{"id":145483,"date":"2019-10-21T12:00:34","date_gmt":"2019-10-21T11:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=145483"},"modified":"2019-10-17T10:29:23","modified_gmt":"2019-10-17T09:29:23","slug":"china-india-arent-best-friends-but-agreed-strategic-adjustment-might-prevent-war-between-asian-superpowers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2019\/10\/china-india-arent-best-friends-but-agreed-strategic-adjustment-might-prevent-war-between-asian-superpowers\/","title":{"rendered":"China & India Aren\u2019t Best Friends \u2013 but Agreed Strategic Adjustment Might Prevent WAR between Asian Superpowers"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) and Chinese President Xi Jinping pose for a picture at Krishna\u2019s Butterball in Mamallapuram, India on October 11, 2019. \u00a9\u00a0 AFP \/ PIB \/ Handout<\/p><\/div>\n

12 Oct 2019 – <\/em>Asia\u2019s No.1 and No.2 powers have longstanding conflicts of interest, but are seeking common ground through \u201cstrategic communication\u201d between their leaders. The goal \u2013 stability \u2013 is pursued with a heavy dose of personal diplomacy.<\/p>\n

An enduring visual of the second \u2018informal summit\u2019 between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the ancient southern Indian port of Mamallapuram on October 11-12 was of the two holding hands aloft in front of a gigantic circular granite boulder on a hilly slope which has miraculously not rolled down for the past 1200 years.<\/p>\n

The gravity-defying balance of Krishna\u2019s butterball despite its structural vulnerability conveyed the essence of the easygoing and freewheeling summit\u2014 China and India are large, mature neighboring countries which can avoid a catastrophic crash in relations through frank interactions of Xi and Modi, who have met seventeen times in the past five years.<\/p>\n

Personal touch from above<\/strong><\/p>\n

Xi\u2019s acknowledgement in Mamallapuram that Modi\u2019s initiative of \u2018informal summits\u2019 (the previous edition was in Wuhan, China, in April 2018) was a \u201cbrilliant idea\u201d,<\/em>\u00a0and his Indian counterpart\u2019s comment that such interactions without preset agendas and deliverables were imparting \u201cnew momentum and trust\u201d,<\/em> suggest that this format is ideally suited to deal with the myriad thorny challenges which bedevil Sino-Indian ties.<\/p>\n

Read more: Modi declares \u2018start of new era\u2019 in India-China relations in \u2018heart-to-heart\u2019 talks with Xi <\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

With Xi ensconced in power indefinitely in China and Modi having recently won a resounding election victory in India, there is a unique convergence of highly concentrated political power in both their hands to remake their respective nations\u2019 foreign policies. Each knows that he has to deal for a long time with the other as a strongman who has total command over bureaucracies and the general publics in China and India.<\/p>\n

For years, the Chinese held a dim view of India as a socially and economically backward<\/a> land, and a stooge of Western imperialism which is no match to China. But India\u2019s rise as an independent \u2018leading power\u2019 under Modi has compelled fullest attention in Beijing.<\/p>\n

The informal summit in Wuhan was prompted by an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation at the Doklam tri-junction in the Himalayas in 2017, when Modi did not flinch during a tense standoff and ultimately both sides\u2019 militaries backed off. Sensing assertiveness by Modi\u2019s India along the 4057-kilometre long disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC) which separates the two countries, China has come to value frequent direct engagement at the level of Xi and Modi as the ultimate guarantor of sustaining \u201cpeace and tranquility\u201d on the border.<\/p>\n

Coexisting with contradictions<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2018Strategic guidance\u2019 from Xi and Modi to their militaries to avoid escalation at the LAC has largely held since the Wuhan summit, with few incursions and face-offs. While protracted negotiations to settle the decades-old border dispute and demarcate contested portions of the LAC have not yielded breakthroughs, the Indian formulation<\/a> of preventing \u201cdifferences from turning into disputes\u201d<\/em> remains a touchstone of the contemporary burst of informal diplomacy.<\/p>\n

Chinese objections to Indian military drills in the Indian-controlled border state of Arunachal Pradesh (which Beijing claims as part of \u2018South Tibet\u2019), and Indian ire at China\u2019s condemnation of India\u2019s \u2018unilateral\u2019 administrative shakeup to end special status for Jammu & Kashmir (a portion of which is in Chinese control) are just two recent flaps that remind how edgy both countries still are regarding sovereignty and border matters.<\/p>\n

Also: Modi-Xi informal ‘summit’ to unfold in the shadow of Kashmir <\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Public opinion in India soured against China during the Doklam clash and again this year when China, at the behest of its \u2018all-weather-ally\u2019 Pakistan, pushed for a UN Security Council \u2018consultation\u2019 on India\u2019s move to abrogate special status of Kashmir.<\/p>\n

Indian complaints against China\u2019s meddling in India\u2019s \u2018internal affairs\u2019 collide with China\u2019s strategy of supporting Pakistan economically, militarily and diplomatically as a way of counterbalancing India\u2019s rise. Just days before Xi and Modi\u2019s extensive talks at Mamallapuram, the Chinese President assured<\/a> Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan that China will \u201csupport Pakistan in issues related to its core interests\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s assessment is that Pakistan is so economically and diplomatically marginalized that it could potentially crumble under Indian pushback and pressure. Shoring up Pakistan and preventing its possible collapse is a strategic necessity for China, which fears imbalance of power if India were to become unchallenged in South Asia and beyond.<\/p>\n

Ironically, if China needs Pakistan to keep India under check, India under Modi has played the card of cozying up to the US and Russia to keep China under check. India\u2019s External Affairs Minister\u2019s explicit rejection<\/a> of the concept of \u201ccontainment of China\u201d<\/em> under a Western umbrella does not mean that New Delhi is complacent about growing Chinese encroachments in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region. Both China and India nurse strategic suspicions about being hemmed in or encircled by the other via third and fourth countries.<\/p>\n

More: India may become winner in US-China trade war <\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Notwithstanding these deep geopolitical misgivings, the fact that Xi and Modi are engaging in \u201copen and cordial\u201d diplomacy where red lines are mentioned and frank reservations are expressed means that Beijing and New Delhi can gauge intentions from the horse\u2019s mouth and follow a gentleman\u2019s code of \u2018agreeing to disagree\u2019. Modi\u2019s comment<\/a> that the two nations had \u201cdecided that we will be sensitive towards each other\u2019s concerns\u201d is as realistic as it gets.<\/p>\n

Escaping Thucydides<\/strong><\/p>\n

Since the geographical reality is that India and China are direct neighbors, and given that India is projected to eventually catch up with China in economic and military power, avoidance of the \u2018Thucydides trap\u2019<\/a> which predicts war between existing hegemons and rising challengers, is absolutely essential.<\/p>\n

The fates of 2.7 billion people, the combined populations of China and India, and of the economic dividend they have been enjoying through fast GDP growth in recent decades, rests on pragmatic restraint and coexistence. Agreements at Mamallapuram to set up special mechanisms to reduce India\u2019s ballooning trade deficit with China and to infuse \u2018trust\u2019 in the defense sectors of the two sides are indicative of this practical spirit.<\/p>\n

Also: BRICS countries will soon account for more than half of the global economy <\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The trend of reciprocal informal bilateral summits, with the next one to happen in China, cannot usher in eternal peace, revive the old sentimental dream of \u2018Hindi Chini bhai bhai<\/em>\u2019 (Indians and Chinese are brothers), or forge a grand anti-Western global alliance. But the summits indicate that Xi and Modi are committed to predictable and stable relations which do not boil over. The curse of Thucydides can only be averted with such cool and calculated minds.<\/p>\n

__________________________________________________<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sreeram Chaulia is a professor and dean at the Jindal School of International Affairs in Sonipat, India. His forthcoming book is \u2018<\/em>Trumped: Emerging Powers in a Post-American World\u2019.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 rt.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12 Oct 2019 – Asia\u2019s No.1 and No.2 powers have longstanding conflicts of interest, but are seeking common ground through \u201cstrategic communication\u201d between their leaders. The goal \u2013 stability \u2013 is pursued with a heavy dose of personal diplomacy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":145484,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[180],"tags":[1149,239,244,272,485,1044,267,759,504,444,119,109,1043,380,953],"class_list":["post-145483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-brics","tag-asia-and-the-pacific","tag-brics","tag-china","tag-cooperation","tag-diplomacy","tag-east-asia","tag-geopolitics","tag-india","tag-international-relations","tag-nonviolence","tag-peace","tag-politics","tag-sco","tag-solutions","tag-south-asia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145483","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=145483"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145483\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/145484"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=145483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=145483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=145483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}