{"id":168039,"date":"2020-09-07T12:01:05","date_gmt":"2020-09-07T11:01:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=168039"},"modified":"2020-09-06T09:36:58","modified_gmt":"2020-09-06T08:36:58","slug":"why-covid-19-is-a-strange-pandemic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2020\/09\/why-covid-19-is-a-strange-pandemic\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Covid-19 Is a \u201cStrange Pandemic\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

3 Sep 2020 – Why does covid-19 appear to be a somewhat strange pandemic? It is because of the covid-19 mortality profile, which is almost identical to natural mortality.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

To better understand this crucial point, we first look at two other well-known pandemics: the 2009 swine flu \u201cfake pandemic\u201d and the notorious 1918 \u201cSpanish flu\u201d pandemic.<\/p>\n

The 2009 swine flu<\/strong> was a \u201cfake pandemic\u201d<\/a> because in reality it was a rather mild flu that caused few deaths globally. It was labeled a \u201cpandemic\u201d in June 2009 only because the WHO had removed the requirement of \u201cenormous numbers of death and illness\u201d one month before. The pandemic warning then triggered a multi-billion dollar sale of rather useless and partially dangerous vaccines.<\/p>\n

The 2009 swine flu strain was mild because it was somewhat similar to a flu virus strain that had circulated prior to the 1957 Asian flu pandemic. This meant that most people over 60 years \u2013 the main risk group \u2013 had already developed immunity<\/a> against the new virus. And the virus simply wasn\u2019t dangerous enough to seriously threaten many people younger than 60 years.<\/p>\n

The 1918 \u201cSpanish flu\u201d virus<\/strong>, on the other hand, was a very dangerous virus that had a very different mortality profile. In addition to old people, it also killed babies and young children plus young adults between 20 and 45 years at very high rates (see chart at the bottom).<\/p>\n

In contrast, the mortality profile<\/a> of the covid-19 coronavirus<\/strong> is essentially zero for children and young adults and near zero below 50, before it begins to rise slowly and then very steeply above 70 and especially above 80, reaching extreme levels in nursing homes.<\/p>\n

Thus the covid-19 mortality profile is almost identical<\/a> to natural mortality. This doesn\u2019t mean that covid-19 doesn\u2019t increase someone\u2019s risk of death \u2013 it absolutely does \u2013 but this increase is proportional to the pre-existing risk of death of the respective age and risk group.<\/p>\n

The characteristics of covid-19 may have to do with the cardiovascular and immunological properties of the virus and they explain the high death rate in nursing homes (up to 70% of deaths), in people above 70 years (about 90%), and in Western countries in general. In contrast, covid death rates in Africa, predicted by many (including Bill Gates) to be high, have been very low.<\/p>\n

Many people expect a \u201creal pandemic\u201d to kill also younger people, or at least babies, at a significant rate, as the 1918 flu and other flu pandemics indeed did. Some skeptics therefore concluded that covid-19 must then be another \u201cfake pandemic\u201d. But it is not \u2013 it simply has a very different and much more \u201cnatural\u201d mortality profile.<\/p>\n

Because of the covid-19 mortality profile, mass PCR testing and contact tracing in the general population make little sense<\/a> and create an additional \u201ccasedemic\u201d<\/strong> on top of the pandemic. Mass vaccinations will also make rather little sense, especially because at the\u00a0 time experimental vaccines might become available, many people will already have been exposed to the wild virus.<\/p>\n

However, the mortality profile of covid-19 is only \u201cthe tip of iceberg\u201d. Covid-19 is also causing many standard and intensive care hospitalizations<\/strong> \u2013 even in people below 65 years \u2013 and it is causing post-acute \u201clong covid\u201d<\/a> in about 10% of symptomatic people, including many young and healthy people. These are potentially very serious issues that should not be downplayed in any way.<\/p>\n

The best currently available answer to these issues is early and prophylactic treatment<\/a> based on simple and effective means, as emphasized by many leading experts<\/a> from around the world. Simply isolating sick people at home until they cannot breathe anymore is the worst possible approach. Unfortunately, in most Western countries, it is still the most common approach.<\/p>\n

It is important to keep in mind that in many parts of Europe and some parts of the US, coronavirus antibody values<\/strong> are still very low (e.g. 2% in Germany<\/a>). Hence it is not reasonable at all to assume that the pandemic is already over. Even in global hotspots with a 20% antibody rate<\/a>, it is not at all certain if this is going to provide collective immunity during winter months.<\/p>\n

The following chart compares the very different mortality profiles of covid-19 and the 1918 flu. Note that even for the 85+ age group, covid-19 lethality doesn\u2019t reach the value of the 1918 flu, as the chart uses two different scales (left and right), and the covid scale is four times smaller.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Mortality by age group of covid-19 and the 1918 flu (DB Research and CDC)<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The following chart by Cambridge statistics professor David Spiegelhalter compares covid mortality to natural mortality. As mentioned above, covid does<\/em> increase the risk of death, but this increase is proportional to natural mortality. The curve appears linear because the scale is logarithmic.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Covid mortality and natural mortality (Spiegelhalter<\/a>)<\/strong>
\n__________________________________________<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Swiss Policy Research, founded in 2016, is an independent, nonpartisan and nonprofit research group investigating geopolitical propaganda in Swiss and international media. SPR is composed of independent academics that<\/em> for personal and professional reasons prefer to protect their identities,<\/em> and receives no external funding; t<\/em>here are no financial sponsors or backers. <\/em>Our articles have been published or shared by numerous independent media outlets and journalists, among them Julian Assange<\/a>, and have been translated into more than two dozen languages.<\/em><\/p>\n

Go to Original – swprs.org<\/a><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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