{"id":178613,"date":"2021-02-08T12:00:47","date_gmt":"2021-02-08T12:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=178613"},"modified":"2021-02-07T03:49:28","modified_gmt":"2021-02-07T03:49:28","slug":"coronavirus-mutations-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2021\/02\/coronavirus-mutations-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Coronavirus Mutations Update"},"content":{"rendered":"
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SARS-CoV-2 N501 mutation lineages. (nextstrain.org)<\/p><\/div>\n

2 Feb 2021 – <\/em>A brief update on the new coronavirus mutations, including the \u2018British\u2019, \u2018South African\u2019 and \u2018Brazilian\u2019 variants (i.e. N501Y.V1-V3), and evidence of their properties:<\/p>\n

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  1. There is currently no evidence<\/a> that new variants are more virulent or lethal<\/strong> or that they produce any different symptoms<\/a>. The fact that covid is generally more severe in winter than in spring and summer was to be expected (e.g. due to much lower vitamin D levels<\/a>).<\/li>\n
  2. There is currently no solid evidence<\/a> that new variants are intrinsically more contagious or infectious<\/strong>, and suspected higher viral loads have already been disproven<\/a>. The fact that transmission is higher in winter than in spring and summer was to be expected.<\/li>\n
  3. In several regions of England<\/strong>, the percentage of the new variant is already decreasing<\/a>.<\/li>\n
  4. There is also currently no evidence<\/a> that new variants preferentially infect children<\/strong>.<\/li>\n
  5. There is no evidence<\/a> that measures such as lockdowns or face masks<\/strong> work any better or any worse against the new variants. Several places affected by new variants have already seen a drop in new infections (e.g. Denmark, Switzerland and the UK itself).<\/li>\n
  6. The fact that ACE2 receptor affinity<\/strong> is higher in new variants does not mean<\/a> that their virulence or infectiousness must be higher; they may as well be lower or unchanged<\/a>.<\/li>\n
  7. The fact that a new variant is partially replacing an older variant<\/strong> does not require higher intrinsic contagiousness or infectiousness. This effect is well known from previous Sars-Cov-2 variants (e.g. D614G<\/a> and the \u2018Spanish variant\u2019<\/a>) and also from seasonal influenza viruses.<\/li>\n
  8. The fact that places with a small first wave are seeing a much stronger second wave<\/strong> (e.g. Portugal<\/a> and Denmark) was to be expected and does not require new variants \u2013 e.g. Ireland, Eastern Europe and Uruguay all saw stronger second waves of the original variant.<\/li>\n
  9. There is, however, clear evidence<\/a> of partial immune evasion<\/strong> of new variants, which is well known from seasonal influenza viruses and from other common coronaviruses, and which may enable reinfections<\/a> \u2013 with or without symptoms \u2013 in some people, and first infections in more people.<\/li>\n
  10. Immune evasion may explain why some places already hit hard in spring, such as South Africa<\/strong> or Manaus<\/strong> in Brazil \u2013 both of which had an antibody seroprevalence of about 30% until summer, but not 70%<\/a> as some claimed \u2013 are seeing a strong second wave mainly driven by<\/a> new variants.<\/li>\n
  11. There is also clear evidence<\/a> that some of the current vaccines<\/strong> are somewhat less protective against the new variants. These vaccines may require regular updates or boosters.<\/li>\n
  12. But there is no evidence<\/a> that early and prophylactic treatment<\/strong> is any less effective against new variants, as it targets virus replication, cell entry, or disease progression.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    See also<\/h4>\n