The most difficult challenge in writing about the Iranian Terror Plot unveiled yesterday [11 Oct 2011] is to take it seriously enough to analyze it. Iranian Muslims in the Quds Force sending marauding bands of Mexican drug cartel assassins onto sacred American soil to commit Terrorism \u2014 against Saudi Arabia and possibly Israel \u2014 is what Bill Kristol and John Bolton would feverishly dream up while dropping acid and madly cackling at the possibility that they could get someone to believe it. But since the U.S. Government rolled out its Most Serious Officials with Very Serious Faces to make these accusations, many people (therefore) do believe it; after all, U.S. government accusations = Truth. All Serious people know that. And in the ensuing reaction one finds virtually every dynamic typically shaping discussions of Terrorism and U.S. foreign policy.<\/p>\n
To begin with, this episode continues the FBI\u2019s record-setting\u00a0undefeated streak<\/a> of heroically saving us from the plots they enable. From all appearances, this is, at best, yet another spectacular \u201cplot\u201d hatched by some hapless loser with delusions of grandeur but without any means to put it into action except with the able assistance of the FBI, which yet again provided it through its own (paid, criminal) sources posing as Terrorist enablers. The Terrorist Mastermind at the center of the plot is a failed used car salesman<\/a> in Texas with a history of pedestrian money problems. Dive under your bed. \u201cFor the entire operation, the government\u2019s confidential sources were monitored and guided by federal law enforcement agents,\u201d explained U.S. Attorney\u00a0Preet Bharara, and \u201cno explosives were actually ever placed anywhere and no one was actually ever in any danger<\/strong>.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n But no matter. The U.S. Government and its mindless followers in the pundit and think-tank \u201cexpert\u201d class have seized on this ludicrous plot with astonishing speed to all but turn it into a hysterical declaration of war against Evil, Hitlerian Iran. \u201cThe US attorney-general<\/a> Eric Holder said Iran would be \u2018held to account\u2019 over what he described as a flagrant abuse of international law,\u201d and \u201cthe US says military action remains on the table,\u201d though \u201cit is at present seeking instead to work through diplomatic and financial means to further isolate Iran.\u201d\u00a0Hillary Clinton thundered that this \u201ccrosses a line that Iran needs to be held to account for.\u201d The CIA\u2019s spokesman at The Washington Post<\/em>, David Ignatius, quoted<\/a> an anonymous White House official as saying the plot \u201cappeared to have been authorized by senior levels of the Quds Force.\u201d\u00a0Meanwhile, the State Department has issued a Travel Alert<\/a>\u00a0which warns American citizens that this plot \u201cmay indicate a more aggressive focus by the Iranian Government on terrorist activity against diplomats from certain countries, to include possible attacks in the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n In case that\u2019s not enough to frighten you \u2014 and, really, how could it not be? \u2014 some Very Serious Experts are very, very afraid and want you to know how Serious this all is. Within moments of Holder\u2019s news conference, National Security Expert Robert Chesney \u00a0\u2013 without a molecule of critical thought in his brain \u2014 announced<\/a> that this \u201cremarkable development\u201d was \u201cvery scary.\u201d <\/strong>Very, very scary. Chesney then printed large blocks of the DOJ\u2019s Press Release to prove it. Self-proclaimed \u201ccounter-terrorism expert\u201d Daveed Gartenstein-Ross tapped into his vast expertise to explain<\/a>:\u00a0\u201dHolder weighing in on the plot\u2019s connection to Iran means the administration is deadly serious<\/strong> about it.\u201d Progressive think-tank expert and Atlantic<\/em>\u00a0writer Steve Clemons decreed<\/a>\u00a0that if the DOJ\u2019s accusations are true, then\u00a0\u201dthe US has reached a point where it must take action<\/strong>\u201d and \u201cthis is time for a significant strategic response<\/strong> to the Iran challenge in the Middle East and globally,\u201d which<\/a> \u201ccould involve military.\u201d<\/p>\n The ironies here are so self-evident it\u2019s hard to work up the energy to point them out. Outside of Pentagon reporters, Washington Post<\/em>\u00a0Editorial Page Editors, and Brookings \u201cscholars,\u201d is there a person on the planet anywhere who can listen with a straight face as drone-addicted U.S. Government officials righteously condemn the evil, illegal<\/strong> act of entering another country to commit an assassination? Does anyone, for instance, have any interest in finding out who is responsible for the spate of serial murders aimed at Iran\u2019s nuclear scientists<\/a>? Wouldn\u2019t people professing to be so outraged by the idea of entering another country to engage in assassination be eager to get to the bottom of that?<\/p>\n Then there\u2019s the War on Terror irony: our Hated Enemy here (Iran) is a country which had absolutely nothing \u00a0to do with the 9\/11 attack. Meanwhile, our close ally, the victim on whose behalf we are so outraged (Saudi Arabia), is not only one of the most tyrannical and aggressive<\/a>\u00a0regimes on the planet<\/a>, but produced 15 of the 19 hijackers and had extensive<\/a> and still-unknown<\/a> involvement in that attack. If the U.S. is so deeply offended by the involvement of a foreign government in an attack on U.S. soil, it would be looking first to its close friend Saudi Arabia, where \u201celements of the government\u201d were likely involved in an actual plot rather than a joke of a plot.<\/p>\n To make sure you understand just how dastardly and evil the Iranian plotters here are, the DOJ in its complaint<\/a> highlighted that the used-car-salesman-Terrorist-Mastermind said that he preferred that nobody else be killed when the Saudi Ambassador was assassinated, but if it were absolutely necessary, he could accept some unintended deaths! Here\u2019s how the NYT <\/em>summarizes that:<\/p>\n The complaint quotes Mr. Arbabsiar as making conflicting statements about the possibility of bystander deaths; at one point he is said to say that killing the ambassador alone would be preferable, but on another occasion he said it would be \u201cno big deal\u201d if many others at the restaurant \u2014 possibly including United States senators \u2014 died in any bombing.<\/p>\n What kind of monster thinks that way, we are supposed to ponder. Behold the warped mind of the Terrorist! He\u2019s actually willing to accept that others die besides his intended targeted! Is that not the mentality that drives U.S. behavior in multiple countries around the world every day? The U.S. flattened an entire civilian apartment building in Baghdad<\/a>\u00a0with a 2,000-pound bomb\u00a0when it thought Saddam Hussein was there (he wasn\u2019t \u2014 oops \u2014 but lots of innocent people were). NATO repeatedly bombed structures<\/a>\u00a0in Tripoli where it thought (mistakenly) Moammar Gadaffi was located, in the process almost certainly killing large numbers of unintended targets. The U.S. just killed one of its own citizens that it insists (not very credibly<\/a>) it did not intend to kill in order to eradicate the life of Anwar Awlaki, and killed dozens of innocent people<\/a> when it previously tried to kill Awlaki with cluster bombs.<\/p>\n The U.S. is the living, breathing symbol of this \u201ccollateral damage\u201d rationale. It\u2019s what drives all the multi-nation American wars and occupations and drone campaigns and assassinations that continuously pile up the corpses of innocent people<\/a>. But we\u2019re all going to gather in righteous disgust at the idea that this monstrous International Terrorist would be willing to incur some unintended civilian deaths in order to assassinate an official of the peaceful, freedom-loving Saudi regime. Really, for brazen irony, how can this be beat<\/a>?<\/p>\n Tom Kean, former chairman of the 9\/11 Commission said the alleged plot \u201csurprises me.\u201d Speaking to CNN\u2019s Erin Burnett, Kean said the plot is \u201cpretty close to an act of war. You don\u2019t go in somebody\u2019s capital to blow somebody up.<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n Meanwhile, President Obama decried this plot as \u201ca flagrant violation of US and international law.\u201d But maybe some Persian Marty Lederman<\/a> in Tehran wrote a secret legal memo concluding that this was all in accordance with domestic and international law, which \u2014 as we know \u2014 is conclusive and provides a full shield of immunity.<\/p>\n So facially absurd are the claims here \u2014 why would Iran possibly wake up one day and decide that it wanted to engage in a Terrorist attack on U.S. soil when it could much more easily kill Saudi officials elsewhere? and if Iran and its Quds Force are really behind this inept, hapless, laughable plot, then nothing negates the claim that Iran is some Grave Threat like this does \u2014 that there is more skepticism expressed even in establishment media accounts than one normally finds about such things. Even the NYT<\/em> noted \u2014 with great understatement \u2014 that the allegations \u201cprovoked puzzlement from specialists on Iran, who said it seemed unlikely that the government would back a brazen murder and bombing plan on American soil<\/strong>.\u201d The Post <\/em>noted<\/a>\u00a0that \u201cthe very rashness of the alleged assassination plot raised doubts about whether Iran\u2019s normally cautious ruling clerics supported or even know about it.\u201d The Atlantic<\/em>\u2018s Max Fisher has more<\/a> on why this would be so out of character for Iran.<\/p>\n But while some attention has been devoted to asking what motive Iran would have for doing this, little attention has been paid to asking what motive the U.S. would have for exaggerating or concocting the connection of Iran\u2019s government to this plot. Aside from the benefits the FBI and DOJ receive when breaking up a \u201cvery scary\u201d plot \u2014 the bigger, the better \u2014 it has been one of Obama\u2019s highest foreign policy priorities to isolate Iran and sanction it further: as a means of placating Israel and punishing Iran for thwarting America\u2019s natural right to rule that region<\/a>\u00a0(so monstrous is Iran that, as the U.S. has repeatedly complained, they actually continue to \u201cinterfere\u201d in Iraq<\/a>\u00a0as well as in Afghanistan<\/a>!). As Ignatius explains, the U.S. Government instantly converted this plot into a vehicle for furthering those policy ambitions:<\/p>\n With its alleged plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Iran has handed the United States an opportunity to undermine Tehran at a moment when U.S. officials believe the Iranian regime is especially vulnerable. . . .\u00a0\u201cWe see this as a chance to go out to capitals around the world and talk to allies and partners about what the Iranians tried to do,<\/strong>\u201d the [White House] official said. \u201cWe\u2019re not going to tolerate targeting a diplomat in Washington. We\u2019re going to try to use this to isolate them to the maximum extent possible<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Joe Biden announced today<\/a> that the U.S. is \u201cworking to unite the world\u201d behind a response to Iran\u2019s \u201coutrageous\u201d actions and that<\/a>\u00a0\u201dnothing has been taken off the table.\u201d\u00a0So Iran\u2019s supposed involvement in this plot is the ideal weapon for the U.S. to advance its long-standing goals with regard to that country. Maybe that warrants some serious skepticism about whether the U.S. Government\u2019s claims are true? But we all know that only Bad Muslim countries exploit foreign policy exaggerations or fabrications for political gain, and not the United States of America (especially not with Barack Obama<\/a>, rather than a Republican, in the White House).<\/p>\n What\u2019s most significant is that not even 24 hours have elapsed since these allegations were unveiled. No evidence has been presented of Iran\u2019s involvement. And yet there is no shortage of people \u2014 especially in the media \u2014 breathlessly talking about all of this as though it\u2019s all clearly true. If the Obama administration decided tomorrow that military action against Iran were warranted in response, is there any doubt that large majorities of Americans \u2014 and large majorities of Democrats \u2014 would support that?<\/strong> As I said when discussing the Awlaki killing, the truly \u201cscary\u201d aspect of all of this is that the U.S. Government need only point and utter the word \u201cTerrorist\u201d and hordes of citizens will rise up and demand not evidence, but blood.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n UPDATE<\/strong>:\u00a0Perpetual war-cheerleader Ken Pollack of Brookings says that<\/a>, if true, this plot \u201cshows that Tehran is meaner and nastier than ever before\u201d and \u201cwould represent a major escalation of Iranian terrorist operations against the United States.\u201d Also, he announces, this \u201cshould remind us that Iran also is not a normal country by any stretch of the imagination.\u201d That \u2014 self-anointed arbiter of who is and is not a \u201cnormal country\u201d \u2014 from a person as responsible<\/a> as any pundit or think-tank expert for the attack on Iraq that killed at least 100,000 human beings, denouncing as Terrorists and abnormal a country that has invaded nobody.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n UPDATE II<\/strong>: On NPR this morning<\/a>, Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations \u2014 and Ken Pollack\u2019s co-author on Iran<\/a> \u2014 said this when asked if he has any doubts about the accuracy of U.S. government statements: \u201cThe only unusual aspect of this is actually having a terrorist operation on American territory. I don\u2019t know what the evidence about this is, but I\u2019m not in a position to doubt it<\/strong>.\u201d That perfectly summarizes the political, media and \u201cexpert\u201d class\u2019 attitude toward U.S. Government claims: they\u2019re keeping everything secret about their accusations, so there\u2019s no reason to doubt what they\u2019re claiming. <\/em>The National Security Priesthood that uncritically amplified every U.S. Government claim and fanned the flames of war against Iraq is alive, well, and more mindless and dutiful than ever.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n UPDATE III<\/strong>: The Christian Science Monitor <\/em>details<\/a>\u00a0the many reasons why \u201cIran specialists who have followed the Islamic Republic for years say that many details in the alleged plot just don\u2019t add up.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n UPDATE IV<\/strong>: On Good Morning America<\/em><\/a> this morning, Joe Biden warned that \u201cthe Iranians are going to have to be held accountable\u201d and \u201cnothing has been taken off the table,\u201d and then promised: \u201cAnd when you see the case presented you will find there is compelling evidence for the assertion being made<\/strong>.\u201d Except \u2014 after 24 hours of media hysteria \u2014 there\u2019s this\u00a0Reuters<\/em>\u00a0article<\/a>, which \u2014 under\u00a0the headline \u201cOfficials concede gaps in U.S. knowledge of Iran plot\u201d \u2014 reports:<\/p>\n Iran\u2019s supreme leader and the shadowy Quds Force covert operations unit were likely<\/strong> aware of an alleged plot to kill Saudi Arabia\u2019s ambassador to the United States, but hard evidence of that is scant<\/strong>, U.S. officials said on Wednesday.<\/p>\n The United States does not have solid information<\/strong> about \u201cexactly how high it goes,\u201d one official said. . . .The U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said their confidence that at least some Iranian leaders were aware of the alleged plot was based largely on analyses and their understanding of how the Quds Force operates.<\/strong><\/p>\n I wouldn\u2019t exactly call that \u2014 what was the phrase Biden used? \u2014 \u201ccompelling evidence for the assertions being made.\u201d In fact, it reminds me of the language anonymous government officials began using<\/a> to describe their \u201cknowledge\u201d of Anwar Awlaki\u2019s alleged operational role in plots against the U.S. once they killed him: \u201cpatchy\u201d; \u201cpartial\u201d; \u201csuspicion.\u201d But what we learned with Awlaki is likely what we\u2019ll see here: many people reflexively believe government accusations even when unaccompanied by evidence, and that belief is not diluted even when government officials began acknowledging (albeit anonymously) that they do not possess and never did possess any conclusive evidence to support their accusations.<\/p>\n