{"id":166440,"date":"2020-08-17T12:00:06","date_gmt":"2020-08-17T11:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=166440"},"modified":"2020-08-07T05:12:27","modified_gmt":"2020-08-07T04:12:27","slug":"130-degrees","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2020\/08\/130-degrees\/","title":{"rendered":"130 Degrees"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency,<\/em><\/a> by Mark Lynas, London: 4th Estate, 372 pp.<\/h4>\n<\/blockquote>\n
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Illustration by Anders Nilsen<\/p><\/div>\n

20 Aug 2020 Issue – <\/em>So now we have some sense of what it\u2019s like: a full-on global-scale crisis, one that disrupts everything. Normal life\u2014shopping for food, holding a wedding, going to work, seeing your parents\u2014shifts dramatically. The world feels<\/i> different, with every assumption about safety and predictability upended. Will you have a job? Will you die? Will you ever ride a subway again, or take a plane? It\u2019s unlike anything we\u2019ve ever seen.<\/p>\n

The upheaval that has been caused by Covid-19 is also very much a harbinger of global warming. Because humans have fundamentally altered the physical workings of planet Earth, this is going to be a century of crises, many of them more dangerous than what we\u2019re living through now. The main question is whether we\u2019ll be able to hold the rise in temperature to a point where we can, at great expense and suffering, deal with those crises coherently, or whether they will overwhelm the coping abilities of our civilization. The latter is a distinct possibility, as Mark Lynas\u2019s new book, Our Final Warning<\/i>, makes painfully clear.<\/p>\n

Lynas is a British journalist and activist, and in 2007, in the run-up to the Copenhagen climate conference, he published a book titled Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet<\/i>. His new volume echoes that earlier work, which was by no means cheerful. But because scientists have spent the last decade dramatically increasing understanding of the Earth\u2019s systems, and because our societies wasted that decade by pouring ever more carbon into the atmosphere, this book\u2014impeccably sourced and careful to hew to the wide body of published research\u2014is far, far darker. As Lynas says in his opening sentences, he had long assumed that we \u201ccould probably survive climate change. Now I am not so sure.\u201d<\/p>\n

The nations that use fossil fuel in large quantities have raised the temperature of the planet one degree Celsius (that\u2019s about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above its level before the Industrial Revolution. We passed the mark around 2015, which was coincidentally also the year we reached the first real global accords on climate action, in Paris. A rise of one degree doesn\u2019t sound like an extraordinary change, but it is: each second, the carbon and methane we\u2019ve emitted trap heat equivalent to the explosion of three Hiroshima-sized bombs. The carbon dioxide sensors erected in 1959 on the shoulder of the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii recorded a new record high in late May of this year, showing an atmosphere of about 417 parts per million CO<\/abbr>2, more than a hundred above the levels our great-great-grandparents would have known, and indeed higher than anything in at least the last three million years.<\/p>\n

As we drive and heat and light and build, we put about 35 billion tons of CO<\/abbr>2 into the atmosphere annually. At the moment oceans and forests soak up slightly more than half of that, but as we shall see, that grace is not to be depended on into the future, and in any event it means we still add about 18 billion tons annually to the air. That is by far the most important bottom line for the planet\u2019s future.<\/p>\n

A survey of the damage done at one degree is impressive and unsettling, especially since in almost every case it exceeds what scientists would have predicted thirty years ago. (Scientists, it turns out, are by nature cautious.) Lynas offers a planetary tour of the current carnage, ranging from Greenland (where melt rates are already at the level once predicted for 2070); to the world\u2019s forests (across the planet, fire season has increased in duration by a fifth); to urban areas in Asia and the Middle East, which in the last few summers have seen the highest reliably recorded temperatures on Earth, approaching 54 degrees Celsius, or 130 degrees Fahrenheit. It is a one-degree world that has seen a girdle of bleached coral across the tropics\u2014a 90 percent collapse in reproductive success along the Great Barrier Reef, the planet\u2019s largest living structure\u2014and the appalling scenes from Australia in December, as thousands of people waded into the ocean at resort towns to escape the firestorms barreling down from the hills.<\/p>\n

Consider what we\u2019ve seen so far as a baseline: we\u2019re definitely not going to get any cooler. But now consider the real problem, the news that scientists have been trying to get across for many years but that has not really sunk in with the public or with political leaders. As Lynas puts it:<\/p>\n

If we stay on the current business-as-usual trajectory, we could see two degrees as soon as the early 2030s, three degrees around mid-century, and four degrees by 2075 or so. If we\u2019re unlucky with positive feedbacks\u2026from thawing permafrost in the Arctic or collapsing tropical rainforests, then we could be in for five or even six degrees by century\u2019s end.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That\u2019s a paragraph worth reading again. It\u2019s an aggressive reading of the available science (research published in early July estimates we could cross the 1.5-degree threshold by 2025), but it\u2019s not outlandish. And it implies an unimaginable future. Two degrees will not be twice as bad as one, or three degrees three times as bad. The damage is certain to increase exponentially, not linearly, because the Earth will move past grave tipping points as we slide up this thermometer.<\/p>\n

You may be thinking: Didn\u2019t the world leaders who signed the Paris climate accords commit to holding temperature increases to \u201cwell below\u201d two degrees Celsius, and as close as possible to 1.5 degrees? They did\u2014in the preamble to the agreement. But then they appended their actual pledges, country by country. When scientists added up all those promises\u2014to cut emissions, to build renewable energy, to save forests\u2014and fed them into a computer, it spit out the news that we are headed for about a 3.5-degree rise this century. And not enough countries are keeping the promises they made in Paris\u2014indeed, our country, which has produced far more carbon than any other over the last two centuries, has withdrawn from the accords entirely, led by a president who has pronounced climate change a hoax. The En-ROADS<\/abbr> online simulator, developed by Climate Interactive, a nonprofit think tank, predicts that at this point we can expect a 4.1-degree rise in temperature this century\u20147.4 degrees Fahrenheit. All of which is to say that, unless we get to work on a scale few nations are currently planning, Lynas\u2019s careful degree-by-degree delineation is a straight-on forecast for our future. It\u2019s also a tour of hell.<\/p>\n

We might as well take that tour systematically, as Lynas does.<\/p>\n

At two degrees\u2019 elevated temperature, \u201cscientists are now confident\u201d that we will see an Arctic Ocean free of ice in the summer\u2014when already the loss of ice in the North has dramatically altered weather systems, apparently weakening the jet stream and stalling weather patterns in North America and elsewhere. A two-degree rise in temperature could see 40 percent of the permafrost region melt away, which in turn would release massive amounts of methane and carbon, which would whisk us nearer to three degrees. But we\u2019re getting ahead of the story. Two degrees likely also initiates the \u201cirreversible loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet.\u201d Even modest estimates of the resulting sea-level rise project that 79 million people will be displaced, and protecting vulnerable cities and towns just along the Eastern Seaboard of the US behind dikes and walls will cost as much as $1 million per person. \u201cI suspect no one will want to pay for sea walls at such vast expense, and the most vulnerable (and the poorest) communities will simply be abandoned,\u201d Lynas writes.<\/p>\n

Researchers once hoped that modest warming of two degrees might actually slightly increase food production, but \u201cnow these rosy expectations look dangerously na\u00efve.\u201d He cites recent studies predicting that two degrees will reduce \u201cglobal food availability\u201d by about 99 calories a day\u2014again, obviously, the pain will not be equally or fairly shared. Cities will grow steadily hotter: current warming means everyone in the Northern Hemisphere is effectively moving southward at about 12.5 miles a year. That\u2019s half a millimeter a second, which is actually easy to see with the naked eye: \u201ca slow-moving giant conveyor belt\u201d transporting us \u201cdeeper and deeper towards the sub-tropics at the same speed as the second hand on a small wristwatch.\u201d<\/p>\n

But that statistical average masks extremes: we can expect ever-fiercer heatwaves, so, for instance, in China hundreds of millions of people will deal with temperatures they\u2019ve never encountered before. The natural world will suffer dramatically\u201499 percent of coral reefs are likely to die, reducing one of the most fascinating (and productive) corners of creation to \u201cflattened, algae-covered rubble.\u201d<\/p>\n

As we head past two degrees and into the realm of three, \u201cwe will stress our civilization towards the point of collapse.\u201d A three-degree rise in temperature takes us to a level of global heat no human has ever experienced\u2014you have to wind time back at least to the Pleistocene, three million years ago, before the Ice Ages. In his last volume, Lynas said scientists thought the onset of the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet would take place at four degrees; now, as we\u2019ve seen above, it seems a deadly concern at two, and a certainty at three. Higher sea levels mean that storm surges like those that marked Superstorm Sandy in 2012 could be expected, on average, three times a year. The record-setting heatwaves of 2019 \u201cwill be considered an unusually cool summer in the three-degree world\u201d; over a billion people would live in zones of the planet \u201cwhere it becomes impossible to safely work outside artificially cooled environments, even in the shade.\u201d The Amazon dies back, permafrost collapses. Change feeds on itself: at three degrees the albedo, or reflectivity, of the planet is grossly altered, with white ice that bounces sunshine back out to space replaced by blue ocean or brown land that absorbs those rays, amplifying the process.<\/p>\n

And then comes four degrees:<\/p>\n

Humans as a species are not facing extinction\u2014not yet anyway. But advanced industrial civilisation, with its constantly increasing levels of material consumption, energy use and living standards\u2014the system that we call modernity\u2026is tottering.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In places like Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas, peak temperatures each year will be hotter than the 120s one now finds in Death Valley, and three quarters of the globe\u2019s population will be \u201cexposed to deadly heat more than 20 days per year.\u201d In New York, the number will be fifty days; in Jakarta, 365. A \u201cbelt of uninhabitability\u201d will run through the Middle East, most of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and eastern China; expanding deserts will consume whole countries \u201cfrom Iraq to Botswana.\u201d<\/p>\n

Depending on the study, the risk of \u201cvery large fires\u201d in the western US rises between 100 and 600 percent; the risk of flooding in India rises twenty-fold. Right now the risk that the biggest grain-growing regions will have simultaneous crop failures due to drought is \u201cvirtually zero,\u201d but at four degrees \u201cthis probability rises to 86%.\u201d Vast \u201cmarine heatwaves\u201d will scour the oceans: \u201cOne study projects that in a four-degree world sea temperatures will be above the thermal tolerance threshold of 100% of species in many tropical marine ecoregions.\u201d The extinctions on land and sea will certainly be the worst since the end of the Cretaceous, 65 million years ago, when an asteroid helped bring the age of the dinosaurs to an end. \u201cThe difference,\u201d Lynas notes, \u201cis that this time the \u2018meteor\u2019 was visible decades in advance, but we simply turned away as it loomed ever larger in the sky.\u201d<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not going to bother much with Lynas\u2019s descriptions of what happens at five degrees or six. It\u2019s not that they\u2019re not plausible\u2014they are, especially if humanity never gets its act together and shifts course. It\u2019s that they\u2019re pornographic. If we get anywhere near these levels, the living will truly envy the dead: this is a world where people are trying to crowd into Patagonia or perhaps the South Island of New Zealand, a world where massive monsoons wash away soil down to the rock, where the oceans turn anoxic, or completely deprived of oxygen. Forget the Cretaceous and the asteroids\u2014at six degrees we\u2019re approaching the kind of damage associated with the end of the Permian, the greatest biological cataclysm in the planet\u2019s history, when 90 percent of species disappeared. Does that seem hyperbolic? At the moment our cars and factories are increasing the planet\u2019s CO<\/abbr>2 concentration roughly ten times faster than the giant Siberian volcanoes that drove that long-ago disaster.<\/p>\n

With the climate crisis, returning to \u201cnormal\u201d is not a feasible goal\u2014no one is going to produce a vaccine.*<\/a><\/sup> But that doesn\u2019t mean we have no possibilities. In fact, right now we have more options than at any previous point in the climate fight, but we would need to use them at dramatic scale and with dramatic speed.<\/p>\n

For one thing, engineers have done their work and done it well. About a decade ago the price of renewable energy began to plummet, and that decline keeps accelerating. The price per kilowatt hour of solar power has fallen 82 percent since 2010\u2014this spring in the sunny deserts of Dubai the winning bid for what will be the world\u2019s largest solar array came in at not much more than a penny. The price of wind power has fallen nearly as dramatically. Now batteries are whooshing down the same curve. In many places, within a few years, it will actually be cheaper to build new solar arrays than it will be to keep running already-built-and-paid-for gas and coal-fired power plants. (That\u2019s because, when the sun comes up in the morning, it delivers the power for free.) Because of this, and because of strong campaigns from activists targeting banks and asset managers, investors have begun to move decisively toward renewable energy. Such activist campaigns have also begun to weaken the political power of the fossil fuel industry, which has used its clout for three decades to block a transition to new forms of energy.<\/p>\n

But\u2014and this is the terrible sticking point\u2014economics itself won\u2019t move us nearly fast enough. Inertia is a powerful force\u2014inertia, and the need to abandon trillions of dollars of \u201cstranded assets.\u201d That is, vast reserves of oil and gas that currently underpin the value of companies (and of countries that act like companies\u2014think Saudi Arabia) would need to be left in the ground; infrastructure like pipelines and powerplants would need to be shuttered long before their useful life is over. This process would probably create more jobs than it eliminated (fossil fuel tends to be capital-intensive, and renewable energy labor-intensive), but political systems respond more to current jobholders than to their potential replacements. The poorest nations should not be expected to pay as much as rich nations for the transition: they\u2019re already dealing with the staggering cost of rising sea levels and melting glaciers, which they did very little to cause. So even absent leaders like Donald Trump, the required effort is enormous\u2014that\u2019s precisely why those pledges by the signatories in Paris fell so far short of the targets they\u2019d set. And leaders like Trump not only exist, they seem to be multiplying: Brazil\u2019s Jair Bolsonaro can singlehandedly rewrite the climate math simply by continuing to encourage Amazonian deforestation. It will take a mighty and ongoing movement to speed up change.<\/p>\n

What Lynas\u2019s book should perhaps have made slightly more explicit is how little margin we have to accomplish these tasks. In a coda, he writes valiantly, \u201cIt is not too late, and in fact it never will be too late. Just as 1.5\u00b0C is better than 2\u00b0C, so 2\u00b0C is better than 2.5\u00b0C, 3\u00b0C is better than 3.5\u00b0C and so on. We should never give up.\u201d This is inarguable, at least emotionally. It\u2019s just that, as the studies he cites makes clear, if we go to two degrees, that will cause feedbacks that take us automatically higher. At a certain point, it will <\/i>be too late. The first of these deadlines might be 2030\u2014the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in 2018, told us we needed a \u201cfundamental transformation\u201d of energy systems by that date or the targets set in Paris would slip through our grasp. (By \u201cfundamental transformation,\u201d it meant a 50 percent fall in emissions.) That is, the period in which we retain the most leverage to really affect the outcome may be measured in years that correspond to the digits on your two hands.<\/p>\n

The Covid pandemic has provided us with some way to gauge how important time is in a crisis. South Korea and the US reported their first casualties on the same day in January. And then the American government wasted February as the president dithered and tweeted; now Seoul has something closer to normalcy, and we have something closer to chaos. (In a single day in July, the state of Florida reported more cases than South Korea had registered since the start of the pandemic.) As the US wasted February spinning its wheels on the pandemic, so the planet has wasted thirty years. Speed matters, now more than ever. And of course the remarkable progress made by the Black Lives Matter protests this summer reminds us both that activism can be successful and that environmental efforts need to be strongly linked to other campaigns for social justice. The climate plan announced by the Biden campaign last month is a credible start toward the necessary effort.<\/p>\n

The pandemic provides some useful sense of scale\u2014some sense of how much we\u2019re going to have to change to meet the climate challenge. We ended business as usual for a time this spring, pretty much across the planet\u2014changed our lifestyles far more than we\u2019d imagined possible. We stopped flying, stopped commuting, stopped many factories. The bottom line was that emissions fell, but not by as much as you might expect: by many calculations little more than 10 or 15 percent. What that seems to indicate is that most of the momentum destroying our Earth is hardwired into the systems that run it. Only by attacking those systems\u2014ripping out the fossil-fueled guts and replacing them with renewable energy, even as we make them far more efficient\u2014can we push emissions down to where we stand a chance. Not, as Lynas sadly makes clear, a chance at stopping global warming. A chance at surviving.<\/p>\n

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  1. *<\/span>Some have called for \u201cgeoengineering\u201d solutions to global warming\u2014techniques like spraying sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere in an attempt to block incoming sunshine, which would do nothing to slow the other dire crisis caused by the burst of carbon we\u2019ve sent into the air, the acidification of the ocean, and might well wreak new forms of havoc with the planet\u2019s weather. Such methods are rightly described by Lynas as at best a Faustian bargain: \u201cThe planet we would bring into being would not be the Earth I love and want to protect.\u201d\u00a0\u21a9<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    ____________________________________________<\/p>\n

    Bill McKibben is the founder of 350.org and Schumann \u00adDistinguished Scholar at Middlebury. His new book is <\/em>Falter: Has the Human Game Played Itself Out? (August 2020)<\/em><\/p>\n

    Go to Original – nybooks.com<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency, by Mark Lynas, London: 4th Estate, 372 pp. – So now we have some sense of what it\u2019s like: a global-scale crisis that disrupts everything–shopping for food, holding a wedding, going to work, seeing your parents. Will you ever ride a subway again, or take a plane? The upheaval that has been caused by Covid-19 is also very much a harbinger of global warming. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":166441,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[67],"tags":[686,401,993],"class_list":["post-166440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-reviews","tag-climate-change","tag-environment","tag-global-warming"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/166440","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=166440"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/166440\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/166441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=166440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=166440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=166440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}