{"id":219640,"date":"2022-09-19T12:00:44","date_gmt":"2022-09-19T11:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=219640"},"modified":"2024-09-23T14:36:54","modified_gmt":"2024-09-23T13:36:54","slug":"asias-future-takes-shape-in-vladivostok-the-russian-pacific","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2022\/09\/asias-future-takes-shape-in-vladivostok-the-russian-pacific\/","title":{"rendered":"Asia\u2019s Future Takes Shape in Vladivostok, the Russian Pacific"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p><strong>8 Sep 2022 &#8211; <em>Sixty-eight countries gathered on Russia&#8217;s far eastern coast to listen to Moscow&#8217;s economic and political vision for the Asia-Pacific.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<div id=\"attachment_219641\" style=\"width: 610px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Putin-Vladiviostok-Eastern-Economic-Forum-EEF.jpg\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-219641\" class=\"wp-image-219641\" src=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Putin-Vladiviostok-Eastern-Economic-Forum-EEF-1024x485.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"284\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Putin-Vladiviostok-Eastern-Economic-Forum-EEF-1024x485.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Putin-Vladiviostok-Eastern-Economic-Forum-EEF-300x142.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Putin-Vladiviostok-Eastern-Economic-Forum-EEF-768x363.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Putin-Vladiviostok-Eastern-Economic-Forum-EEF.jpg 1044w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-219641\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Photo Credit: The Cradle<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"article-content  \">\n<p>The <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/forumvostok.ru\/en\/\" >Eastern Economic Forum<\/a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/forumvostok.ru\/en\/\" >\u00a0(EEF)<\/a> in Vladivostok is one of the indispensable annual milestones for keeping up not only with the complex development process of the Russian Far East but major plays for Eurasia integration.<\/p>\n<p>Mirroring an immensely turbulent 2022, the current theme in Vladivostok is \u2018<em>On the Path to a Multipolar World.\u2019<\/em>\u00a0Russian President Vladimir Putin himself, in a short message to business and government participants from 68 nations, set the stage:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>\u201cThe obsolete unipolar model is being replaced by a new world order based on the fundamental principles of justice and equality, as well as the recognition of the right of each state and people to their own sovereign path of development. Powerful political and economic centers are taking shape right here in the Asia-Pacific region, acting as a driving force in this irreversible process.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>In his <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ruptly.tv\/en\/events\/202209070500-LIVE11808-Putin-speaks-at-Eastern-Economic-Forum-s-plenary-session\" >speech to the EEF plenary session<\/a>, Ukraine was barely mentioned. Putin\u2019s response when asked about it: \u201cIs this country part of Asia-Pacific?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The speech was largely structured as a serious message to the collective west, as well as to what top analyst Sergey Karaganov calls the \u201cglobal majority.\u201d Among several takeaways, these may be the most relevant:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Russia as a sovereign state will defend its interests.<\/li>\n<li>Western sanctions \u2018fever\u2019 is threatening the world \u2013 and economic crises are not going away after the pandemic.<\/li>\n<li>The entire system of international relations has changed. There is an attempt to maintain world order by changing the rules.<\/li>\n<li>Sanctions on Russia are closing down businesses in Europe. Russia is coping with economic and tech aggression from the west.<\/li>\n<li>Inflation is breaking records in developed countries. Russia is looking at around 12 percent.<\/li>\n<li>Russia has played its part in grain exports leaving Ukraine, but most shipments went to EU nations and not developing countries.<\/li>\n<li>The \u201cwelfare of the \u2018Golden Billion\u2019 is being ignored.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>The west is in no position to dictate energy prices to Russia.<\/li>\n<li>Ruble and yuan will be used for gas payments.<\/li>\n<li>The role of Asia-Pacific has significantly increased.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In a nutshell: Asia is the new epicenter of technological progress and productivity.<\/p>\n<p><strong>No more an \u2018object of colonization\u2019<\/strong><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Taking place only two weeks before another essential annual gathering \u2013 the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/eng.sectsco.org\/\" >Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) <\/a>summit in Samarkand \u2013 it is no wonder some of the top discussions at the EEF revolve around the increasing economic interpolation between the SCO and the\u00a0Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).<\/p>\n<p>This theme is as crucial as the development of the Russian Arctic: at 41 percent of total territory, that\u2019s the largest resource base in the federation, spread out over nine regions, and encompassing the largest Special Economic Zone (SEZ) on the planet, linked to the free port of Vladivostok. The Arctic is being developed via several strategically important projects processing mineral, energy, water and biological natural resources.<\/p>\n<p>So it\u2019s perfectly fitting that Austria\u2019s former foreign minister Karin Kneissel, self-described as \u201ca passionate historian,\u201d quipped about her fascination at how Russia and its Asian partners are tackling the development of the Northern Sea Route: \u201cOne of my favorite expressions is that airlines and pipelines are moving east. And I keep saying this for twenty years.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Amidst <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/forumvostok.ru\/en\/programme\/business-programme\/?day=06.09.2022\" >a wealth of roundtables<\/a> exploring everything from the power of territory, supply chains and global education to \u201cthe three whales\u201d (science, nature, human), arguably the top discussion this Tuesday at the forum was centered on the role of the SCO.<\/p>\n<p>Apart from the current full members \u2013 Russia, China, India, Pakistan, four Central Asians (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan), plus the recent accession of Iran \u2013 no less than 11 further nations want to join, from observer Afghanistan to dialogue partner Turkey.<\/p>\n<p>Grigory Logvinov, the SCO\u2019s deputy secretary general, stressed how the economic, political and scientific potential of players comprising \u201cthe center of gravity\u201d for Asia \u2013 over a quarter of the world\u2019s GDP, 50 percent of the world\u2019s population \u2013 has not been fully harvested yet.<\/p>\n<p>Kirill Barsky, from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, explained how the SCO is actually the model of multipolarity, according to its charter, compared to the backdrop of \u201cdestructive processes\u201d launched by the west.<\/p>\n<p>And that leads to the economic agenda in the Eurasian integration progress, with the Russian-led Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) configured as the SCO\u2019s most important partner.<\/p>\n<p>Barsky identifies the SCO as \u201cthe core Eurasian structure, forming the agenda of Greater Eurasia within a network of partnership organizations.\u201d That\u2019s where the importance of the cooperation with ASEAN comes in.<\/p>\n<p>Barsky could not but evoke Mackinder, Spykman and Brzezinski \u2013 who regarded Eurasia \u201cas an object to be acted upon the wishes of western states, confined within the continent, away from the ocean shores, so the western world could dominate in a global confrontation of land and sea. The SCO as it developed can triumph over these negative concepts.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>And here we hit a notion widely shared from Tehran to Vladivostok:<\/p>\n<p>Eurasia no longer as \u201can object of colonization by \u2018civilized Europe\u2019 but again an agent of global policy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u2018India wants a 21<sup>st<\/sup> Asian century\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Sun Zuangnzhi from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) elaborated on China\u2019s interest in the SCO. He focused on\u00a0achievements: In the 21 years since its founding, a mechanism to establish security between China, Russia and Central Asian states evolved into \u201cmulti-tiered, multi-sector cooperation mechanisms.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Instead of \u201cturning into a political instrument,\u201d the SCO should capitalize on its role of dialogue forum for states with a difficult history of conflicts \u2013 \u201cinteractions are sometimes difficult\u201d \u2013 and focus on economic cooperation \u201con health, energy, food security, reduction of poverty.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Rashid Alimov, a former SCO secretary general, now a professor at the Taihe Institute, stressed the \u201chigh expectations\u201d from Central Asian nations, the core of the organization. The original idea remains \u2013\u00a0based on the indivisibility of security on a trans-regional level in Eurasia.<\/p>\n<p>Well, we all know how the US and NATO reacted when Russia late last year proposed a serious dialogue on \u201cindivisibility of security.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As Central Asia does not have an outlet to the sea, it is inevitable, as Alimov stressed, that Uzbekistan\u2019s foreign policy privileges involvement in accelerated intra-SCO trade. Russia and China may be the leading investors, and now \u201cIran also plays an important role. Over 1,200 Iranian companies are working in Central Asia.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Connectivity, once again, must increase: \u201cThe World Bank rates Central Asia as one of the least connected economies in the world.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Sergey Storchak of Russian bank VEB explained the workings of the \u201cSCO interbank consortium.\u201d Partners have used \u201ca credit line from the Bank of China\u201d and want to sign a deal with Uzbekistan. The SCO interbank consortium will be led by the Indians on a rotation basis \u2013 and they want to step up its game. At the upcoming summit in Samarkand, Storchak expects a road map for the transition towards the use of national currencies in regional trade.<\/p>\n<p>Kumar Rajan from the School of International Studies of the Jawaharlal Nehru University articulated the Indian position. He went straight to the point: \u201cIndia wants a 21<sup>st<\/sup> Asian century. Close cooperation between India and China is necessary. They can make the Asian century happen.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Rajan remarked how India does not see the SCO as an alliance, but committed to the development and political stability of Eurasia.<\/p>\n<p>He made the crucial point about connectivity revolving around India \u201cworking with Russia and Central Asia with the INSTC\u201d \u2013 the International North South Transportation Corridor, and one of its key hubs, the Chabahar port in Iran: \u201cIndia does not have direct physical connectivity with Central Asia. The INSTC has the participation of an Iranian shipping line with 300 vessels, connecting to Mumbai. President Putin, in the [recent] Caspian meeting, referred directly to the INSTC.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Crucially, India not only supports the Russian concept of Greater Eurasia Partnership but is engaged in setting up a free trade agreement with the EAEU: Prime Minister Narendra Modi, incidentally, came to the Vladivostok forum last year.<\/p>\n<p>In all of the above nuanced interventions, some themes are constant. After the Afghanistan disaster and the end of the US occupation there, the stabilizing role of the SCO cannot be overstated enough. An ambitious road map for cooperation is a must \u2013 probably to be approved at the Samarkand summit. All players will be gradually changing to trade in bilateral currencies. And creation of transit corridors is leading to the progressive integration of national transit systems.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Let there be light<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A key roundtable on the \u2018Gateway to a Multipolar World\u2019 expanded on the SCO role, outlining how most Asian nations are \u201cfriendly\u201d or \u201cbenevolently neutral\u201d when it comes to Russia after the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>So the possibilities for expanding cooperation across Eurasia remain practically unlimited. Complementarity of economies is the main factor. That would lead, among other developments, to the Russian Far East, as a multipolar hub, turning into \u201cRussia\u2019s gateway to Asia\u201d by the 2030s.<\/p>\n<p>Wang Wen from the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies stressed the need for Russia to rediscover China \u2013 finding \u201cmutual trust in the middle level and elites level\u201d. At the same time, there\u2019s a sort of global rush to join BRICS, from Saudi Arabia and Iran to Afghanistan and Argentina:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cThat means a new civilization model for emerging economies like China and Argentina because they want to rise up peacefully (\u2026) I think we are in the new civilization age.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>B. K. Sharma from the United Service Institution of India got back to Spykman pigeonholing the nation as a rimland state. Not anymore: India now has multiple strategies, from connecting to Central Asia to the \u2018Act East\u2019 policy. Overall, it\u2019s an outreach to Eurasia, as India \u201cis not competitive and needs to diversify to get better access to Eurasia, with logistical help from Russia.\u201c<\/p>\n<p>Sharma stresses how India takes SCO, BRICS and RICs very seriously while seeing Russia playing \u201can important role in the Indian Ocean.\u201d He nuances the Indo-Pacific outlook: India does not want Quad as a military alliance, privileging instead \u201cinterdependence and complementarity between India, Russia and China.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>All of these discussions interconnect with the two overarching themes in several Vladivostok roundtables: energy and the development of the Arctic\u2019s natural resources.<\/p>\n<p>Pavel Sorokin, Russian First Deputy Minister of Energy, dismissed the notion of a storm or typhoon in the energy markets: \u201cIt\u2019s a far cry from a natural process. It\u2019s a man-made situation.\u201d The Russian economy, in contrast, is seen by most analysts as slowly but surely designing its Arctic\/Asian cooperation future \u2013 including, for instance, the creation of a sophisticated trans-shipment infrastructure for Liquified Natural Gas (LNG).<\/p>\n<p>Energy Minister Nikolay Shulginov made sure that Russia will actually increase its gas production, considering the rise of LNG deliveries and the construction of Power of Siberia-2 to China: \u201cWe will not merely scale up the pipeline capacity but we will also expand LNG production: it has mobility and excellent purchases on the global market.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>On the Northern Sea Route, the emphasis is on building a powerful, modern icebreaker fleet \u2013 including nuclear. Gadzhimagomed\u00a0Guseynov, First Deputy Minister for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, is adamant: \u201cWhat Russia has to do is to make the Northern Sea Route a sustainable and important transit route.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>There is a long-term plan up to 2035 to create infrastructure for safe shipping navigation, following an \u2018Arctic best practices\u2019 of learning step by step. NOVATEK, according to its deputy chairman Evgeniy Ambrosov, has been conducting no less than a revolution in terms of Arctic navigation and shipbuilding in the last few years.<\/p>\n<p>Kniessel, the former Austrian minister, recalled that she always missed the larger geopolitical picture in her discussions when she was active in European politics (she now lives in Lebanon): \u201cI wrote about the passing of the torch from Atlanticism to the Pacific.\u00a0Airlines, pipelines and waterways are moving East. The Far East is actually Pacific Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Whatever Atlanticists may think of it, the last word for the moment might belong to Vitaly Markelov, from the board of directors of Gazprom: Russia is ready for winter. There will be warmth and light everywhere.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><em>_______________________________________________<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/pepe-escobar-1.jpeg\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-205220\" src=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/pepe-escobar-1-150x150.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a> Pepe Escobar, born in Brazil, is a correspondent and editor-at-large at <\/em>Asia Times <em>and<\/em> <em>columnist for<\/em> Consortium News <em>and<\/em> Strategic Culture<em> in Moscow. Since the mid-1980s he\u2019s lived and worked as a foreign correspondent in London, Paris, Milan, Los Angeles, Singapore, and Bangkok. He has extensively covered Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia to China, Iran, Iraq and the wider Middle East. He is the author of <\/em><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/thesaker.is\/hybrid-war-hyenas-tearing-brazil-apart-pepe-escobar\/www.amazon.com\/Globalistan-Globalized-World-Dissolving-Liquid\/dp\/0978813820\/\" >Globalistan<\/a><em> (2007),<\/em> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Red-Zone-Blues-snapshot-Baghdad\/dp\/0978813898\" >Red Zone Blues<\/a><em> (2007), <\/em><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/thesaker.is\/hybrid-war-hyenas-tearing-brazil-apart-pepe-escobar\/www.amazon.com\/Obama-Does-Globalistan-Pepe-Escobar\/dp\/1934840831\" >Obama Does Globalistan<\/a><em> (2009), <\/em><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Empire-Chaos-Pepe-Escobar\/dp\/1608881644\" >Empire of Chaos<\/a><em> (2014) and <\/em><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/thesaker.is\/hybrid-war-hyenas-tearing-brazil-apart-pepe-escobar\/www.amazon.com\/2030-Pepe-Escobar\/dp\/1608880354\/\" >2030<\/a><em> (2015), all by Nimble Books. Pepe was contributing editor to <\/em>The Empire and The Crescent <em>and<\/em> Tutto in Vendita <em>in Italy and is also associated with the Paris-based European Academy of Geopolitics. When not on the road he lives between Paris and Bangkok. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/thecradle.co\/Article\/Columns\/15396\" >Go to Original \u2013 thecradle.co<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>8 Sep 2022 &#8211; Sixty-eight countries gathered on Russia&#8217;s far eastern coast to listen to Moscow&#8217;s economic and political vision for the Asia-Pacific.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":219641,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[180],"tags":[1149,1037,239,94,244,1061,532,405,2926,1035,354,1014,433,562,435,759,645,91,613,2433,278,953],"class_list":["post-219640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-brics","tag-asia-and-the-pacific","tag-belt-road","tag-brics","tag-central-asia","tag-china","tag-cold-war-ii","tag-colonialism","tag-colonization","tag-eastern-economic-forum","tag-eastern-europe","tag-economics","tag-energy","tag-europe","tag-finance","tag-free-trade","tag-india","tag-international-trade","tag-nato","tag-new-world-order","tag-peacebuilding","tag-russia","tag-south-asia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219640","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=219640"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219640\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":274891,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219640\/revisions\/274891"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/219641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=219640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=219640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=219640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}