{"id":146636,"date":"2019-11-04T12:00:03","date_gmt":"2019-11-04T12:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=146636"},"modified":"2024-09-23T14:41:34","modified_gmt":"2024-09-23T13:41:34","slug":"caliph-closure-he-died-like-a-dog","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2019\/11\/caliph-closure-he-died-like-a-dog\/","title":{"rendered":"Caliph Closure: \u2018He Died Like a Dog\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trump\u2019s victory-lap movie version buries the embarrassing story of deploying tanks to \u2018protect\u2019 Syrian oilfields.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"\"<\/a>

A screenshot of a propaganda video from 2014 allegedly shows Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Photo: AFP \/ al-Furqan Media<\/p><\/div>\n

28 Oct 2019 – <\/em>\u201cHe died like a dog.\u201d President Trump could not have scripted a better one-liner as he got ready for his Obama bin Laden close-up in front of the whole world.<\/p>\n

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, fake caliph, ISIS\/Daesh leader, the most wanted man on the planet, was \u201cbrought to justice\u201d under Trump\u2019s watch. The dead dog caliph is now positioned as the ultimate foreign policy winning trophy ahead of 2020 reelection.<\/p>\n

The climatic scenes of the inevitable-as-death-and-taxes movie or Netflix series to come are already written. (Trump: I \u201cwatched it like a movie.\u201d) Cowardly uber-terrorist cornered in a dead-end tunnel, eight helicopter gunships hovering above, dogs barking in the darkness, three terrified children taken as hostages, coward detonates a suicide vest, tunnel collapses over himself and the children.<\/p>\n

A crack forensic team carrying samples of the fake caliph\u2019s DNA apparently does its job in record time. The remains of the self-exploded target \u2013 then sealed in plastic bags \u2013 confirm it: it\u2019s Baghdadi.\u00a0In the dead of night, it\u2019s time for the commando unit to go back to Irbil, a 70-minute flight over northeast Syria and northwest Iraq. Cut to Trump\u2019s presser. Mission accomplished. Roll credits.<\/em><\/p>\n

This all happened at a compound only 300 meters away from the village of Barisha, in Idlib, rural northwest Syria, only 5km from the Syria-Turkish border. The compound is\u00a0no more<\/a>:\u00a0 it was turned to rubble so it would not become a (Syrian) shrine for a renegade Iraqi.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The caliph was already on the run, and arrived at this rural back of beyond only 48 hours before the raid, according to Turkish intelligence. A serious question is what he was doing in northwest Syria, in Idlib \u2013 a de facto cauldron-like Donbass in 2014 \u2013 which the Syrian army and Russian airpower are just waiting for the right moment to extinguish.<\/p>\n

There are virtually no ISIS\/Daesh jihadis in Irbil, but lots of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, as in al-Qaeda in Syria, known inside the Beltway as \u201cmoderate rebels,\u201d including hardcore Turkmen brigades previously weaponized by Turkish intel. The only rational explanation is that the Caliph might have identified this Idlib backwater near Barisha, away from the war zone, as the ideal under-the-radar passport to cross to Turkey.<\/p>\n

Russians knew?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The plot thickens when we examine Trump\u2019s long list of \u201cthank yous\u201d for the successful raid. Russia came first, followed by Syria \u2013 presumably Syrian Kurds, not Damascus \u2013 Turkey and Iraq. In fact, Syrian Kurds were only credited with \u201ccertain support,\u201d in Trump\u2019s words. Their commander Mazloum Abdi, though, preferred to extol the raid as a \u201chistoric operation\u201d with essential Syrian Kurd intel input.<\/p>\n

In Trump\u2019s press conference, expanding somewhat on the thank yous, Russia again came first (\u201cgreat\u201d collaboration) and Iraq was \u201cexcellent\u201d: the Iraqi National Intelligence Service later commented on the break it had gotten, via a Syrian who had smuggled the wives of two of Baghdadi\u2019s brothers, Ahmad and Jumah, to Idlib via Turkey.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no way US Special Forces could have pulled this off without complex, combined Turkish, Iraqi and Syrian Kurd intel. Additionally, President Erdogan accomplishes one more tactical masterpiece, juggling between performing the role of dutiful, major NATO ally while still allowing al-Qaeda remnants their safe haven in Idlib under the watchful eye of the Turkish military.<\/p>\n

Significantly, Trump said, about Moscow: \u201cWe told them, \u2018We\u2019re coming in\u2019 \u2026 and they said, \u2018Thank you for telling us.\u2019\u201d But, \u201cthey did not know the mission.\u201d<\/p>\n

They definitely didn\u2019t. In fact, the\u00a0Russian Defense Ministry<\/a>, via spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov, said it had \u201cno reliable information about US servicemen conducting an operation to \u2018yet another\u2019 elimination of the former Daesh leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in the Turkish-controlled part of the Idlib de-escalation zone.\u201d<\/p>\n

And on Trump\u2019s \u201cwe told them,\u201d the Russian Defense Ministry was emphatic: \u201cWe know nothing about any assistance to the flight of US aircraft to the Idlib de-escalation zone\u2019s airspace in the course of this operation.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to ground sources in Syria, a prevalent rumor in Idlib is that the \u201cdead dog\u201d in Barisha\u00a0could\u00a0be Abu Mohammad Salama, the leader of Haras al-Din, a minor sub-group of al-Qaeda in Syria.\u00a0Haras al-Din has not issued any statement about it.<\/p>\n

ISIS\/Daesh anyway has already named a successor: Abdullah Qardash, aka Hajji Abdullah al-Afari, also Iraqi and also a former Saddam Hussein military officer. There\u2019s a strong possibility that ISIS\/Daesh and myriad subgroups and variations of al-Qaeda in Syria will now re-merge, after their split in 2014.<\/p>\n

Who gets the oil?<\/strong><\/p>\n

There\u2019s no plausible explanation whatsoever for Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, for years, enjoying the freedom of shuttling back and forth between Syria and Iraq, always evading the formidable surveillance capabilities of the US government.<\/p>\n

Well, there\u2019s also no plausible explanation for that famous convoy of 53 brand new, white Toyota Hi-Luxes crossing the desert from Syria to Iraq in 2014 crammed with flag-waving ISIS\/Daesh jihadis on their way to capture Mosul, also evading the cornucopia of US satellites covering the Middle East 24\/7.<\/p>\n

And there\u2019s no way to bury the 2012 US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) \u00a0leaked memo<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0that explicitly named \u201cthe West, Gulf monarchies, and Turkey\u201d as seeking a \u201cSalafist principality\u201d in Syria (opposed, significantly, by Russia, China and Iran \u2013 the key poles of Eurasia integration).<\/p>\n

That was way before ISIS\/Daesh\u2019s irresistible ascension. The DIA memo was unmistakable: \u201cIf the situation unravels there is the possibility\u00a0of establishing a declared or undeclared Salafist principality in eastern Syria (Hasaka and Der Zor), and this is exactly what the supporting powers to the opposition want, in order to isolate the Syrian regime,\u00a0which is considered the strategic depth of the Shia expansion (Iraq and Iran).<\/p>\n

True, the fake caliph has been proclaimed definitely dead at least five times, starting in December 2016. Yet the timing, now, could not be more convenient.<\/p>\n

The facts on the ground, after the latest ground-breaking\u00a0Russia-brokered deal<\/a>\u00a0between the Turks and the Syrian Kurds, graphically spell out the slow but sure restoration of Syria\u2019s territorial integrity. There will be no balkanization of Syria. The last remaining pocket to be cleared of jihadis is Irbil.<\/p>\n

And then, there\u2019s the oil question. The \u201cdied as a dog\u201d movie literally buries \u2013 at least for now \u2013 an extremely embarrassing story: the Pentagon deploying tanks to \u201cprotect\u201d Syrian oilfields. This is as illegal, by any possible interpretation of international law, as is, for that matter, the very presence in Syria of US troops, which were never invited by the government in Damascus.<\/p>\n

Persian Gulf traders told me that before 2011, Syria was producing 387,000 barrels of oil a day and selling 140,000 \u2013 the equivalent of 25.1% of Damascus\u2019s income. Nowadays, the Omar, al-Shadaddi and Suwayda fields, in eastern Syria, would not be producing more than 60,000 barrels a day. Still, that\u2019s essential for Damascus and for \u201cthe Syrian people\u201d so admired within the Beltway \u2013 the legitimate owners of the oil.<\/p>\n

The mostly Kurdish People\u2019s Protection Units (YPG) did in fact take military control of Deir er-Zor when they were fighting ISIS\/Daesh. Yet the majority of the local population is Sunni Arab. They will never tolerate any hint of a longtime Syrian Kurd domination \u2013 much less in tandem with a\u00a0US occupation<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Sooner or later the Syrian army will get there, with Russian air power support. The Deep State might, but Trump, in an electoral year, would never risk a hot war over a few, illegally occupied oilfields.<\/p>\n

In the end, the \u201cdied as a dog\u201d movie can be interpreted as a victory lap, and the closure of a historical arc languishing since 2011. When he \u201cabandoned\u201d the Syrian Demoratic Forces Kurds, Trump effectively buried the Rojava question \u2013 as in an independent Syrian Kurdistan.<\/p>\n

Russia is in charge in Syria \u2013 on all fronts. Turkey got rid of its \u201cterrorism\u201d paranoia \u2013 always having to demonize the Syrian Kurd PYD and its armed wing YPG as a spin-off of the Kurdistan Workers\u2019 Party (PKK) separatists inside Turkey \u2013 and this may help to settle the Syrian refugee question. Syria is on the way to recover all its territory.<\/p>\n

The \u201cdied as a dog\u201d movie can also be interpreted as the liquidation of a formerly useful asset that was a valued component of the gift that keeps on giving, the never-ending Global War on Terror. Other scarecrows, and other movies, await.<\/p>\n

_______________________________________________<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/em>Pepe Escobar is a Brazilian independent geopolitical analyst. He is a frequent contributor to websites and radio and TV shows ranging from the US to East Asia. He is the former roving correspondent for <\/em>Asia Times Online<\/em>. He has been a foreign correspondent since 1985, and has lived in London, Paris, Milan, Los Angeles, Washington, Bangkok and Hong Kong. Even before 9\/11 he specialized in covering the arc from the Middle East to Central and East Asia, with an emphasis on Big Power geopolitics and energy wars. He is the author of Globalistan<\/a> (2007), Red Zone Blues<\/a> (2007), Obama does Globalistan<\/a> (2009), Empire of Chaos<\/a> (2014) and 2030<\/a> (2015), all by Nimble Books.<\/em><\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 asiatimes.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

28 Oct 2019 – The \u201cdied as a dog\u201d movie can also be interpreted as the liquidation of a formerly useful asset that was a valued component of the gift that keeps on giving, the never-ending Global War on Terror. Other scarecrows, and other movies, await. Trump\u2019s victory-lap movie version buries the embarrassing story of deploying tanks to \u2018protect\u2019 Syrian oilfields.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":83558,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[48,65,66,204],"tags":[1052,133,120,433,267,1126,260,487,1050,504,950,741,583,651,263,767,291,91,551,86,112,109,287,103,107,1266,880,265,572,639,292,70,126,118,172,921,75],"class_list":["post-146636","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-in-focus","category-anglo-america","category-middle-east-north-africa","category-syria-in-context","tag-abu-ghraib","tag-cia","tag-conflict","tag-europe","tag-geopolitics","tag-hegemony","tag-history","tag-human-rights","tag-imperialism","tag-international-relations","tag-invasion","tag-iraq","tag-isis","tag-justice","tag-matw","tag-middle-east","tag-military","tag-nato","tag-neocolonialism","tag-occupation","tag-pentagon","tag-politics","tag-power","tag-racism","tag-religion","tag-rendition","tag-state-terrorism","tag-terrorism","tag-torture","tag-uk","tag-un","tag-usa","tag-violence","tag-war","tag-west","tag-whistleblowing","tag-world"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146636","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=146636"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146636\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":275112,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146636\/revisions\/275112"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/83558"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=146636"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=146636"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=146636"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}