I know, this has never been done.<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Interdisciplinary Task Force\/Study Group on Second Order Change<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        This group will prepare and design the conference and continue to analyze dynamics in real time, like a grand rounds or ongoing case conference.<\/p>\n

        \u00a0<\/strong>I invite readers to send ideas about solutions in the comments section. As a point of reference we can begin with Johan Galtung\u2019s solutions in his book, 50 Years, 100 Peace & Conflict Perspectives<\/a><\/em>, Ch. 16.<\/p>\n

        \u201cThere’s been a quantum leap technologically in our age, but unless there’s another quantum leap in human relations, unless we learn to live in a new way towards one another, there will be a catastrophe<\/em>.\u201d <\/em>\u00a0 — <\/strong>Albert Einstein<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

        Can the TRANSCEND Method be the quantum leap in human relations?\u00a0 It is up to us to collaborate to facilitate the transition to a more sustainable, survivable paradigm.<\/p>\n

        Israel will not attend, but at least one Israeli will, Sharon Dolev, the courageous Director of the Israeli Disarmament Movement, and not the most popular woman in Israel. I will be there too, representing TRANSCEND.<\/p>\n

        The Middle East Treaty Organization<\/strong><\/p>\n

        Sharon Dolev, along with Paul Ingram, former executive director of BASIC, British American Security Information Council, and Emad Kiyaei, of the American Iranian Council are leaders in a new initiative, the Middle East Treaty Organization, the METO Project, an open-ended, evolving text, undergoing continuous revisions.\u00a0 They held a side event at the UN NPT PrepCom on May 8, 2019 with the support of the Irish Ministry of Foreign Affairs called\u00a0Achieving the Possible: a WMD-free zone in the Middle East<\/em>: Presenting Different Approaches to Overcome the Stalemate Concerning a WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East<\/em><\/a>. There was a constructive discussion about the need for innovation, new thinking, and described here.<\/p>\n

        Achieving the Possible: WMD-free zone in the Middle East<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n