{"id":182410,"date":"2021-04-12T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-04-12T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=182410"},"modified":"2021-04-06T05:04:50","modified_gmt":"2021-04-06T04:04:50","slug":"some-covid-questions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2021\/04\/some-covid-questions\/","title":{"rendered":"Some Covid Questions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>5 Apr 2021 &#8211; <\/em>Some covid-related reader questions and comments SPR has received in recent weeks that may be of interest to a broader audience.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>\u201cDid Sweden have an antibody seroprevalence of 40% by the end of December?\u201d<\/strong> Sweden had a seroprevalence of <a href=\"https:\/\/swprs.org\/studies-on-covid-19-lethality\/#seroprevalence\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">about 5%<\/a> by the end of April and <a href=\"https:\/\/swprs.org\/covid-19-mortality-overview\/#foobox-2\/0\/countries-immunity-bloomberg.png\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">about 15%<\/a> by the end of December (based on <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/explorers\/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=40..346&amp;pickerSort=asc&amp;pickerMetric=location&amp;Metric=Confirmed+deaths&amp;Interval=Cumulative&amp;Relative+to+Population=true&amp;Align+outbreaks=false&amp;country=~SWE\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">comparative mortality<\/a> data). The values in Stockholm were higher and the national values in young people may also have been higher, but the <a href=\"https:\/\/sebastianrushworth.com\/2021\/01\/25\/heres-a-graph-they-dont-want-you-to-see\/\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">40% value<\/a> was based on non-representative blood donor data.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u201cWas excess mortality in Sweden in 2020 one of the lowest in Europe?\u201d<\/strong> Reports by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cebm.net\/covid-19\/excess-mortality-across-countries-in-2020\/\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Oxford CEBM<\/a> and by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-health-coronavirus-europe-mortality-idUSKBN2BG1R9\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters\/Eurostat<\/a> appeared to show this, but they were based on the 2015-2019 average mortality, which does not take into account the strongly decreasing mortality trend in Sweden (the CEBM acknowledges this issue). If <a href=\"https:\/\/swprs.org\/covid-19-mortality-overview\/#1-sweden\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">calculated correctly<\/a>, Swedish excess mortality in 2020 was close to the European average, as one would expect.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u201cProfessor Ioannidis showed the covid IFR is only 0.15%.\u201d<\/strong> The <a href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/eci.13554\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ioannidis value<\/a> is the <a href=\"https:\/\/swprs.org\/covid-spring-update\/#h-global-covid-lethality-and-mortality\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">lower bound<\/a> of the global average IFR. This value is not applicable to Western countries, not even if nursing homes are excluded (= IFR <a href=\"https:\/\/swprs.org\/covid-spring-update\/#h-global-covid-lethality-and-mortality\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">0.3% to 0.6%<\/a> in most Western countries).<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u201cGermany had a very low excess mortality in 2020 (&lt;5%). Proof there is no pandemic?\u201d<\/strong> German seroprevalence was <a href=\"https:\/\/swprs.org\/covid-19-mortality-overview\/#foobox-2\/0\/countries-immunity-bloomberg.png\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">only 5%<\/a> by December, by far the lowest value among major Western countries. Germany had a very mild first wave and a rather mild second wave, so far.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u201cThe median age of covid deaths is close to life expectancy in most countries. Proof there is no pandemic?\u201d<\/strong> Covid increases natural mortality <a href=\"https:\/\/swprs.org\/why-covid-19-is-a-strange-pandemic\/\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">proportionally per age group<\/a>; overall, mortality is most closely comparable to <a href=\"https:\/\/swprs.org\/covid-versus-the-flu-revisited\/\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">medium influenza pandemics<\/a> of the 20th century (e.g. 1936, 1951, 1957, 1968): lower for children and young adults, but higher for senior citizens.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u201cIsn\u2019t \u2018long covid\u2019 just a vastly exaggerated myth?\u201d <\/strong>According to the latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/healthandsocialcare\/conditionsanddiseases\/bulletins\/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk\/1april2021\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">British ONS survey<\/a>, close to 14% of PCR-confirmed people (hospitalization rate 8%) reported symptoms lasting longer than three months (compared to 2% in the control group), of which about 60% reported \u201csome limitation\u201d and close to 20% \u201cstrong limitation\u201d to their day-to-day activities.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u201cHasn\u2019t the flu been relabeled as covid?\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0 The flu has not been relabeled as covid, but has been <a href=\"https:\/\/swprs.org\/why-the-flu-has-disappeared\/\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">temporarily displaced<\/a> by the novel coronavirus. This effect is well known but poorly understood.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u201cIs early treatment really necessary and effective?\u201d<\/strong> In high-risk patients, early treatment is very important <a href=\"https:\/\/swprs.org\/on-the-treatment-of-covid-19\/\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">and effective<\/a>. Even monoclonal antibodies <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-health-coronavirus-regeneron-pharms-idUSKBN27F2AY\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">failed<\/a> in late treatment, but proved <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-health-coronavirus-lilly-idUSKBN2B21C0\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">very effective<\/a> in early treatment. Early treatment is intended to inhibit viral replication <em>and<\/em> disease progression, most notably autoimmune hyperinflammation and thromboembolism.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u201cAren\u2019t PCR tests just producing a \u2018casedemic\u2019?\u201d<\/strong> PCR tests are highly specific, as data from New Zealand and Australia shows. The problem in high-prevalence countries is <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BBCPanorama\/status\/1376639962649665540\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">lab contamination<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/swprs.org\/the-trouble-with-pcr-tests\/\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">high-CT post-infectious positives<\/a>, which produce a casedemic on top of the pandemic. Overall, there is <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DaFeid\/status\/1369623619647774724\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">no correlation<\/a> between the PCR testing rate and mortality.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u201cWhich are the worst affected regions?\u201d<\/strong> In terms of prevalence and mortality, the <a href=\"https:\/\/swprs.org\/covid-19-mortality-overview\/\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">worst affected region<\/a> is Latin America, followed by Russia and South Africa, the USA and Europe, Arab countries, India and some Asian countries, and finally some low-covid islands and Black Africa. Proactive lockdowns in support of early border controls may have worked in a few countries (most of them islands), but reactive lockdowns had <a href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/cesifo\/advance-article\/doi\/10.1093\/cesifo\/ifab003\/6199605\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">no discernible impact<\/a> on mortality.<\/li>\n<li>\u201c<strong>Did Asian countries have pre-existing immunity?\u201d<\/strong> Infection rates are actually <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/explorers\/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=40..latest&amp;pickerSort=asc&amp;pickerMetric=location&amp;Metric=Confirmed+cases&amp;Interval=7-day+rolling+average&amp;Relative+to+Population=true&amp;Align+outbreaks=false&amp;country=IDN~PHL~PNG~MYS~IND~BGD\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">quite high<\/a> in many Asian countries, including India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, and most recently Papua New Guinea. Only some (quasi) islands, the Mekong countries (Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos), and China managed to keep infection rates <a href=\"https:\/\/swprs.org\/the-zero-covid-countries\/\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">very low<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u201cDid China stage its lockdown to fool the West into self-destruction?\u201d<\/strong> Chinese lockdowns are <a href=\"https:\/\/swprs.org\/lockdowns-in-china-2021\/\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">very real and very extreme<\/a>. Chinese mass PCR data shows that infection prevalence is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1056\/NEJMc2032361\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">very low<\/a> in most regions, but there are still limited new outbreaks in several regions.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>__________________________________________<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/swiss-policy-research-logo-300.png\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-161314\" src=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/swiss-policy-research-logo-300-150x150.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/swiss-policy-research-logo-300-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/swiss-policy-research-logo-300.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/a>Swiss Policy Research<em>, founded in 2016, is an independent, nonpartisan and nonprofit research group investigating geopolitical propaganda in Swiss and international media. SPR is composed of independent academics that<\/em><em> for personal and professional reasons prefer to protect their identities,<\/em><em> and receives no external funding; t<\/em><em>here are no financial sponsors or backers. <\/em><em>Our articles have been published or shared by numerous independent media outlets and journalists, among them <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/swprs.files.wordpress.com\/2018\/01\/assange-tweet.png\" >Julian Assange<\/a>, and have been translated into more than two dozen languages.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/swprs.org\/some-covid-questions\/\" >Go to Original &#8211; swprs.org<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>5 Apr 2021 &#8211; Some covid-related reader questions and comments SPR has received in recent weeks that may be of interest to a broader audience.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":161314,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2236],"tags":[2017,244,271,1879,1829,1868,530,289,744,401,710,1937,2428,2115,1864,2186,1102,723,304,1447,1998,124,1889,2014,1836],"class_list":["post-182410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-covid19-coronavirus","tag-airborne-contagion","tag-china","tag-community","tag-compassion","tag-coronavirus","tag-covid-19","tag-cuba","tag-economy","tag-empathy","tag-environment","tag-health","tag-lockdown","tag-medical-industrial-complex","tag-orthomolecular-medicine","tag-pandemic","tag-pcr-tests","tag-public-health","tag-research","tag-science","tag-science-and-medicine","tag-swiss-policy-research","tag-united-nations","tag-vitamin-c","tag-vitamin-d","tag-who"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/182410","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=182410"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/182410\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/161314"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=182410"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=182410"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=182410"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}