{"id":161313,"date":"2020-05-25T12:00:26","date_gmt":"2020-05-25T11:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=161313"},"modified":"2020-12-02T10:10:21","modified_gmt":"2020-12-02T10:10:21","slug":"studies-on-covid-19-lethality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2020\/05\/studies-on-covid-19-lethality\/","title":{"rendered":"Studies on COVID-19 Lethality"},"content":{"rendered":"

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20 May 2020 – <\/em>Facts on Covid-19<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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1) Covid-19 infection fatality rates (IFR) based on antibody studies<\/h4>\n

Population-based antibody seroprevalence studies.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Country<\/strong><\/td>\nPublished<\/strong><\/td>\nPopulation<\/strong><\/td>\nIFR (%)<\/strong><\/td>\nSource<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Germany<\/td>\nMay 4<\/td>\nHeinsberg Cluster<\/td>\n<0.36\u00b9<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Iran<\/td>\nMay 1<\/td>\nGuilan province<\/td>\n<0.12<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USA<\/td>\nApril 30<\/td>\nSanta Clara County<\/td>\n0.17<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Denmark<\/td>\nApril 28<\/td>\nBlood donors (<70y)<\/td>\n0.08<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USA<\/td>\nApril 24<\/td>\nMiami-Dade County<\/td>\n0.18\u00b2<\/td>\nReport<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USA<\/td>\nApril 21<\/td>\nLos Angeles County<\/td>\n<0.20<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

1) The adjusted IFR is 0.278% (see page 9 of study); 2) Based on 300 deaths.<\/p>\n

2) Covid-19 infection fatality rates based on controlled PCR studies<\/h4>\n

Controlled PCR studies in population subgroups.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Country<\/strong><\/td>\nDate<\/strong><\/td>\nPopulation<\/strong><\/td>\nIFR (%)<\/strong><\/td>\nSource<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USA<\/td>\nMay 10<\/td>\nMLB employees<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\nReport<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
France<\/td>\nMay 10<\/td>\nAircraft carrier<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\nReport<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USA<\/td>\nMay 10<\/td>\nAircraft carrier<\/td>\n0.09<\/td>\nReport<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USA<\/td>\nMay 1<\/td>\nTennessee prison<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\nReport<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Italy\u00b9<\/td>\nApril 28<\/td>\nHealth workers<\/td>\n0.30<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USA<\/td>\nApril 17<\/td>\nBoston homeless<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\nReport<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USA<\/td>\nApril 17<\/td>\nBoston blood donors<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\nReport<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Greece<\/td>\nApril 16<\/td>\nRepatriations<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USA<\/td>\nApril 13<\/td>\nNYC pregnant women<\/td>\n0.00<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n
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1) Deaths in Italian health care workers by age group (ISS<\/a>, April 28, 2020)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

3) Covid-19 infection fatality rates based on models<\/h4>\n

Covid-19 IFR based on epidemiological models or predictions. These values are often higher than the actual values based on serological antibody studies (see above).<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Country<\/strong><\/td>\nPublished<\/strong><\/td>\nPopulation<\/strong><\/td>\nIFR (%)<\/strong><\/td>\nSource<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
France<\/td>\nMay 13<\/td>\nFrance<\/td>\n0.70<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Switzerland<\/td>\nMay 11<\/td>\nSwitzerland<\/td>\n0.40<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
UK<\/td>\nMay 7<\/td>\nUK<\/td>\n0.08\u00b9<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
France<\/td>\nMay 7<\/td>\nFrance<\/td>\n0.80\u00b2<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Global<\/td>\nMay 5<\/td>\nGlobal<\/td>\n0.17<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
India<\/td>\nMay 3<\/td>\nIndia<\/td>\n0.41<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Italy
\nUSA<\/td>\n		April 20<\/td>\nLombardia
\nNew York City<\/td>\n		>0.84
\n>0.50<\/td>\n		Study<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
China<\/td>\nMarch 30<\/td>\nMainland China<\/td>\n0.66<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ship<\/td>\nApril 17<\/td>\nDiamond Princess<\/td>\n0.13\u00b3<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
China<\/td>\nMarch 13<\/td>\nWuhan city<\/td>\n0.12<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
China<\/td>\nMarch 9<\/td>\nMainland China<\/td>\n0.50<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

1) Based on 29% prevalence and 50,000 deaths; 2) The IFR is 0.50 excluding nursing homes; 3) Age-adjusted IFR based on US population.<\/p>\n

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French model: IFR (x100) per age group (Study<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

4) Additional antibody and PCR studies<\/h4>\n

These studies typically determine the actual prevalence of recent or current Covid-19 infections in a population. In most cases, they find that Covid-19 is much more widespread than previously assumed, with most people showing no or only mild symptoms.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Country<\/strong><\/td>\nPublished<\/strong><\/td>\nPopulation<\/strong><\/td>\nPrev.<\/strong><\/td>\nFactor<\/strong><\/td>\nSource<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USA<\/td>\nMay 15<\/td>\nBoston<\/td>\n12.5%<\/td>\n8x<\/td>\nReport<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Czech Rep.<\/td>\nMay 15<\/td>\nSouth Bohemia<\/td>\n5%<\/td>\n10x<\/td>\nReport<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Spain<\/td>\nMay 13<\/td>\nSpain
\nMadrid<\/td>\n		5%
\n11.3%<\/td>\n		10x<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
UK<\/td>\nMay 8<\/td>\nUK<\/td>\n29%<\/td>\n200x<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Switzerland<\/td>\nMay 6<\/td>\nGeneva<\/td>\n9.7%<\/td>\n10x<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Global<\/td>\nMay 5<\/td>\n< 65 years old<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Japan<\/td>\nMay 5<\/td>\nKobe City<\/td>\n2.7%<\/td>\n396x<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USA<\/td>\nMay 2<\/td>\nNew York State
\nNew York City<\/td>\n		12.3%
\n19.9%<\/td>\n		<\/td>\nReport<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Spain<\/td>\nMay 2<\/td>\nHealth workers<\/td>\n11.2%<\/td>\n<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Netherlands<\/td>\nApril 29<\/td>\nBlood donors<\/td>\n2.7%<\/td>\n<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
France<\/td>\nApril 23<\/td>\nNorthern France<\/td>\n3%<\/td>\n<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USA<\/td>\nApril 19<\/td>\nChelsea MA<\/td>\n32%<\/td>\n16x<\/td>\nReport<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Iceland<\/td>\nApril 14<\/td>\nIceland (PCR)<\/td>\n0.8%<\/td>\n<\/td>\nStudy<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

5) Median age of Covid-19 deaths per country<\/h4>\n

Half of all deaths were below, half were above the median age.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Country<\/strong><\/td>\nMedian age
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		Source<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Austria<\/td>\n80+ years<\/td>\nEMS<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
England<\/td>\n80+ years<\/td>\nNHS<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
France<\/td>\n84 years<\/td>\nSPF<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Germany<\/td>\n82 years<\/td>\nRKI<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Italy<\/td>\n81 years<\/td>\nISS<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Spain<\/td>\n~82 years<\/td>\nMDS<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sweden<\/td>\n86 years<\/td>\nFOHM<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Switzerland<\/td>\n84 years<\/td>\nBAG<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USA<\/td>\n~80 years<\/td>\nCDC<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n
\"\"<\/a>
Example: Death rate by age group in Massachusetts (Source<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

7) Hospitalization rate<\/h4>\n

Initial estimates based on Chinese data assumed<\/a> a very high 20% hospitalization rate, which led to the strategy of \u2018flattening the curve\u2019 to avoid overburdening hospitals. However, population-based antibody studies (see above) have since shown that actual hospitalization rates are close to 1%, which is within the range of hospitalization rates for influenza<\/a> (1 to 2%).<\/p>\n

The US CDC found that<\/a> Covid-19 hospitalization rates for people aged 65 and over are \u201cwithin ranges of influenza hospitalization rates\u201d, with rates slightly higher for people aged 18 to 64 and \u201cmuch lower\u201d (compared to influenza) for people under 18.<\/p>\n

In local hotspots like New York City, the overall hospitalization rate based on antibody studies is about 2.5% (19.9% or 1.7 million people with antibodies<\/a> and 43,000 hospitalizations<\/a> by May 2), which is somewhat above a severe wave of influenza.<\/p>\n

The much lower than expected hospitalization rate may explain why most Covid-19 \u2018field hospitals\u2019 even in hard-hit countries like the US, the UK<\/a> and China remained largely empty<\/a>.<\/p>\n

8) Percentage of Covid-19 deaths in care homes per country<\/h4>\n

In many countries, deaths in care homes account for 30 to 60% of all additional deaths.<\/p>\n

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Source<\/strong>: Mortality associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes<\/a> (LTC Covid, May 3, 2020)<\/p>\n

9) Development of the epidemic<\/h4>\n

Even in countries without<\/em> a lockdown, the epidemic reached its peak within a few weeks of the outbreak. However, many media showed cumulative<\/em> deaths per day of report<\/em> (left) instead of daily<\/em> deaths per day of death <\/em>(right), falsely implying an ever escalating situation.<\/p>\n

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Cumulative deaths per day of report vs. daily deaths per day of death. (OWD\/FOHM; April 24)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

See also<\/h4>\n