{"id":222008,"date":"2022-10-17T12:00:36","date_gmt":"2022-10-17T11:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=222008"},"modified":"2022-10-15T05:21:02","modified_gmt":"2022-10-15T04:21:02","slug":"pipelines-v-usa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2022\/10\/pipelines-v-usa\/","title":{"rendered":"Pipelines v. USA"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Intent, motive and means: People serving life sentences in U.S. prisons have been convicted on weaker grounds than the circumstantial evidence against Washington for the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines.<\/em><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n
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Seafox special warfare patrol craft practicing in 1986.
(U.S. National Archives)<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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12 Oct 2022 – <\/em>Circumstantial evidence, just like direct proof, can be used to prove the elements of a crime, the existence or completion of certain acts and the intent or mental state of a defendant. Generally speaking, a prosecutor, to obtain a conviction, needs to show beyond a reasonable doubt that a defendant committed a certain act and that the defendant acted with specific intent.Nord Stream 1<\/a> is a multi-national project operated by Swiss-based Nord Stream AG intended to supply some 55 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Russian natural gas annually to Europe by directly transporting it from Russia, through twin 1,224 kilometer-long pipelines laid beneath the Baltic Sea, to a German hub, from which the gas would be distributed to other European consumers.<\/p>\n

The first of the twin pipelines was completed in June 2011 and began supplying gas in November 2011. The second was completed in April 2012 and began supplying gas in October 2012. Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, owns 51 percent interest in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline project.<\/p>\n

Nord Stream 2<\/a> is a near clone of the Nord Stream 1 project, consisting of twin 1,220-kilometer pipelines laid beneath the Baltic Sea connecting Russia to Germany. Started in 2018, it was completed in September 2021. Like Nord Stream 1, the Nord Stream 2 is designed to deliver approximately 55 bcm of natural gas from Russia to Europe through Germany. Nord Stream 2, like Nord Stream 1, is operated by a multinational company in which Gazprom has 51 percent ownership.<\/p>\n

Unlike Nord Stream 1, Nord Stream 2 was never allowed to begin supplying gas.<\/p>\n

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Nord Stream 2 area map. (Berria Egunkaria, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

The Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines are anathema to U.S. national security policy, which for decades has been sour on the degree to which Russian natural gas dominates the European energy market. This animus was perhaps best captured by a column published in the German newspaper <\/a>DieWelt<\/em><\/a> in July 2019.<\/p>\n

The piece, co-authored by Richard Grenell, Carla Sands, Gordon Sondland (respectively, the U.S. ambassadors to Germany, Denmark and the European Union), was entitled \u201cEurope must retain control of its energy security\u201d and made the argument that the \u201cNord Stream 2 pipeline will drastically increase Russia\u2019s energy leverage over the EU,\u201d noting that \u201c[s]uch a scenario is dangerous for the bloc and the West as a whole.\u201d<\/p>\n

Observing that \u201ca dozen European countries rely on Russia for more than 75 percent of their natural gas needs,\u201d the ambassadors concluded \u201cThis makes United States allies and partners vulnerable to having their gas shut off at Moscow\u2019s whim.\u201d<\/p>\n

Moreover, the ambassadors claimed,<\/p>\n

\u201cEuropean Union reliance on Russian gas presents risks for Europe and the West as a whole and makes U.S. allies less secure. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline will heighten Europe\u2019s susceptibility to Russia\u2019s energy blackmail tactics. Europe must retain control of its energy security.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The ambassadors also wove in some critical geopolitical context as well, declaring<\/p>\n

\u201cMake no mistake: Nord Stream 2 will bring more than just Russian gas. Russian leverage and influence will also flow under the Baltic Sea and into Europe, and the pipeline will enable Moscow to further undermine Ukrainian sovereignty and stability.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Russia\u2019s \u201cweaponization\u201d of energy against Europe was the topic of a \u201cdebate\u201d that Gary Peach and I carried out in December 2018<\/a> on the pages of Energy Intelligence<\/em>, which monitors issues pertaining to global energy security. Gary, one of EI<\/em>\u2019s senior writers, covers Russian energy.<\/p>\n

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Gazprom headquarters in the Lakhta Center skyscraper in Saint Petersburg, Russia, February 2021. <\/strong> (CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

I argued that \u201cRussia has never sought to use its status as a major supplier of energy to Europe as a vehicle of policy influence,\u201d noting that:<\/p>\n

\u201c[t]he weaponization of Russian energy comes in the form of sanctions imposed against Moscow and the pursuit of policies designed to curtail development of Russia\u2019s energy sector. It is far easier to make a case that the U.S. and Europe pose a threat to Russian energy security rather than vice versa.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Gary, on the other hand, noted that<\/p>\n

\u201cGazprom\u2019s supply contracts exhibit the underlying economic threat from Moscow: The pricing formula is roughly the same for all countries, but those countries in Russia\u2019s good graces receive an arbitrary \u2018discount.\u2019\u201d He concluded that \u201cwhen Gazprom is the only conceivable gas supplier, it has shamelessly abused the monopoly.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In December 2019 the administration of President Donald Trump imposed sanctions<\/a> in a desperate last-second bid to prevent the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from being completed.<\/p>\n

These sanctions were waived<\/a> by the administration of President Joe Biden in May 2021 in an effort to be seen as repairing relations with Germany that had been severely frayed during the Trump administration. However, upon completion, Nord Stream 2 was prevented from operating by objections raised by German regulators<\/a> regarding licensing issues, which were not expected to be resolved until mid-2022.<\/p>\n

In the lead up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration devised a plan to punish Russia<\/a> by imposing severe economic sanctions which would target the Russian energy sector, including measures designed to halt the delivery of gas from Russia to Germany via the Nord Stream pipelines.<\/p>\n

One of the issues confronting U.S. policy makers was finding the right mix of sanctions that would succeed in harming Russia without destroying the European economy in the process. Policy makers on both sides of the Atlantic, however, recognized that meaningful sanctions which targeted Russian energy contained collateral risk to the European economy which could not be avoided.<\/p>\n

One of the mechanisms that U.S. and E.U. policy makers were hoping would alleviate the economic consequences of sanctioning Russian energy was to increase the supply of U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG) to Europe. Since 2016 the amount of LNG supplied by the U.S. to Europe<\/a> has increased, with more than 21 bcm delivered in 2021.<\/p>\n

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Deck of the LNG tanker Energy Atlantic in Port Arthur, Texas, 2016. <\/strong><\/p>\n

(U.S. Coast Guard, Dustin R. Williams)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

But 21 bcm couldn\u2019t begin to offset the quantity of natural gas being shipped by Russia to Europe in case of any large-scale disruption of Russian energy supplies brought on by the imposition of economic sanctions that targeted the Russian energy sector.<\/p>\n

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine \u2014 and the realization that the energy disruption to Europe was going to be far greater than had been anticipated \u2014 Biden made good on his promise to increase the supply of U.S. LNG<\/a> to Europe. But the quantities still fell far short of demand, and at prices that were, literally, bankrupting all of Europe.<\/p>\n

The Victims<\/strong><\/p>\n

With Germany blocking the operation of Nord Stream 2 and sanctions precluding the repair of the Nord Stream 1, the German population began bearing the brunt of the sanctions on Russian energy.<\/p>\n

Despite their government\u2019s insistence that it would remain resolute in confronting what it perceived as Russian aggression against Ukraine, the German people had other plans. By Sept. 26 they began taking to the streets<\/a> in large numbers to demand that their government open the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and provide the German people and economy with the energy needed to survive.<\/p>\n

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Germany's largest protests of this fall<\/p>\n

The footage shows Berlin and Hannover.<\/p>\n

The participants are demanding the lifting of anti-Russian sanctions and access to energy. One of the posters reads "I want Russian gas and oil." pic.twitter.com\/Rl7UJQ6dSb<\/a><\/p>\n

— \u2626\ufe0fJacob\ud83c\uddf7\ud83c\uddfaCharite\u2626\ufe0f \u0418\u0430\u0433\u043e\u0432 (@jaccocharite) October 8, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n