What is motivating Naypyidaw regime to establish ceasefire with the Karen National Union while waging wars against the Kachin Independence Organization – rather than a comprehensive national and ethnic reconciliation with – is the most crucial question that needs to be raised?<\/p>\n
Here is a short list of factors that are at work, according to my friends and colleagues who are on the ground:<\/p>\n
1). local commercial interests organically tied to or a part of the regime (cronies and generals’ and ex-generals’ families) want to secure lion’s share of the spoils during the initial phase of free-marketising the country when there is no effective international competition as yet – because big time Western investors are not yet putting the money on the table for fear of huge initial risks in Burma.<\/p>\n
No one powerful enough from the powerful Ministry of Defense or the omnipotent National Defense and Security Council is involved in any of the ceasefire – only ministers from the line-ministries which are poised to gain commercial shares\/interests (such as railway, electricity, energy, etc) if effective ceasefire holds. Here are some hidden facts: the Thai commercial interests, starting with Thaksin’s Foreign Minister Suriakat (spelling?) have been known to take a keen interest in building an Asia rail link (from Thailand to India through Burma’s Karen-controlled areas). The Tavoy or Dawei Special Economic Zone projects – considered one of the world’s largest construction projects – involving the Italian-Thai Company – is in part located in the Karen-controlled strip of Tenasserim coastal region.<\/p>\n
No wonder then that the financial underwriters of all the ceasefire talks are Burmese businessmen. Of course, local Capital never acts alone.<\/p>\n
Some German foundations which serve as the front groups for German business interests have been active behind the scenes.<\/p>\n
Don’t forget West German companies have, both historically and contemporaneously, had no morals, qualms, or principles about supplying arms and dual-use technical hardware, setting up arms factories, mining, oil exploration, etc. during the half-century of Burma’s dictatorial regimes, starting with Ne Win’s Neanderthal regime in 1962 to Than Shwe’s monk-slaughtering SPDC. The Germans have a head start as they have identified, teamed up and supported Free Market-minded local commercial interests such as Myanmar Egress.<\/p>\n
The German interests may behave rather crass and crude. Tory or Labor, the British, the largest “donor”, are not so far behind their EU rivals either; they have created a network of several dozen strategically placed local proxies using a 3-months program called “Chevening Fellowship” who will do Britain’s bidding in the former colony.<\/p>\n
Former British Ambassador Vicky Bowman in Rangoon is now 2nd in command of External Affairs (international lobby and public relations) at Rio Tinto, the world’s 3rd largest and notorious mining company where the Brits are majority shareholders.<\/p>\n