{"id":161495,"date":"2020-05-25T12:00:42","date_gmt":"2020-05-25T11:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=161495"},"modified":"2020-05-23T05:07:42","modified_gmt":"2020-05-23T04:07:42","slug":"europe-should-brace-for-second-wave-says-eu-coronavirus-chief","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2020\/05\/europe-should-brace-for-second-wave-says-eu-coronavirus-chief\/","title":{"rendered":"Europe Should Brace for Second Wave, Says EU Coronavirus Chief"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p><em>\u2018The question is how big,\u2019 says Dr Andrea Ammon, who thinks March skiing breaks were pivotal to spread.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><em>20 May 2020 &#8211; <\/em>The prospect of a second wave of coronavirus infection across <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/europe-news\" class=\"u-underline\"  data-link-name=\"auto-linked-tag\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\">Europe<\/a> is no longer a distant theory, according to the director of the EU agency responsible for advising governments \u2013 including the UK \u2013 on disease control.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe question is when and how big, that is the question in my view,\u201d said Dr Andrea Ammon, director of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).<\/p>\n<p>It has been the unenviable task of scientists to tell it as it is through the coronavirus pandemic. While politicians have been caught offering empty reassurances, the epidemiologists, a job title new to many, have emerged as the straight shooters of the crisis, sometimes to their detriment.<\/p>\n<p>And Ammon, a former adviser to the German government, speaks frankly in her first interview with a UK newspaper since the crisis began.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"element element-rich-link element-rich-link--tag element--thumbnail element-rich-link--upgraded\" data-component=\"rich-link-tag\" data-link-name=\"rich-link-tag\">\n<div class=\"rich-link tone-news--item rich-link--pillar-news\">\n<div class=\"rich-link__container\">\n<div class=\"rich-link__image-container u-responsive-ratio\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"rich-link__header\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p>\u201cLooking at the characteristics of the virus, looking at what now emerges from the different countries in terms of population immunity \u2013 which isn\u2019t all that exciting, between 2% and 14%, that leaves still 85% to 90% of the population susceptible \u2013 the virus is around us, circulating much more than January and February \u2026 I don\u2019t want to draw a doomsday picture but I think we have to be realistic. That it\u2019s not the time now to completely relax.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this month the former hospital doctor, who worked through the various levels of healthcare bureaucracy to be become ECDC director in 2017, announced that, as of 2 May, Europe as a whole had passed the peak of infections. Only Poland was technically not yet there, she said.<\/p>\n<p>European governments have started easing their lockdown restrictions, some to the extent that bars and restaurants will soon reopen, others rather more tentatively. Boris Johnson has tweaked his message to Britons from \u201cstay at home\u201d to \u201cstay alert\u201d and is seeking to send pupils back into schools in a fortnight.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"img-2\" class=\"element element-image img--landscape  fig--narrow-caption fig--has-shares \" data-component=\"image\" data-media-id=\"b45712c2dfe5082ec43b09d6fd7b0aace127f513\">\n<div class=\"u-responsive-ratio\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/b45712c2dfe5082ec43b09d6fd7b0aace127f513\/0_378_5666_3403\/master\/5666.jpg?width=620&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=c5012d9ddeeef9a68faf9f4d0ae2bcab 1240w\" media=\"(min-width: 660px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 660px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\" sizes=\"620px\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/b45712c2dfe5082ec43b09d6fd7b0aace127f513\/0_378_5666_3403\/master\/5666.jpg?width=620&amp;quality=85&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;s=01b908e69830fcf6f5dc23b056e563bc 620w\" media=\"(min-width: 660px)\" sizes=\"620px\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/b45712c2dfe5082ec43b09d6fd7b0aace127f513\/0_378_5666_3403\/master\/5666.jpg?width=605&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=e544007121a3973933cdae0f6299ca59 1210w\" media=\"(min-width: 480px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 480px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\" sizes=\"605px\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/b45712c2dfe5082ec43b09d6fd7b0aace127f513\/0_378_5666_3403\/master\/5666.jpg?width=605&amp;quality=85&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;s=c200b196420edebdac2c499b836630b0 605w\" media=\"(min-width: 480px)\" sizes=\"605px\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/b45712c2dfe5082ec43b09d6fd7b0aace127f513\/0_378_5666_3403\/master\/5666.jpg?width=445&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=1799dde77bc4611a77e10138ba4f8cd6 890w\" media=\"(min-width: 0px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 0px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\" sizes=\"445px\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/b45712c2dfe5082ec43b09d6fd7b0aace127f513\/0_378_5666_3403\/master\/5666.jpg?width=445&amp;quality=85&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;s=523a125bc559bc043b5edc2d605b6dcc 445w\" media=\"(min-width: 0px)\" sizes=\"445px\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"gu-image aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/b45712c2dfe5082ec43b09d6fd7b0aace127f513\/0_378_5666_3403\/master\/5666.jpg?width=300&amp;quality=85&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;s=40aaa37644141f6128e02b64308f2713\" alt=\"The beach in Southend on Sea, England, 17 May.\" \/> <\/picture><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<figure id=\"img-2\" class=\"element element-image img--landscape  fig--narrow-caption fig--has-shares \" data-component=\"image\" data-media-id=\"b45712c2dfe5082ec43b09d6fd7b0aace127f513\"><figcaption class=\"caption caption--img caption caption--img\"><strong>\u2018The virus is around us\u2019 &#8230; the beach in Southend-on-Sea, England, 17 May. <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Photograph: John Keeble\/Getty Images<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Ammon\u2019s job is to scrutinise the fallout and catch any rise in infections early. Talking through Skype from her kitchen at home, from where she has been working remotely for the last two months, she insists a disastrous second wave is not inevitable if people stick to the rules and keep their distance.<\/p>\n<p>But she detects an ominous weakening of the public\u2019s resolve.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think now it\u2019s beginning to strain. What we see is that, on the one hand, the economic part for small and medium-sized businesses but also the experience of people not being able to exercise all the freedoms that we normally have: to go where we like, to be with whom we want to be. And this is a quite fundamental change to our normal way of life.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAnd especially now when it is clear [infections] are going down, people think it is over. Which it isn\u2019t, which it definitely isn\u2019t.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Asked whether the data was showing any repercussions, Ammon gave a deadpan answer. \u201cNot yet. I mean, maybe it doesn\u2019t come ever, maybe all the adjustment of these measures is done in a prudent way. This is something we are really right now are closely monitoring: what is happening after all these measures.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As of Wednesday 158,134 people have died from Covid-19 in the EU and the UK, Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland, according to ECDC data for the countries the agency monitors.<\/p>\n<p>The UK has the highest level of deaths in Europe, with 35,341, followed by Italy (32,169) and France (28,022).<\/p>\n<p>A total of 1,324,183 cases of infection have been reported. Among those is a member of Ammon\u2019s own staff. Only a skeleton group of fewer than 10 now work in the agency\u2019s office in Stockholm.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPart of our crisis team that needs to be there because they need very close cooperation. But they\u2019re sitting wide apart. Honestly. We have to do what we preach.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ammon recalls that it was only in late January that it had become clear that a novel virus causing a cluster of deaths in the Chinese city of Wuhan could be transmitted human to human, with initial concerns focusing on the possibility of the disease spreading through imports.<\/p>\n<p>As the extremely contagious nature of the virus emerged, the ECDC advised governments on 26 January to strengthen the capacities of their health services. There was fear of them being overwhelmed, as was shortly to be the case with tragic results in Lombardy in northern Italy.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe did really emphasise that these plans have to be updated. And in particular, the hospital preparedness needs to be looked at, how to make sure to have a surge capacity for beds, in general, but also in particular for intensive care unit beds.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think what turned out is that [the governments] underestimated, in my view, the speed of how this increase came. Because, I mean, you know, it\u2019s a different situation if you have to look for an increased capacity of beds within two weeks or within two days.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ammon believes that when the inevitable inquiries look into the twists and turns of the crisis, the return of holidaymakers from Alpine skiing breaks in the first week of March will be seen as a pivotal moment in the spread of Covid-19 into Europe.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"img-3\" class=\"element element-image img--landscape  fig--narrow-caption fig--has-shares \" data-component=\"image\" data-media-id=\"c412a708b4043f100d8b76ce8815ed7db9f17ed2\">\n<div class=\"u-responsive-ratio\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/c412a708b4043f100d8b76ce8815ed7db9f17ed2\/33_481_5684_3411\/master\/5684.jpg?width=620&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=84e12e1a9a6bdd826d2c8bd429236c2d 1240w\" media=\"(min-width: 660px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 660px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\" sizes=\"620px\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/c412a708b4043f100d8b76ce8815ed7db9f17ed2\/33_481_5684_3411\/master\/5684.jpg?width=620&amp;quality=85&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;s=693636b51653f39988dd4ecc9e410c6f 620w\" media=\"(min-width: 660px)\" sizes=\"620px\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/c412a708b4043f100d8b76ce8815ed7db9f17ed2\/33_481_5684_3411\/master\/5684.jpg?width=605&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=3a9d557b392300085649a769b82fe405 1210w\" media=\"(min-width: 480px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 480px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\" sizes=\"605px\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/c412a708b4043f100d8b76ce8815ed7db9f17ed2\/33_481_5684_3411\/master\/5684.jpg?width=605&amp;quality=85&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;s=f3262a935508df7fdfac576aee018523 605w\" media=\"(min-width: 480px)\" sizes=\"605px\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/c412a708b4043f100d8b76ce8815ed7db9f17ed2\/33_481_5684_3411\/master\/5684.jpg?width=445&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=90304bd59dbedaa2daea9a4965ebb8fa 890w\" media=\"(min-width: 0px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 0px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\" sizes=\"445px\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/c412a708b4043f100d8b76ce8815ed7db9f17ed2\/33_481_5684_3411\/master\/5684.jpg?width=445&amp;quality=85&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;s=e37e755ab83e2fe2b434ea57cc6137b0 445w\" media=\"(min-width: 0px)\" sizes=\"445px\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"gu-image aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/c412a708b4043f100d8b76ce8815ed7db9f17ed2\/33_481_5684_3411\/master\/5684.jpg?width=300&amp;quality=85&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;s=917eac1e55f9c6ccd7925652569b4e25\" alt=\"A tourist wearing a protective respiratory mask tours outside the in Rome, 28 February.\" \/> <\/picture><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<figure id=\"img-3\" class=\"element element-image img--landscape  fig--narrow-caption fig--has-shares \" data-component=\"image\" data-media-id=\"c412a708b4043f100d8b76ce8815ed7db9f17ed2\"><figcaption class=\"caption caption--img caption caption--img\"><strong>A tourist wearing a protective respiratory mask in Rome on 28 February.<\/strong><br \/>\nPhotograph: Andreas Solaro\/AFP via Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u201cBecause at that time we saw that new cases all over Europe [and] actually [they] had been in the skiing places in the Alps, in Italy, Austria. I mean this is a crowded place, the ski resorts, and then you have these cabins that you go up the mountain and these are really crammed. Yeah, it\u2019s just perfect for such a virus. I mean I am pretty sure that this contributed to the wide spread in Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Lockdowns followed \u2013 a theoretical possibility in the pandemic planning that few believed was feasible. \u201cI remember when China put the lockdown to Wuhan, people told me, \u2018Look this wouldn\u2019t be possible in Europe.\u2019 Hmm.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Now the lockdowns were straining the public\u2019s tolerance, she said, but questioned whether they still came in too late and whether swifter action could have saved more lives. \u201cI believe if we would have put in these measures earlier, it might have been possible, but \u2026 these measures are so stark, I mean they are so out of our experience that it, I think it needed \u2026 unfortunately the situation in northern Italy to make everybody clear that it is necessary.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ammon now believes the battle with coronavirus will be a long haul. \u201cI don\u2019t know whether it\u2019s forever but I don\u2019t think it will go away very quickly. It seems to be very well adapted to humans.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>She is yet to book a summer holiday and warns those craving a break away to prepare for some disappointment. \u201cWhat we are saying is that they should be prepared that even if there are some holidays and they go somewhere, it will not be comparable to what they had last year. At this stage we cannot say you can go out there, wash your hands and everything is fine. You have to keep your distance. These measures have to be in place.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But despite the privations of recent months, Ammon expresses little sympathy for the argument put forward by some, including the former supreme court judge Jonathan Sumption that merely shielding the elderly would have been sufficient.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPeople who are perfectly healthy are also getting severe illness and they die. Knowing what we have seen in Europe with approximately 10% of the population [infected] I think there is for me not an option to let this go. If the the other 90% would have come as well, I think we don\u2019t want to think of this.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/may\/20\/top-eu-doctor-europe-should-brace-itself-for-second-wave-of-coronavirus\" >Go to Original &#8211; theguardian.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>20 May 2020 &#8211; The prospect of a second wave of coronavirus infection across Europe is no longer a distant theory, according to  Dr Andrea Ammon, director of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. \u201cThe question is when and how big, that is the question in my view.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":159082,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[244,271,1879,1829,1868,289,744,401,433,1268,710,1937,1864,1102,723,304,1447,1956,1880,1957,339,124,1836,75],"class_list":["post-161495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe","tag-china","tag-community","tag-compassion","tag-coronavirus","tag-covid-19","tag-economy","tag-empathy","tag-environment","tag-europe","tag-european-union","tag-health","tag-lockdown","tag-pandemic","tag-public-health","tag-research","tag-science","tag-science-and-medicine","tag-semen","tag-sharing","tag-sperm","tag-trade","tag-united-nations","tag-who","tag-world"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=161495"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161495\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/159082"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=161495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=161495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=161495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}