{"id":159495,"date":"2020-05-04T12:00:30","date_gmt":"2020-05-04T11:00:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=159495"},"modified":"2020-04-29T06:01:44","modified_gmt":"2020-04-29T05:01:44","slug":"the-world-is-on-lockdown-so-where-are-all-the-carbon-emissions-coming-from","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2020\/05\/the-world-is-on-lockdown-so-where-are-all-the-carbon-emissions-coming-from\/","title":{"rendered":"The World Is on Lockdown. So Where Are All the Carbon Emissions Coming from?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Standard<\/p><\/div>\n

27 Apr 2020 – <\/em>Pedestrians have taken over city streets<\/a>, people have almost entirely stopped flying<\/a>, skies are blue<\/a> (even in Los Angeles<\/a>!) for the first time in decades, and global CO2 emissions are on-track to drop by \u2026 about 5.5 percent<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Wait, what? Even with the global economy at a near-standstill, the best analysis suggests that the world is still on track to release 95 percent of the carbon dioxide emitted in a typical year, continuing to heat up the planet and driving climate change even as we\u2019re stuck at home.<\/p>\n

A 5.5-percent drop in carbon dioxide emissions would still be the largest yearly change on record<\/em>, beating out the financial crisis of 2008 and World War II. But it\u2019s worth wondering: Where do all of those emissions come from? And if stopping most travel and transport isn\u2019t enough to slow down climate change, what will be?<\/p>\n

\u201cI think the main issue is that people focus way, way too much on people\u2019s personal footprints, and whether they fly or not, without really dealing with the structural things that really cause carbon dioxide levels to go up,\u201d said Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist and the director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City.<\/p>\n

Transportation makes up a little over 20 percent<\/a> of global carbon dioxide emissions, according to the International Energy Agency. (In the United States, it makes up around 28 percent<\/a>.) That\u2019s a significant chunk, but it also means that even if all travel were completely carbon-free (imagine a renewable-powered, electrified train system, combined with personal EVs and battery-powered airplanes), there\u2019d still be another 80 percent of fossil fuel emissions billowing into the skies.<\/p>\n

So where are all those emissions coming from? For one thing, utilities are still generating roughly the same amount of electricity \u2014 even if more of it\u2019s going to houses instead of workplaces. Electricity and heating combined account for over 40 percent of global emissions. Many people around the world rely on wood, coal, and natural gas to keep their homes warm and cook their food \u2014 and in most places, electricity isn\u2019t so green either.<\/p>\n

Even with a bigger proportion of the world working from home, people still need the grid to keep the lights on and connect to the internet. \u201cThere\u2019s a shift from offices to homes, but the power hasn\u2019t been turned off, and that power is still being generated largely by fossil fuels,\u201d Schmidt said. In the United States, 60 percent of electricity generation still comes from coal, oil, and natural gas. (There is evidence, however, that the lockdown is shifting when<\/em> people use electricity<\/a>, which has some consequences for renewables.)<\/p>\n

Manufacturing, construction, and other types of industry account for approximately 20 percent of CO2 emissions. Certain industrial processes like steel production and aluminum smelting use huge amounts of fossil fuels \u2014 and so far, Schmidt says, that type of production has mostly continued despite the pandemic.<\/p>\n

The reality is that emissions need to be cut by 7.6 percent every year<\/em><\/a> to keep global warming from surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels \u2014 the threshold associated with the most dangerous climate threats<\/a> \u2014 according to an analysis by the United Nations Environment Program. Even if the global lockdown and economic slump reduce emissions by 7.6 percent this year, emissions would have to fall even more the year after that. And the year after that. And so on.<\/p>\n

In the middle of the pandemic, it\u2019s become common to point to clear skies<\/a> in Los Angeles and the cleaner waters<\/a> of Venice as evidence that people can make a difference on climate change. \u201cThe newly iconic photos of a crystal-clear Los Angeles skyline without its usual shroud of smog are unwanted but compelling evidence of what can happen when individuals stop driving vehicles that pollute the air,\u201d wrote Michael Grunwald in POLITICO magazine<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But these arguments conflate air and water pollution \u2014 crucial environmental issues in their own right! \u2014 with CO2 emissions. Carbon dioxide is invisible, and power plants and oil refineries are still pumping it into the atmosphere. Meanwhile, natural gas companies and livestock farming (think cow burps<\/a>) keep releasing methane.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think people should bike instead of driving, and they should take the train instead of flying,\u201d said Schmidt. \u201cBut those are small, compared to the really big structural things that haven\u2019t changed.\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s worth remembering that a dip in carbon emissions won\u2019t lead to any changes in the Earth\u2019s warming trend. Some scientists compare carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to water flowing into a leaky bathtub<\/a>. The lockdown has turned the tap down, not off. Until we cut emissions to net-zero \u2014 so that emissions flowing into the atmosphere are equivalent to those flowing out \u2014 the Earth will continue warming.<\/p>\n

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To first order, think of CO\u2082 concentrations in the atmosphere as the water in a bathtub & CO\u2082 emissions as the tap. The lockdowns mean the tap has been turned down slightly, so CO\u2082 is still streaming into the bathtub (& some leaks out the bottom)https:\/\/t.co\/2MNQn6JRCI<\/a><\/p>\n

— Glen Peters (@Peters_Glen) March 30, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n