{"id":216630,"date":"2022-07-18T12:00:05","date_gmt":"2022-07-18T11:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=216630"},"modified":"2022-07-14T05:18:27","modified_gmt":"2022-07-14T04:18:27","slug":"latin-americas-second-wave-of-left-wing-governments-could-be-more-powerful-than-the-first","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2022\/07\/latin-americas-second-wave-of-left-wing-governments-could-be-more-powerful-than-the-first\/","title":{"rendered":"Latin America\u2019s Second Wave of Left-Wing Governments Could Be More Powerful than the First"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote>\n<p class=\"po-hr-cn__dek\"><em>A few years ago, commentators were announcing the demise of the Latin American left. But if Lula wins this autumn\u2019s presidential election in Brazil, the Left will be governing the region\u2019s six largest economies for the first time.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div id=\"attachment_216631\" style=\"width: 410px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/lula-brasil.jpg\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-216631\" class=\"wp-image-216631\" src=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/lula-brasil.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"262\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/lula-brasil.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/lula-brasil-300x196.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/lula-brasil-768x503.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-216631\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Former president of Brazil Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva gestures during a Labor Day demonstration on May 1, 2022, in S\u00e3o Paulo, Brazil. (Rodrigo Paiva \/ Getty Images)<\/p><\/div>\n<p><em>12 Jul 2022 &#8211; <\/em>Until recently, Latin American commentators were widely reporting on the inevitable \u201cebbing\u201d of the pink tide. By the mid-2010s, the commodity boom that began in the early 2000s had rapidly gone into decline. The Right had grasped the opportunity to destabilize its opponents through campaigns of sabotage, propaganda, and scandal, and left-wing governments were facing crises on all fronts.<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-content\" class=\"po-cn wp po-wp\">\n<section id=\"ch-0\" class=\"po-cn__intro po-wp__intro\">Whether through elections (Argentina), \u201cparliamentary coup\u201d (Brazil), \u201csilent coup\u201d (Ecuador), or outright military coup (Bolivia), by the second half of the last decade, the left turn seemed to be giving way to the rise of a new right in the region. For their part, social movements appeared to be in a state of fatigue or, even worse, direct confrontation with left governments, and initially lacked the energy or will to defend them against the right-wing assault.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<aside class=\"pq pq--left\"><em><strong><q>If Lula wins in Brazil, by the end of the year, Latin America\u2019s six largest economies will for the first time all be under left-wing rule of one kind or another.<\/q><\/strong><\/em><\/aside>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>It is no small feat, then, that today there is no better place for thinking about alternatives to neoliberalism and authoritarianism than Latin America. Gustavo Petro\u2019s historic win in Colombia will likely be joined by Lula\u2019s success in Brazil\u2019s October presidential election to conclude a cycle of electoral victories for the Left. By the end of the year, for the first time in its history, Latin America\u2019s six largest economies \u2014 Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru \u2014 should all be under left-wing rule of one kind or another.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"ch-1\" class=\"po-cn__section po-wp__section\">\n<h1 class=\"po-cn__subhead po-wp__subhead\">Gaining New Ground<\/h1>\n<p>The renewal of the pink tide brings with it the prospect of a return to the progressivism and promise of regional integration that accompanied the initial rise of the pink tide two decades ago. But there is also much that is new, both in the socioeconomic context and the character of their political coalitions.<\/p>\n<p>Only two governments that were part of the initial pink tide \u2014 Nicaragua and Venezuela \u2014 remain in power. Other pink tide governments that were previously ousted, like those in Argentina, Bolivia, and potentially Brazil, have returned to power after reconfigurations in their parties and leadership. More significantly, however, several countries that for various reasons had not joined the previous pink tide \u2014 Colombia, Honduras, Mexico, Peru, and Chile \u2014 have all come under left-wing governance, through very different scenarios than those that gave rise to the initial Pink Tide.<\/p>\n<p>These countries had been Washington\u2019s closest allies in the region. All have implemented free-trade agreements with the United States, while Colombia, Peru, and Mexico are key regional nodes in the \u201cwar on drugs.\u201d Colombia has long played the role of US proxy in undermining and destabilizing the Left in the region. The electoral victories of the Left in these countries are remarkable not only for overcoming persecution and violence in the name of anti-communism but also in dealing a further blow to already declining US hegemony in Latin America.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<aside class=\"pq pq--right\"><em><strong><q>The neoliberal hegemony of the 1990s that was first broken by the pink tide governments was never fully restored by their right-wing successors.<\/q><\/strong><\/em><\/aside>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The Left\u2019s success is a clear signal that the neoliberal hegemony of the 1990s that was first broken by the pink tide governments was never fully restored by their right-wing successors. Characterized by low popular support, fragmented ruling coalitions, and lack of an economic agenda, these recent right-wing experiments never achieved the dominance or duration of their predecessors, and their failure opened the way for the Left\u2019s return.<\/p>\n<p>More important, these electoral victories are testimony to the strength of social mobilizations that have swept the region in recent years, even if most of the new left governments did not emerge directly from them. Whereas the right-wing dictatorships of the 1970s and \u201980s wiped out civic, labor, and campesino movements, destroying the Left for at least two decades, the repression unleashed by more recent right-wing governments failed to extinguish the Left.<\/p>\n<p>Even before the pandemic hit in 2019 and continuing through to 2022, thousands upon thousands of people across Latin America have engaged in sustained protests as part of the region-wide\u00a0<em>estallido social<\/em>\u00a0against International Monetary Fund (IMF)\u2013backed austerity policies. In Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and Ecuador, a reconstituted radical movement was able to forge a powerful street presence, weakening neoliberal governments and \u2014 with the exception of Ecuador \u2014 opening the way for progressive governments to come to power.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"ch-2\" class=\"po-cn__section po-wp__section\">\n<h1 class=\"po-cn__subhead po-wp__subhead\">Renewed Social Mobilization<\/h1>\n<p>In Argentina, Bolivia, and Brazil, the Left might have been weakened, yet it nonetheless demonstrated that it had built sufficient power outside the state to withstand the assault from the Right and return left governments to power.<\/p>\n<p>In Bolivia, social movements that had laid the foundations for the Movement for Socialism (MAS)\u2019s initial rise to power in 2006 under Evo Morales were just as crucial in opposing the Jeanine A\u00f1ez government after the 2019 coup. Sustained protests forced A\u00f1ez to eventually hold elections in October 2020 after they had been canceled twice.<\/p>\n<p>The tensions that had arisen under the MAS government did not prevent even its most ardent left critics from mobilizing in support of the MAS under the new leadership of Luis Arce \u2014 as well as rallying in support of the decision to jail A\u00f1ez for her role in the coup. The vice presidential candidate David Choquehuanca, who identifies as Aymara, was able to regain the support of indigenous groups who had previously been frustrated with the MAS, including leaders who had criticized Morales.<\/p>\n<p>In Brazil, ties between the Workers\u2019 Party (PT) and social movements that had been weakened under PT governance were revitalized in the face of the soft coup against Dilma Rousseff and repression from the Jair Bolsonaro government directed against social movements. Lula\u2019s choice of the former conservative governor Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate has not stopped the Landless Workers\u2019 Movement (MST) and other left organizations from supporting his presidential candidacy in the October elections, rejecting other proposals for a broad-based front against Bolsonaro led by a nonleft candidate.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<aside class=\"pq pq--center\"><em><strong><q>The Brazilian PT is still seen as the party where social movements can most effectively push their agendas.<\/q><\/strong><\/em><\/aside>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>This is possible because the PT is still seen as the party where social movements can most effectively push their agendas. The MST has supported the formation of popular committees with the aim of developing an agenda from popular movements to ensure the demands of the working class reach Lula\u2019s presidential agenda.<\/p>\n<p>Only in Ecuador did the frictions between the previous Rafael Correa government and social movements prevent the return of Corre\u00edsmo to power. Andr\u00e9s Arauz ran for president last year as the candidate of the Union for Hope (UNES). UNES was set up as a reconstituted version of Correa\u2019s previous party after his former vice president Len\u00edn Moreno\u2019s betrayal of Correa and the Citizens\u2019 Revolution.<\/p>\n<p>Arauz and UNES continued to enjoy remarkable popularity despite Moreno\u2019s dirty campaign. However, the conservative banker Guillermo Lasso\u2019s victory against Arauz in the 2021 elections was facilitated by long-standing divisions between Ecuador\u2019s powerful indigenous movement and Correa\u2019s Citizens\u2019 Revolution. In the second round of the elections, Pachakutik candidate Yaku\u00a0P\u00e9rez called on supporters to cast a null vote, arguing that neither the extractivism of Corre\u00edsmo nor Lasso\u2019s neoliberalism represented indigenous communities.<\/p>\n<p>The indigenous movement itself was divided on its stance towards Correismo, with Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) president Jaime Vargas dissenting at the last minute to give his support to Arauz. But this did not prevent 1.7 million Ecuadorians from voting blank, ensuring Lasso\u2019s victory. Defenders of the null vote argued that they can bring down Lasso\u2019s government through mass mobilizations, such as those which are currently bringing the country to a standstill.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"ch-3\" class=\"po-cn__section po-wp__section\">\n<h1 class=\"po-cn__subhead po-wp__subhead\">Building New Coalitions<\/h1>\n<p>In countries where the Left has been elected for the first time, parties have adopted a different strategy toward social movements than initial pink tide parties. Whereas in the 1990s and 2000s, explosive revolts brought neoliberal governments to their knees and directly propelled left governments to power, recent left governments have emerged through more gradual processes of coalition-building against the background of social protest and exhaustion of the neoliberal right.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<aside class=\"pq pq--left\"><em><strong><q>Recent left governments have emerged through more gradual processes of coalition-building against the background of social protest and exhaustion of the neoliberal right.<\/q><\/strong><\/em><\/aside>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>In Chile, student protests, teachers\u2019 strikes, indigenous conflicts, and pensioners\u2019 and feminist movements have been building for over a decade. This revitalized left provided the groundwork for sustained social mobilization when the estallido social broke out in 2019. The estallido also created a space for a new alliance between the student movement\u2019s Frente Amplio (FA), the Communist Party, and other movements, leading to the formation of Apruebo Dignidad.<\/p>\n<p>Throughout the 2010s, the FA followed a strategy of building power in state institutions, both national and local. During the 2019 mobilization, the FA spoke out for the protesters, demanding that right-wing president Sebasti\u00e1n Pi\u00f1era lift a state of siege. It brought the issue of human rights violations before the International Criminal Court and sought to impeach Pi\u00f1era on those grounds.<\/p>\n<p>Similarly in Colombia, a decade of mass mobilizations \u2014 including the 2011 and 2018 student protests, the 2013 and 2016 agrarian strikes, and the national strikes of 2019 and 2021 \u2014 precipitated a crisis for right-wing Uribismo. Combined with the signing of the 2016 peace agreement between the Colombian government and the FARC rebel movement, this opened the way for a major shake-up of the political scene.<\/p>\n<p>The country\u2019s new president, Gustavo Petro, was not a protagonist of these mobilizations, and after his two decades in public office many Colombians would see him as part of the political establishment. Nonetheless, it was these mobilizations that made possible the building of Petro\u2019s Pacto Historico political alliance, composed of a variety of movements including the Communist Party, Uni\u00f3n Patriotica, Congreso de los Pueblos, and indigenous and environmental movements.<\/p>\n<p>During his time as mayor of Bogot\u00e1, Petro became the figurehead for popular protests when the attorney general, Alejandro Ordo\u00f1ez, attempted to remove him from office for his attempt to reverse the privatization of the city\u2019s waste disposal. In 2013, Petro led a mass occupation of Bogot\u00e1\u2019s central Plaza Bol\u00edvar, which was renamed \u201cPlaza de los Indignados.\u201d The movement behind Petro brought together an array of groups affected by the hard-right attorney general: feminist pro-choice activists, LGBTQ movements, and the anti-bullfighting campaign.<\/p>\n<p>Although Petro himself was not a leader of the national strikes of 2019 or 2021, his running mate, Francia M\u00e1rquez, an Afro-Colombian environmental and feminist activist and human rights lawyer, spoke out regularly in defense of the human rights of the protesters. In his 2022 election campaign, Petro amplified the demands of the protesters, promising to dismantle the ESMAD riot police, revoke the military service requirement for young men, and transfer the police force to the control of the Ministry of Justice.<\/p>\n<p>In Honduras, Xiomara Castro\u2019s party (Libre) emerged out of the massive grassroots opposition that developed after the coup against Manuel Zelaya in 2009. The National Front of Popular Resistance united women\u2019s, labor, campesino, LGBTQ, and indigenous movements. Over the course of several years, they built a potent street presence, combining mass mobilizations with international pressure on the regime.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"ch-4\" class=\"po-cn__section po-wp__section\">\n<h1 class=\"po-cn__subhead po-wp__subhead\">Economic Storm Clouds<\/h1>\n<p>Another feature distinguishing the renewed pink tide is that it has emerged in a very different economic moment. Latin America was the continent most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. GDP growth might have reached over 6 percent last year, but this was insufficient to compensate for the 6 percent contraction of 2020.<\/p>\n<p>Already in the five years prior to the pandemic, the region had experienced a \u201clost half decade\u201d of low growth. With economic collapse in 2020, modest recovery in 2021, and weak growth forecast in 2022, the region faces another \u201clost decade\u201d of development. Twenty-five million people lost their jobs during the pandemic, and those who have found new employment since then face lower-quality, more precarious work.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<aside class=\"pq pq--right\"><em><strong><q>With economic collapse in 2020, modest recovery in 2021, and weak growth forecast in 2022, Latin America faces another \u2018lost decade\u2019 of development.<\/q><\/strong><\/em><\/aside>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Global commodity prices have risen, but this trend does not offer the same opportunity for Latin American countries as it did in the 2000s. The previous commodities boom was primarily driven by sustained growth from China and other emerging markets, which created a high demand for raw materials. The current price hike has been driven by COVID-induced supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine rather than an economic boom.<\/p>\n<p>With China facing economic difficulties, commodity prices are unlikely to experience prolonged growth, instead becoming more volatile. Any rise in prices will equally be offset by shortages and higher prices for imports. While the previous pink tide had presided over a boom, current left governments are faced with the prospect of presiding over a bust.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"ch-5\" class=\"po-cn__section po-wp__section\">\n<h1 class=\"po-cn__subhead po-wp__subhead\">Forging a New Model<\/h1>\n<p>The US Federal Reserve\u2019s decision to raise interest rates will see investors flee developing economies for \u201csafe havens\u201d like the United States. In response, Latin American central banks are raising their interest rates in the hope of appeasing flighty foreign investors \u2014 but this comes at the cost of workers at home.<\/p>\n<p>Latin America entered the pandemic with high levels of public debt, and from 2019 to 2020 debt levels rose from 69 to 79 percent of GDP. Despite the IMF\u2019s changing rhetoric since the 2008 crisis, in practice, the fund has not backed down on its commitment to austerity. Major battles over the cost-of-living crisis and public spending such as that currently being fought on the streets of Ecuador are likely to spread.<\/p>\n<p>Without the magic bullet of a commodities boom to fund social programs, new left governments will have to start by reducing inequality through structural reforms, with a more redistributive tax system and increased social spending. With the institutions of state power divided under most left presidents, attempts to do so will face conflict. In the course of such battles, governments can build bases of popular support.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<aside class=\"pq pq--center\"><em><strong><q>Without the magic bullet of a commodities boom to fund social programs, new left governments will have to start by reducing inequality through structural reforms.<\/q><\/strong><\/em><\/aside>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Dim economic times can also present opportunities. The end of the commodities boom has reduced the prospects for economic growth but also opens the door for a more radical agenda going beyond the previous pink tide\u2019s economic strategy based on national resource extraction.<\/p>\n<p>Colombia\u2019s Petro and Chile\u2019s Gabriel Boric have promised to put environmentalism at the top of their agendas. Petro has vowed not only to end new oil exploration in Colombia but also to work with other progressive leaders on a regionwide just transition. Boric participated in Our Green America, a movement proposing a blueprint for a post-pandemic Green New Deal, and he has signed the Escazu Agreement on environmental justice.<\/p>\n<p>Although the relationship between these new left governments and social movements is yet to be defined, this fresh direction opens the door to novel alliances with environmental and social movements that had been strained under previous left governments. This in turn creates possibilities for the Left to build power outside the state to push for a more radical agenda under the renewed pink tide.<\/p>\n<p>_______________________________________________<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><em>Kyla Sankey teaches in the School of Business and Management at Queen Mary University of London.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/jacobin.com\/2022\/07\/second-pink-tide-latin-american-left\" >Go to Original &#8211; jacobin.com<\/a><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>12 Jul 2022 &#8211; A few years ago, commentators were announcing the demise of the Latin American left. But if Lula wins this autumn\u2019s presidential election in Brazil, the Left will be governing the region\u2019s six largest economies for the first time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":216631,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1003,547,541,1731,1134,2137],"class_list":["post-216630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latin-america-and-the-caribbean","tag-brasil","tag-brazil","tag-latin-america-caribbean","tag-left-politics","tag-lula-da-silva","tag-south-america"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216630","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=216630"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216630\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/216631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=216630"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=216630"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=216630"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}