{"id":216464,"date":"2022-07-11T12:00:04","date_gmt":"2022-07-11T11:00:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=216464"},"modified":"2022-07-11T04:32:36","modified_gmt":"2022-07-11T03:32:36","slug":"chinas-red-lines-on-taiwan-are-clear-regardless-of-the-us-policy-of-strategic-ambiguity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2022\/07\/chinas-red-lines-on-taiwan-are-clear-regardless-of-the-us-policy-of-strategic-ambiguity\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s Red Lines on Taiwan Are Clear Regardless of the US\u2019 Policy of Strategic Ambiguity"},"content":{"rendered":"

10 Jul 2022 – In spite of Biden\u2019s reiteration afterwards of US adherence to the \u201cone China\u201d policy, his apparent gaffe \u2013 the third in nine months \u2013 would seem to signal a burgeoning US policy of \u201cstrategic clarity\u201d, a shift from its decades-old policy of \u201cstrategic ambiguity\u201d. <\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Will the United States come to defend Taiwan militarily in a war across the Taiwan Strait? This million-dollar question so far has two answers from the same administration \u2013 yes, according to US President Joe Biden when he was asked in Tokyo in late May; not necessarily, according to White House aides who quickly walked back his comment and said America\u2019s \u201cone China\u201d policy had not changed.<\/p>\n

This question becomes all the more interesting if one compares Biden\u2019s attitudes towards Moscow and Beijing. Ever since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Biden has consistently said US troops would not directly engage in this conflict.<\/p>\n

If Biden is determined to avoid direct conflict with Russia, why is he so adamant to provoke a potential war with China? The People\u2019s Liberation Army, the largest armed force in the world, would be no less formidable than the Russian military.<\/p>\n

The PLA Navy has three aircraft carriers \u2013 compared with Russia\u2019s one aircraft carrier that has been undergoing repairs for years \u2013 and even more ships than the US Navy. On June 17, China unveiled its third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, a locally designed carrier equipped with an electromagnetic catapult for launching aircraft.<\/p>\n

So, if China is indeed a greater long-term threat than Russia, as the Biden administration has concluded, shouldn\u2019t Washington try to avoid a conflict with China, especially as it would be fought in a faraway battlefield where the US has fewer allies while Beijing has all the advantages of fighting on home turf?<\/p>\n

Perhaps the reason is, unlike Moscow that has threatened Nato with nuclear attacks, Beijing vows it would never be the first to use nuclear weapons in any circumstances.<\/p>\n

If Russia\u2019s nuclear stockpile \u2013 the world\u2019s largest \u2013 had played a decisive role in deterring US involvement, Beijing might have to reconsider its \u201csmall and effective\u201d nuclear arsenal. Theoretically, a no-first-use policy requires a large nuclear arsenal to enable an effective retaliatory second strike after surviving the enemy\u2019s first strike.<\/p>\n

In spite of Biden\u2019s reiteration afterwards of US adherence to the \u201cone China\u201d policy, his apparent gaffe \u2013 the third in nine months \u2013 would seem to signal a burgeoning US policy of \u201cstrategic clarity\u201d, a shift from its decades-old policy of \u201cstrategic ambiguity\u201d.<\/p>\n

Supporters of strategic ambiguity believe such a policy would deter China while not emboldening those in Taiwan who favour independence. Supporters of strategic clarity, however, argue that such vagueness is already inadequate to deter a possible attack by mainland China.<\/p>\n

Notwithstanding China\u2019s determination for reunification and the PLA sending its aircraft to fly near Taiwan as a warning, there is no indication that the mainland is accelerating its plan to take over Taiwan because of the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s 2022 defence budget, announced after the eruption of the conflict, was kept within 2 per cent of GDP, as it has been in recent years. It speaks volumes of China\u2019s assessment of the security environment and its confidence about eventual reunification with Taiwan.<\/p>\n

According to China\u2019s Anti-Secession Law, China would only resort to non-peaceful means in its attempt to reunify with the island under three circumstances: Taiwan has declared independence; a major incident has occurred leading to Taiwan\u2019s secession from China; or, if all the possible avenues for a peaceful reunification have been completely exhausted.<\/p>\n

The probability of the Taiwanese authorities declaring independence is next to impossible, since it would most certainly invite a military response from across the strait. But, in Beijing\u2019s eyes, Washington has tried repeatedly to create \u201cincidents\u201d to impede mainland efforts for peaceful reunification.<\/p>\n

The Pentagon has sent more warships sailing through the Taiwan Strait in recent years \u2013 30 since the start of 2020. Last year, The Wall Street Journal reported that a US special operations unit and a contingent of marines have been secretly operating in Taiwan to train military forces there.<\/p>\n

Beijing has good reason to suspect Washington is only paying lip service to its \u201cone China\u201d pledge. If the competition between China and the US is going to be \u201cextreme\u201d, as Biden described, and if indeed China is \u201cthe only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do it\u201d, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken asserted, won\u2019t the US make use of Taiwan as a convenient pawn in the grand chessboard of the Indo-Pacific\uff1f<\/p>\n

The conflict in Ukraine provides lessons for the PLA. The Russian military\u2019s biggest error has been underestimating its enemy. This was clear in its attacks on multiple fronts without adequate troops, sufficient supplies and logistics support, and a clear line of command.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

Soldiers hold flares as they attend the funeral on Saturday in Kyiv, Ukraine, of activist Roman Ratushnyi, who died fighting for the Ukrainian army against Russian intruders. The Russian military\u2019s biggest mistake has been to underestimate its enemy. Photo: AP<\/strong><\/p>\n

Such mistakes are unlikely to be made by the PLA. The Taiwan Relations Act does not explicitly oblige American forces to come to the island\u2019s defence. But you can be sure the PLA would be prepared for such a fight, involving not just American troops but all its allies in the region.<\/p>\n

In other words, neither America\u2019s strategic ambiguity nor strategic clarity could hold back the PLA\u2019s military build-up. At the recent Shangri-La Dialogue, Chinese defence minister Wei Fenghe vowed to \u201cfight to the very end\u201d to stop Taiwanese secession.<\/p>\n

The Taiwan issue is one of China\u2019s core interests. That means the PLA cannot afford to lose in a war fighting for China\u2019s sovereignty. Once a war starts, a stalemate as we are seeing in Ukraine is highly unlikely, and a ceasefire would be out of the question.<\/p>\n

Biden likes to quote his father in saying the only conflict worse than an intended one is an unintended one. The problem is, in the Taiwan Strait, there won\u2019t be any unintended conflicts.<\/p>\n

_____________________________________________<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Senior Colonel Zhou Bo (ret) is a senior fellow of the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University and a China Forum expert. He was director of Centre for Security Cooperation of the Office for International Military Cooperation of the Ministry of National Defence of China.<\/em><\/p>\n

Go to Original – scheerpost.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10 Jul 2022 – In spite of Biden\u2019s reiteration afterwards of US adherence to the \u201cone China\u201d policy, his apparent gaffe \u2013 the third in nine months \u2013 would seem to signal a burgeoning US policy of \u201cstrategic clarity\u201d, a shift from its decades-old policy of \u201cstrategic ambiguity\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":216467,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[180],"tags":[2197,244,1126,1050,504,109,2064,1148,2200,70],"class_list":["post-216464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-brics","tag-biden","tag-china","tag-hegemony","tag-imperialism","tag-international-relations","tag-politics","tag-south-china-sea","tag-taiwan","tag-us-empire","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216464","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=216464"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216464\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/216467"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=216464"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=216464"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=216464"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}