Since the fall of northern Mali to the forces of the Tuareg at the end of March 2012, the situation has grown in complexity.\u00a0 The group of young officers, more or less led by Captain Amadou Sanogo, had taken control of the government buildings of the Central Government in Bamako on 23 March, but they had little idea of what else to do.<\/p>\n
There was an immediate counter-reaction on the part of Western States such as France and the USA who provide most of the financial and technical assistance to Mali. Both France and the USA cut their aid to Mali\u2014 a country currently facing a sever drought and food shortages.\u00a0 Likewise, the 15 states of the Economic Organization of West African States (ECOWAS) called for a speedy return to the civilian government.\u00a0 Captain Sanogo saw the \u201chandwriting on the wall\u201d and agreed to \u00a0turn over the government to the President of the National Assembly who is the constitutional replacement when the President is absent.<\/p>\n
In the meantime, the country is divided into two roughly equal areas \u2014 a north with the Tuareg holding the two major cities of Timbuktu and Gao, and the more populated south whose population provides most of the civil service, the army and the agricultural wealth of the country.<\/p>\n
The Tuareg along with various armed groups probably from Mauritania, south Algeria and fighters who had been recruited for Libya are divided on what strategy to follow.\u00a0 There are two broad options. The largest group, Mouvement national de liberation de l\u2019Azawad(MNLA<\/em>) wants an independent state of northern Mali (and probably part of the Tuareg-inhabited Niger) to be called Azawad.\u00a0 The second faction, called Ansar Dine, is smaller but is more heavily armed and contains the bulk of armed foreigners.\u00a0 Their stated aim is to take control of all of Mali and to install Islamic law.<\/p>\n Both options have difficulties.\u00a0 Northern Mali as an independent state of Azawad has no natural resources, a small population and few educated people to administer a state or to develop any economy beyond that of camel nomadism.\u00a0 In addition, most African states are opposed to carving up existing states or changing frontiers \u2014 a Pandora\u2019s box as many states could be redrawn on ethnic lines and frontiers changed. Thus \u201cterritorial integrity\u201d is an article of faith.<\/p>\n Ansar Dine\u2019s option of an Islamist Mali is also difficult to realize.\u00a0 The Bambara and the Malink\u00e9 are the largest groups in the country and hold economic, military, and political power. Ideologically, they are opposed to the Islamic vision of Ansar Dine, being more Sufi-influenced with a large measure of traditional African beliefs and practices mixed in.(1). Thus the possibility of Ansar Dine gaining support in the south of Mali is slight.\u00a0 However, they may be able with force of arms to impose their views on Timbuktu and Gao but not on the northern countryside.\u00a0 The Tuareg are not Islamist by tradition.\u00a0 Yet in the two cities, the Ansar Dine may be able to force women to cover their hair, prevent the sale of wine and cut the hands of robbers \u2014 these three practices being the extent of their knowledge of Islamic law.<\/p>\n Faced with the difficulties of having a northern Malian state\u2014Azawad\u2014 accepted by the power-holders of Mali and the neighbouring states, there have been some discussions among Tuareg leaders and a former Malian government leader in Nouahchott, Mauritania. There have been no official statements coming from these talks, in part because both north and south Mali are in administrative disorder.\u00a0 No one knows how much authority the persons involved have.\u00a0 For the moment, it is probably at best \u201cTrack II\u201d diplomacy, trying to see what are the aspirations, the limits of the acceptable, and the degree of the willingness to compromise.\u00a0 In the past France and Algeria have mediated disputes between the Tuareg and the central government of Mali. There have been past agreements on autonomy for the Tuareg.\u00a0 However, these agreements have rarely held and more centralized government was slowly restored. I believe that this is due more to the incapacity of the Tuareg to provide trained people to run a decentralized administration than ill will or a desire of control on the part of the central government.<\/p>\n Yet, in the past, a \u201cdeclaration of independence\u201d for northern Mali was never proclaimed.\u00a0 Now that a powerful segment has declared the independence of Azawad, can they go \u201cbackward\u201d and accept greater autonomy within a unified Mali?<\/p>\n Echoes from the current Nouachott talks have spoken of a \u201cFederation of Mali\u201d.\u00a0 The name has already been used.\u00a0 The Mali Federation with Senegal was achieved briefly on the eve of independence and lasted for 506 days from 1 April 1959 until 19 August 1960 when it fell apart during the conflict between the President of Senegal, L.S.Senghor and his Prime Minister Mamadou Dia, largely over the division of authority between the two posts.<\/p>\n Because of the way these events occurred, Mali was deprived of its principle outlet to the sea \u2014Dakar for three years.\u00a0 Attempts to revive federalism between Mali, Guinea, and Ghana, two other states which had also chosen an anti-colonial \u201csocialist\u201d policy, proved futile.(2) Mali, which had been known as Soudan during the French colonial period, took the name Mali on the suggestion of President Senghor of Senegal from the 14th<\/sup> century empire which covered much of what is today Senegal, Mali and part of Niger.(3)<\/p>\n Can a new Mali Federation of the two sections of the current Mali work better than the earlier Federation of Mali?\u00a0 With good will and imagination, federalist structures should be able to be worked out. Yet there are times when good will and imagination are in short supply.<\/p>\n Notes<\/strong><\/p>\n 1)\u00a0See the classic study: Germaine Dieterlen Essai sur le religion Bambara <\/em>(Paris,:Presses Universitaires de France,1951)<\/p>\n 2)\u00a0see: Ruth Schachter Morgenthau. Political Parties in French-speaking West Africa<\/em> (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1964) William J. Foltz. From French West Africa to the Mali Federation <\/em>(New Haven: Yale University Press, 1965)<\/p>\n 3) Raymond Mauny .Tableau g\u00e9ographique de l\u2019ouest africain au moyen age <\/em>(Dakar: IFAN, 1961)<\/p>\n ___________________<\/p>\n Ren\u00e9 Wadlow is Senior Vice President and Chief Representative to the United Nations Office at Geneva of the Association of World Citizens. He is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace, Development and Environment.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Since the fall of northern Mali to the forces of the Tuareg at the end of March 2012, the situation has grown in complexity. Can a new Mali Federation of the two sections of the current Mali work better than the earlier Federation of Mali? With good will and imagination, federalist structures should be able to be worked out. Yet there are times when good will and imagination are in short supply.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18786","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-transcend-members"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18786","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18786"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18786\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18786"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18786"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18786"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}