{"id":157158,"date":"2020-03-30T12:00:39","date_gmt":"2020-03-30T11:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=157158"},"modified":"2020-12-02T10:19:54","modified_gmt":"2020-12-02T10:19:54","slug":"coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2020\/03\/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance\/","title":{"rendered":"Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time<\/strong><\/p>\n

19 Mar 2020 – This article follows <\/em>Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now<\/em><\/a>, with over 40 million views and 30 translations. If you agree with this article, consider <\/em>signing the corresponding White House petition<\/em><\/a>. Over 30 translations available at the bottom. Running <\/em>list of endorsements here<\/em><\/a>. Over 10 million views so far.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn\u2019t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don\u2019t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Within a week, countries around the world have gone from: \u201cThis coronavirus thing is not a big deal<\/em>\u201d to declaring the state of emergency. Yet many countries are still not doing much. Why?<\/p>\n

Every country is asking the same question: How should we respond? The answer is not obvious to them.<\/p>\n

Some countries, like France, Spain or Philippines, have since ordered heavy lockdowns. Others, like the US, UK, or Switzerland, have dragged their feet, hesitantly venturing into social distancing measures.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what we\u2019re going to cover today, again with lots of charts, data and models with plenty of sources:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. What\u2019s the current situation?<\/li>\n
  2. What options do we have?<\/li>\n
  3. What\u2019s the one thing that matters now: Time<\/li>\n
  4. What does a good coronavirus strategy look like?<\/li>\n
  5. How should we think about the economic and social impacts?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    When you\u2019re done reading the article, this is what you\u2019ll take away:<\/em><\/p>\n

    Our healthcare system is already collapsing.
    \nCountries have two options: either they fight it hard now, or they will suffer a massive epidemic.
    \nIf they choose the epidemic, hundreds of thousands will die. In some countries, millions.
    \nAnd that might not even eliminate further waves of infections.
    \nIf we fight hard now, we will curb the deaths.
    \nWe will relieve our healthcare system.
    \nWe will prepare better.
    \nWe will learn.
    \nThe world has never learned as fast about anything, ever.
    \nAnd we need it, because we know so little about this virus.
    \nAll of this will achieve something critical: Buy Us Time.<\/p>\n

    If we choose to fight hard, the fight will be sudden, then gradual.
    \nWe will be locked in for weeks, not months.
    \nThen, we will get more and more freedoms back.
    \nIt might not be back to normal immediately.
    \nBut it will be close, and eventually back to normal.
    \nAnd we can do all that while considering the rest of the economy too.<\/p>\n

    OK, let\u2019s do this.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. What\u2019s the situation?<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Last week, I showed this curve:<\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

      It showed coronavirus cases across the world outside of China. We could only discern Italy, Iran and South Korea. So I had to zoom in on the bottom right corner to see the emerging countries. My entire point is that they would soon be joining these 3 cases.<\/p>\n

      Let\u2019s see what has happened since.<\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

      As predicted, the number of cases has exploded in dozens of countries. Here, I was forced to show only countries with over 1,000 cases. A few things to note:<\/p>\n

      TO CONTINUE READING Go to Original \u2013 medium.com<\/a><\/p>\n

      ______________________________________________________<\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/a><\/em>Tomas Pueyo<\/strong><\/a> – 2 MSc in Engineering. Stanford MBA. Ex-Consultant. Creator of viral applications with >20M users. Currently leading a billion-dollar business @ Course Hero.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      19 Mar 2020 – Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn\u2019t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don\u2019t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":157159,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2236],"tags":[271,1879,1829,289,744,1698,710,1864,1102,304,1447,1880,339,124,1836,75],"class_list":["post-157158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-covid19-coronavirus","tag-community","tag-compassion","tag-coronavirus","tag-economy","tag-empathy","tag-epidemics","tag-health","tag-pandemic","tag-public-health","tag-science","tag-science-and-medicine","tag-sharing","tag-trade","tag-united-nations","tag-who","tag-world"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157158","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=157158"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157158\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/157159"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=157158"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=157158"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=157158"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}