The recent developments in Pakistan\u2019s politics particularly the relations between the civilian government and military, in the background of troubled US-Pakistan relations exacerbated by the November killing of Pakistan soldiers by US drones and killing of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in May, will have far reaching implications not only for Pakistan, but also for Afghanistan, South Asia, and far beyond. Though the controversies surrounding relationship of civilian government with military leadership is nothing new in Pakistan\u2019s political history, but the recent developments in which the serving Prime Minister openly challenged the military on the floor of Parliament may be construed as a bold step and strong attempt to hold to reins of power despite the news of the military\u2019s discomfiture over the \u2018memogate\u2019 and the developments aftermath.<\/p>\n
One of the prominent newspapers of Pakistan, The Nation<\/em>, in its report on 23 December 2011 covered in detail the speech of Prime Minister Yusuf Raja Gilani on the floor of Parliament on 22 December 2011, in which he took strong position in pronouncing the policies of his government and its approach towards the army. Gilani, known for his cool demeanor and conciliatory approach took a strong position and declared that Pakistan people cannot tolerate, \u2018a state within a state,\u2019 which was an indirect reference to army. He argued, \u201cIf they (the military) say that they are not under the ministry of defence, then we should get out of this slavery, then this parliament has no importance, this system has no importance, then you are not sovereign.\u201d He strongly pitched his case for a civilian government by arguing, \u201cNobody is above the law, all the institutions are subservient to the parliament.\u201d The same day he told at the National Arts Gallery in Islamabad, \u201cI want to make it clear today that conspiracies are being hatched here to pack up the elected government,\u201d and made the resolve of his government, \u201cto fight for the rights of people of Pakistan whether or not we remain in the government.\u201d History stands witness that no democratically government in Pakistan has completed the usual mandated five years in office; hence the determination of the current government to stay in power might have emerged in the background of recent tussles between the military establishment and civilian government which came to power in February 2008.<\/p>\n In fact the tussle started aftermath of the killing of bin Laden on 2nd<\/sup> of May last year, but that remained more latent than active. The beans were spilled in October this year when the Pakistani origin US businessman Mansoor Ijaz revealed that the civilian government had sent a memo to the US General Mike Mullen seeking US support in case of an army takeover, as the killing of Laden was interpreted differently by various quarters in Pakistan. It had certainly eroded the credibility of the army, which had claimed to emerge as a crucial partner in the global war against terrorism. The same businessman also revealed that Pakistan\u2019s Intelligence agency Chief, General Ahmed Shuza Pasha travelled to the Persian Gulf after the killing of Laden to garner support for a coup in Pakistan. Former Pak Army Chief, Ziauddin Butt, who was appointed by Nawaz Sharif but remained in office for few days as Sharif government was overthrown and taken over by General Pervez Musharraf in 1999, told in one of his recent interviews to Pakistan Urdu daily Jung<\/em> that Laden stayed in Abbotabad in full knowledge of the army and of Musharraf. It may be a rational conjecture that a high profile figure like bin Laden could not have stayed in the military garrison town of Abbotabad, not far from Islamabad, without the knowledge of army or at least some influential segments in the army. The killing might have emerged as a challenge to the formidability of some sections of army establishment which were sympathetic to Laden, but that might have as well dented the credibility of the army which fought militants in Waziristan and claimed to have played major role in the global war against terrorism.<\/p>\n However, this revelation famously called memogate shook the government apparatus in Pakistan and sent into tizzy the relationship between civilian government of Zardari and the army headed by Ashraf Pervez Kayani. Heads started rolling, the first being the Pak Ambassador to Washington, Hussain Haqqani, who allegedly played a key role behind this memo. He was replaced by Sherry Rehman. Similarly, the visit of Zardari to Dubai early December 2011 also shrouded with speculations, which ranged from his sickness to his exile. But all those speculations were unfounded as Zardari returned safe to Pakistan. In meantime, the developments like the Judicial Commission enquiring into the killing of bin Laden raising issues of visas to Americans, and the demand of Army Chief Kayani and Intelligence Chief Pasha that the memogate must be enquired into by the Supreme Court of Pakistan, might have further unsettled the relationship between the civilian government and the military. Taking queue from the Judicial Commission, which raised the issue of visas to Americans, Gilani argued, \u201cI want to ask how was someone (bin Laden) living here for the past six years? On what type of visa was he living here? Why was security not taken care of, if he entered Pakistan without a visa?\u201d This argument indirectly but strongly cast aspersions on the army behind Laden\u2019s sojourn in Abbotabad for six long years.<\/p>\n Gilani further argued, perhaps in a way to reflect the earlier amicable relations between the civilian government and the military, that \u2018\u201cIn OBL (Osama bin Laden) case, we also stood by the establishment. Though we had some differences but we supported them. After Mumbai attacks, we also supported them and even fired General (Mahmud) Durrani.\u201d Mahmoud Durrani was dismissed on the insistence of the army, which did not like his comments on Mumbai attacks and allegedly involvement of Pak based terrorist groups in the attacks. The Nation<\/em> rightly pointed out that \u201cthe impression which the government tried to create of General Kayani\u2019s meeting with the Prime Minister and his phone call to President Zardari that all the differences have been largely removed was incorrect.\u201d The army\u2019s retort early this month that the pronouncements and actions of the civilian government may lead to \u2018grievous consequences\u2019 will further vitiate the relations between the civilian government and the army.<\/p>\n The differences in approaches of civilian government and the military will likely affect Pakistan\u2019s domestic policy as well as foreign policy. While the recent US drone attacks killing many Pak soldiers could bring the two together and strengthened their determination to put a strong face against drone attacks, resulting in the closure of Khyber Pass for NATO vehicles for supplying materials to Afghanistan, the recent differences will spiral Pakistan further down towards instability. It will be difficult to say whether army will take over power, or promote other opposition parties to take over power from Zardari government, but the differences point out two things clearly: that the civilian government has appeared stronger to point out its differences with army in unequivocal terms, and the army appears to have given up ambitions to topple civilian government despite strong differences. In this understanding lies the strength of Pakistan\u2019s democracy, otherwise any instability and chaos will severely jeopardize its capabilities to put a united face in Afghanistan, or even for a stable Pakistan.<\/p>\n ______________________<\/p>\n Dr Debidatta Aurobinda Mahapatra is a member of the TRANSCEND Network, currently part of the research faculty at the Centre for Central Eurasian Studies, University of Mumbai, India. He specializes on areas of conflict, peace and terrorism, and strategic dimensions of Central Eurasian politics.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The recent developments in Pakistan\u2019s politics particularly the relations between the civilian government and military, in the background of troubled US-Pakistan relations exacerbated by the November killing of Pakistan soldiers by US drones and killing of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in May, will have far reaching implications not only for Pakistan, but also for Afghanistan, South Asia, and far beyond.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-transcend-members"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16983","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16983"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16983\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16983"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16983"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16983"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}