{"id":185460,"date":"2021-05-24T12:01:27","date_gmt":"2021-05-24T11:01:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=185460"},"modified":"2021-05-21T09:00:23","modified_gmt":"2021-05-21T08:00:23","slug":"covid-the-big-picture-may-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2021\/05\/covid-the-big-picture-may-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"Covid: The Big Picture (May 2021)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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20 May 2021<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\"\"<\/a>
Cumulative covid deaths in Sweden, the EU, and the US (OWD<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The Swedish model in retrospect<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The above chart shows that after more than a year into the pandemic, cumulative confirmed covid mortality in Sweden \u2013 without lockdown, mask mandate, and primary school closures \u2013 is significantly lower<\/a> than the average in both the EU and the US. Within the US, the same applies to Florida<\/a>, especially if adjusted for the mean age of the population. Indeed, a recent cross-country analysis<\/a> found that neither lockdowns nor PCR testing rates had an impact on covid mortality.<\/p>\n

The above chart alone basically invalidates the entire high-cost, low-benefit \u2018Western approach\u2019 to the coronavirus pandemic. For this very reason, those who have promoted this unscientific approach cannot show the big-picture mortality data. Instead, they compare Sweden only to its two neighbors, Norway and Finland, which have the lowest covid mortality<\/a> among all Western non-island countries.<\/p>\n

For this misdirection to work, one must conceal that Norway and Finland have had even softer measures<\/a> than Sweden during most of the pandemic, and one must also conceal the true reason behind the outlier status of Norway and Finland: early border controls<\/a>, opposed by the WHO and most Western \u2018health experts\u2019, for political reasons, until it was too late<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The fact that there are hardly any beneficial intermediate stages between the rather relaxed Swedish model and the extreme (but apparently effective) Chinese model<\/a> very likely has to do with the dominant mode of transmission of Sars-CoV-2: aerosols (see next section).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Covid mortality: The full picture (OWD<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Virus transmission<\/h3>\n

After more than a year since the beginning of the pandemic, the WHO has finally acknowledged<\/a> that aerosols are a primary mode of transmission of Sars-CoV-2. Leading aerosol researcher and professor at the University of Colorado, Jose-Luis Jimenez, argues that aerosol transmission may in fact account for 99%<\/a> of Sars-CoV-2 transmission.<\/p>\n

Aerosols as the dominant mode of transmission may well explain many noteworthy aspects of the covid pandemic, including:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • the predominance of indoor transmission<\/a> (>99%)<\/li>\n
  • the\u00a0futility of face masks<\/a> in the community<\/li>\n
  • the\u00a0futility of \u2018social distancing\u2019<\/a> and hand washing<\/li>\n
  • the futility of \u2018contact tracing\u2019<\/a> (very early phase excluded)<\/li>\n
  • why extreme Chinese measures<\/a> appear to have worked<\/li>\n
  • why in-hospital infections were so widespread<\/a> (up to 30%)<\/li>\n
  • why protecting nursing homes was so difficult<\/a> (50% of deaths)<\/li>\n
  • the seasonality of infections (i.e. dependency on latitude)<\/li>\n
  • viral interference and displacement (why the flu has disappeared<\/a>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Aerosol transmission may also explain \u2013 and many skeptics may not like to hear this \u2013 why pre-symptomatic transmission<\/strong> has played such an important role in driving the covid pandemic: professor Jimenez estimates that 30% to 60% of all transmission<\/a> is from people not (yet) coughing or sneezing, as aerosols are produced already by normal talking, and viral load reaches its peak close to symptom onset. Note that pre-symptomatic transmission has already been known<\/a> from influenza.<\/p>\n

    The importance of aerosol transmission might even explain why a few East Asian countries<\/strong> (e.g. Japan and Vietnam) appear to have experienced a lower transmission rate, comparable to children<\/a> in Western countries: due to genetic or metabolic factors (e.g. much lower obesity rates), they may have had far fewer \u2018super-spreading\u2019 individuals driving major outbreaks.<\/p>\n

    Video<\/strong>: \u201cWe have lost our minds\u201d (Source<\/strong>: Second Opinion<\/a>)<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n