{"id":149128,"date":"2019-12-09T12:01:12","date_gmt":"2019-12-09T12:01:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=149128"},"modified":"2019-12-16T10:48:38","modified_gmt":"2019-12-16T10:48:38","slug":"beyond-macrons-subversive-nato-comments-frances-growing-unease-with-the-alliance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2019\/12\/beyond-macrons-subversive-nato-comments-frances-growing-unease-with-the-alliance\/","title":{"rendered":"Beyond Macron\u2019s Subversive NATO Comments: France\u2019s Growing Unease with the Alliance"},"content":{"rendered":"

26 Nov 2019 – <\/em>In deciding to give an interview<\/a> to The Economist <\/em>where he declared NATO \u201cbrain dead,\u201d President Emmanuel Macron certainly knew he would spark indignation<\/a> among his fellow European leaders. He chose to do it nevertheless, not out of proverbial French arrogance, but because he deems it both necessary and urgent. A year away from the next U.S. elections (and with Brexit forever dragging on), an unprecedented window of opportunity is about to slam shut for France. This unique alignment of planets, which, in the French vision, should have finally brought the EU onto the path of strategic autonomy and away from dependence on les Anglo-Saxons<\/em>, has not yet produced the expected results. Instead, most European governments, confronted with the inconvenience of their dependence, seem to prefer discreet but concrete steps to appease the United States and to reinforce the U.S.-dominated Alliance. To Paris, this is utterly illogical. But as Tony Blair\u2019s former advisor Robert Cooper, had said<\/a> precisely on the issue of EU autonomy:<\/p>\n

\u201cThe world does not proceed by logic. It proceeds by political choice<\/em>.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The French president has therefore decided to unambiguously display the choice that, in his view, awaits Europe \u2013 even at the risk of appearing \u201cdrastic<\/a>\u201d to the German chancellor.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The Threat France Perceives<\/strong><\/p>\n

Paris is concerned that the Trump administration\u2019s repeated and public misgivings about the U.S. commitment to NATO have the paradoxical effect among most European partners of triggering an increase in Atlanticist loyalty, instead of a drive towards \u201cautonomy.\u201d The alternative was already set out in a remarkable written exchange at the European Center for Foreign Relations<\/a> in 2011, between Nick Witney<\/a> (former British director of the European Defense Agency<\/a>), who stated that there will either be an autonomous EU defense or Europe will have to \u201clive in a world run by others\u201d<\/em>; and Jan Techau<\/a> (German Director of European Affairs at the Carnegie Endowment<\/a>), who saw European autonomy as a \u201cPotemkin village\u201d<\/em> that must be forgotten in favor of \u201csome solid cultivation of the transatlantic link.\u201d<\/em> If EU leaders\u2019 rhetoric in the Trump era sometimes seems to adopt the first vision, their acts, in contrast, point in the second direction. On NATO in particular, Europeans \u2013 eager not to upset President Trump \u2013 have been willing, so far, to allow the organization to follow a path that, for them, means more abandonment and more dependence.<\/p>\n

Indeed, this very same propensity was brought to light in a high-level simulation exercise, the conclusions of which have recently been published. The K\u00f6rber Policy Game<\/a>, jointly organized by a German think-tank<\/a> (The K\u00f6rber Stiftung, where NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made a speech<\/a> the very day Macron\u2019s interview came out in the media) and the prestigious British IISS<\/a> (International Institute for Strategic Studies), brought together senior experts and government officials from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland, and the United States. The five country teams had<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u201cto address a fictional scenario that involves a U.S. withdrawal from NATO followed by multiple crises in Europe.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This produced some edifying results. It turned out, among other things, that instead of<\/p>\n

\u201ctaking proactive steps\u201d<\/em> to protect their own security, \u201cat first, most teams focused on persuading the U.S. to return to NATO, signaling a willingness for concessions that were unthinkable before.\u201d <\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Such an approach leaves very few partners for the \u201cautonomist\u201d option championed by Macron.<\/p>\n

The Urgency Paris Feels<\/strong><\/p>\n

The timing of this controversy is anything but fortuitous. Macron\u2019s interview with The Economist<\/em> took place three days after a press conference<\/a> where he expressed his \u201cindignation\u201d at the way he had learned, by a tweet, the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, followed by the Turkish offensive. According to Macron, the Syria decision<\/p>\n

\u201calso raises questions about the functioning of NATO. Sorry to say it, but let\u2019s not pretend.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In reality, as spectacular as the Syrian episode might be, it is merely the last in a series that combines extraterritorial sanctions, abandonment of arms control treaties, commercial threats, and other unilateral U.S. decisions seen as humiliating to the rest of the allies. Nevertheless, this latest incident comes just one month before the next NATO Leaders Meeting. France worries that in order to accommodate President Trump, Europeans might cede excessively on issues such as labelling China as the new common enemy<\/a>, adding space<\/a> to NATO\u2019s areas of competences or granting the USA access to EU armaments programs<\/a> financed by European taxpayers\u2019 money.<\/p>\n

These would all be in line with American efforts since the end of the Cold War, aimed at \u201cglobalizing\u201d the Alliance so that as many policy areas as possible are dealt with inside NATO, where, as Chancellor Kohl\u2019s advisor Joachim Bitterlich said<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Americans are in a convenient situation because they have the last word and they pull the strings.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

France, on the other hand, continues to advocate for a \u201cre-centering\u201d of NATO, as opposed to letting the Alliance increasingly widen its scope to the point of encroaching on EU policies. Indeed, Paris fears that on a growing number of issues (beyond China, space and armaments, there is also the question of cybersecurity, energy and intelligence), European allies panicked at President Trump\u2019s repeated threats on \u201cmoderating U.S. commitment,\u201d might agree to transfer to NATO their national and\/or EU competences. They would thereby lock themselves even more in dependence and narrow even further their autonomous room for maneuver.<\/p>\n

The Target Macron Chooses<\/strong><\/p>\n

It is no coincidence that Macron\u2019s public qualms about the Alliance focus on Article Five \u2013 the embodiment of collective defense, in other words the notion that an attack against an ally is considered as an attack against all Member States. Traditionally, to avoid jeopardizing this guarantee of U.S. military protection, European allies have been willing to make concessions to Washington, and behave, as Jeremy Shapiro, former policy planner and advisor at the State Department, noted<\/a>, with<\/p>\n

\u201can unhealthy mix of complacency and excessive deference towards the United States.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The paradox under President Trump is that he brings this transactional logic<\/a> openly to the forefront, while casting doubt<\/a>, again<\/a> and again<\/a>, on its very foundation. For France, this is a godsend. European Affairs Minister Nathalie Loiseau observed<\/a> in 2017:<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the U.S. President\u2019s remarks may have caused some confusion with regard to his commitment to the Atlantic Alliance, the interest of an EU strategic autonomy has appeared much more clearly than before to many of our European partners. We have always been convinced of it; others are much more so today than they were yesterday.\u201d <\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Unfortunately for France, however convinced others might have become, they still fail to translate their newly found awareness into deeds.<\/p>\n

President Macron therefore feels the need to insist<\/a> in that<\/p>\n

\u201cthe ultimate guarantor no longer has the same relationship with Europe. Which means that our defense, our security, elements of our sovereignty, must be re-thought through.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And he goes on: NATO<\/p>\n

\u201conly works if the guarantor of last resort functions as such. I\u2019d argue that we should reassess the reality of what NATO is in the light of the commitment of the United States.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

To the question of whether Article Five works or not, his answer was:<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t know, but what will Article Five mean tomorrow?\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

To add insult to injury, Macron took care to emphasize that<\/p>\n

\u201cit hasn\u2019t only been the Trump administration. You have to understand what is happening deep down in American policy-making.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Indeed, Macron\u2019s reasoning is nothing new or earth-shattering. The British Trident Commission<\/a> arrived basically at the same verdict back in 2014. It included, among others, both former Defense and Foreign Secretaries and a former chief of the Defense Staff and examined the rationale behind the planned renewal of the UK nuclear arsenal. They came to the same crucial question:<\/p>\n

\u201ccan we rely upon the United States to possess the capability and the will to provide <\/em>[protection] indefinitely, at least out to the mid-21st century?\u201d<\/em> and concluded that this \u201cis ultimately unanswerable.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The difference with Macron is that the British were mainly anxious not to cause a \u201csignaling problem\u201d<\/em> within NATO over the credibility of U.S. commitment, whereas the French President wants, on the contrary, to issue a wake-up call to his European partners.<\/p>\n

The French Vision Reinvigorated<\/strong><\/p>\n

Despite the annoyed reactions of experts<\/a> and officials<\/a>, the French President\u2019s words are anything but \u201cbizarre.\u201d Quite the contrary, they are perfectly in line with the Gaullist-Mitterrandian tradition that Macron displayed already fully in his last annual speech<\/a> to the French ambassadors. The cornerstone of this vision has always been the concept of sovereignty \u2013 a term Macron used twenty times in his interview to The Economist<\/em>. This return to the foundations calls for three remarks. First: the imperative of autonomy has never been directed against America. In French thinking, either one preserves sovereignty in relation to any third country, or one does not. If the Europeans decide to give it up once, notably vis-\u00e0-vis the United States, the submission patterns it implies (the loss of their own material capacities<\/a> as well as the relinquishment of responsibility) will put them at the mercy of any other power in the future. A Europe that fails to assume its full autonomy becomes an easy prey for anybody. As Macron explains:<\/p>\n

\u201cIf it can\u2019t think of itself as a global power, Europe will disappear.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Secondly, in the French vision, sovereignty, in addition to being a strategic necessity, is also a sine qua non condition for democracy. Without independence from external pressures and from undue influences, the citizens\u2019 vote carries little weight. Macron has emphatically underscored<\/a> this linkage:<\/p>\n

\u201cIf we agree to other major powers \u2013 including allies, including friends \u2013 putting themselves in a position to decide for us, for our diplomacy, our security, then we are no longer sovereign and we can no longer credibly look at our public opinion, our people and say to them:\u00a0 we are going to decide for you, come and vote, and come and choose.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

He followed on the same idea when speaking<\/a> to the annual gathering of French ambassadors:<\/p>\n

\u201cit is a democratic dead-end to see the people sovereignly choose leaders who no longer would have control over anything. Therefore, the responsibility of today\u2019s leaders is to create the conditions for ourselves to have control over our own destiny.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Finally, as well as the obvious return to the very essence of Gaullism, Macron\u2019s interview with The Economist<\/em> also signals a resolve to reconnect with a certain attitude, a specifically French way of doing diplomacy. Indeed, since its thundering rejection of the Iraq war in 2003, France has often behaved as if frightened by its own boldness: it had somewhat abandoned its posture of \u201cgo it alone,\u201d or \u201cDon Quixote,\u201d in favor of the search for compromise and so-called pragmatism\u00a0 \u2013 to little avail. The force of French diplomacy has always been its ability to assume a clear position, assert obvious principles, and translate them into practical terms with an implacable logic \u2013 to the point where interlocutors often find themselves unmasked, faced with their own inconsistencies. That is exactly what Macron is trying to do now. In the face of a number of blatant blows from the Trump administration, European leaders, the German chancellor among others, already deplored<\/a> publicly their dependent situation. The French president therefore calls them to simply<\/p>\n

\u201cdraw the conclusions.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

_________________________________________________<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/em>Hajnalka Vincze, a Senior Fellow in the Center for the Study of America and the West at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, contributes to FPRI on French, EU, and transatlantic politics and policies. Vincze is a European foreign and security policy analyst, formerly in charge of European Union and transatlantic issues at the Hungarian Ministry of Defense\u2019s Research Institute.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 fpri.org<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

26 Nov 2019 – Most European governments prefer discreet but concrete steps to appease the United States and to reinforce the U.S.-dominated Alliance. To Paris, this is utterly illogical. But as Robert Cooper had said precisely on the issue of EU autonomy: \u201cThe world does not proceed by logic. It proceeds by political choice.\u201d In the French vision, the path of strategic autonomy and away from dependence on les Anglo-Saxons has not yet produced the expected results.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":149129,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65,57,51],"tags":[1326,1268,1675,267,260,91,249,70,172],"class_list":["post-149128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-anglo-america","category-militarism","category-europe","tag-emmanuel-macron","tag-european-union","tag-france","tag-geopolitics","tag-history","tag-nato","tag-trump","tag-usa","tag-west"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/149128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=149128"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/149128\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/149129"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=149128"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=149128"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=149128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}