{"id":166888,"date":"2020-08-17T12:00:54","date_gmt":"2020-08-17T11:00:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=166888"},"modified":"2024-06-12T21:25:06","modified_gmt":"2024-06-12T20:25:06","slug":"while-israel-celebrates-a-new-peace-accord-palestinians-once-again-lose","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2020\/08\/while-israel-celebrates-a-new-peace-accord-palestinians-once-again-lose\/","title":{"rendered":"While Israel Celebrates a New Peace Accord, Palestinians Once Again Lose"},"content":{"rendered":"

Netanyahu may have agreed to halt annexation of parts of the West Bank, but the UAE has ensured the occupation itself is normalised.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers a statement overlooking the Israeli settlement of Har Homa, in Israeli-occupied West Bank on February 20, 2020. [File: Debbie Hill\/Pool via Reuters]<\/p><\/div>14 Aug 2020 – <\/em>Who could be against an announcement of peace between two nations<\/a> formally at war? Who could possibly object to Israel calling a halt to a move that would have entrenched yet deeper the loss of territory Palestinians need for a state of their own? We got the answer on Thursday [13 Aut], when Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu and the de-facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan \u2013 MBZ to his friends \u2013 announced what Trump called a \u201chistorical <\/a>peace <\/a>agreement<\/a>\u201d between Israel and the Gulf state. In return for \u201cfull normalisation\u201d of relations, Israel said it would suspend its planned annexation of large chunks of the West Bank.<\/p>\n

Sounds great, right? There was immediate praise from the United Nations<\/a>, from Britain<\/a> and France<\/a>, from Egypt, from Trump\u2019s November opponent, Joe Biden, and from veterans<\/a> of the once-real \u201cpeace process\u201d. The talk now is of a signing ceremony at the White House within weeks, with more Gulf states \u2013 Bahrain and Oman are the obvious candidates \u2013 set to follow the UAE\u2019s lead in the coming days.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no denying that we all need a ray of light in the gloom of 2020, but this one should be approached with caution. A quick look at the winners and losers might tell you why.<\/p>\n

An obvious beneficiary is Trump, who now has a trophy to hold aloft in the run-up to election day. To be sure, not many Americans are about to switch their vote because of a diplomatic shift in the faraway Gulf. But it does allow Trump to claim a foreign policy achievement, albeit one dwarfed by his multiple foreign policy failures, whether getting suckered by North Korea or undermining the Iran nuclear deal. He\u2019s always coveted the Nobel peace prize that Barack Obama bagged<\/a> before he\u2019d served a full year in office, so naturally Trump sent out his national security adviser to declare that the president \u201cshould be a frontrunner<\/a> for the Nobel Peace Prize\u201d.<\/p>\n

The bigger winner is Netanyahu, who also has an election on his mind. He\u2019s thinking of triggering yet another one \u2013 it would be Israel\u2019s fourth in just over 18 months \u2013 and the UAE\u2019s move gives him a valuable advantage. On trial for corruption<\/a>, blamed for botching Israel\u2019s initially effective handling of coronavirus and for a battered economy, his home besieged by furious protesters, Netanyahu can now divert attention away from all that and focus on the terrain he has made his own: \u201cnational security\u201d. He can pose as the statesman poised to sign the first Israeli accord with an Arab state since the handshake with Jordan back in 1994, the global player who towers over his rivals. He was careful to brief that his former opponent and coalition partner, Benny Gantz, did not even know<\/a> about the UAE deal until it was on the news.<\/p>\n

The gains for Netanyahu are not merely electoral. By agreeing to give up annexation \u2013 which plenty of observers reckoned was always an empty threat<\/a> in any case \u2013 he has been generously rewarded, even though the West Bank remains occupied and Palestinians are still denied basic rights. Netanyahu is the man who picks your pocket, then expects a prize for agreeing not to hit you over the head. The UAE has handed him just such a prize. As one Middle East hand jokes: \u201cNext time he should threaten to annex Jordan \u2013 that way he\u2019ll get a peace treaty with Saudi Arabia.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Don\u2019t joke: the UAE could well be flying a trial balloon for the Saudis, as Riyadh monitors global reaction to this step. For now, the Emiratis are hailing a diplomatic win, hoping to reap the prestige that comes with being \u201cthe first mover\u201d, as one UAE official put it to me. They\u2019ve also hedged their US bets for November: either they\u2019ve boosted Trump, and he\u2019ll owe them, or they\u2019ve made a play that\u2019s likely to win favour with Team Biden and the peace-process stalwarts who surround him. \u201cMBZ has just taken out his insurance policy,\u201d says one longtime observer.<\/p>\n

For MBZ, an alliance with Israel makes good sense. There\u2019s the obvious strategic logic that has long made Sunni Gulf states willing to cosy up to Israel: namely, their shared fear and loathing of Shia Iran. It\u2019s that which has fuelled discreet cooperation with Israel, especially in intelligence matters, for several years. In the period when Iran was loudly pursuing its nuclear ambitions, the Gulf states grew to see their enemy\u2019s enemy<\/a> \u2013 Israel \u2013 as a potential friend.<\/p>\n

But there\u2019s a narrower calculation too. The end of annexation is a relief to authoritarian rulers such as MBZ: it might have sparked a Palestinian movement for equal rights, one whose message could have spread across the region, perhaps \u2013 who knows \u2013 even catching fire with MBZ\u2019s own subjects. Best for him if it\u2019s snuffed out.<\/p>\n

Which brings us to the people conspicuously missing from that list of winners: the Palestinians. Throughout their history they have seen their fate determined by others, thanks to decisions taken without their knowledge, let alone consent. And now it\u2019s happened again<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For many decades, the Arab world insisted that there could be no normalisation, no peace, with Israel without some measure of justice for the Palestinians. When Egypt and Israel reached agreement in 1978<\/a> not much was promised to the Palestinians, but there was something; the accord with Jordan in 1994 went further, including substantial commitments predicated on Palestinians\u2019 direct involvement. But the UAE has abandoned the Palestinians entirely.<\/p>\n