{"id":230244,"date":"2023-02-27T12:01:02","date_gmt":"2023-02-27T12:01:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=230244"},"modified":"2023-02-24T05:07:47","modified_gmt":"2023-02-24T05:07:47","slug":"ukraine-1-year-of-war-on-top-of-30-years-of-conflict-escalation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2023\/02\/ukraine-1-year-of-war-on-top-of-30-years-of-conflict-escalation\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine: 1 Year of War on Top of 30 Years of Conflict Escalation"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Only Re-Armament Needed Is Intellectual and Moral \u2013 on All Sides<\/strong> <\/em><\/p>\n

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Beyond Russia, NATO\/EU policies will prove morally wrong, unrealistic, dangerous and self-destructive.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Introduction: 1 year of violence on top of 30 years of conflict: Too much wrong thinking<\/strong><\/h3>\n

23 Feb 2023 –<\/em> The world\u2019s focus is on the war<\/em>. On February 24, it is one year since Russia launched its so-called special military operation. Much more important is to focus on the underlying conflicts<\/em> \u2013 because there exists no war or other violence without root causes.<\/p>\n

The focus on war, by definition, won\u2019t lead to a solution or wider, sustainable peace \u2013 like feeling the pain in a patient without diagnosing where it comes from can never lead to healing.<\/p>\n

Unless you ask: What is the problem<\/em>, the conflict, that stands<\/em> between the conflicting parties \u2013 NATO and Russia \u2013 it will end with escalation until one of the sides feel that the nuclear button is the only way out.<\/p>\n

International politics is still so immature that the simple distinction between the violence<\/em> and the conflict<\/em> seem too intellectually demanding for the decision-makers, the media and most researchers.<\/p>\n

However, understanding it would help save humanity\u2019s future.<\/p>\n

But the Military-Industrial-Media-Academic Complex, MIMAC,<\/a> of course, thrives on the focus on war, weapons and ever more \u2013 blind \u2013 militarist thinking.<\/p>\n

The conflict<\/em> is about 30 years old, and the war<\/em> is one year.<\/p>\n

Whatever the reader may think about Putin, Russia, the invasion, Ukraine etc., the infantile blaming, demonisation and the projection of all guilt on one side in such a complex, multi-party and history-based conflict should stop. It\u2019s emotionalist and stands in the way of rational and prudent policy-making.<\/p>\n

Moreover, it is dangerous in its consequences. Therefore, it\u2019s time for the West \u2013 US\/NATO and the EU \u2013 to do some soul-searching and stop living in denial about its complicity in the conflict and this terrible war.<\/p>\n

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The overarching fallacy is to think and believe that because Russia did something wrong, everything NATO\/EU did and do is right.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Contrary to good academic practice and my other writings, this article merely states points and conclusions, while my arguments can be found in the 200-300 pages of analyses I have written since 2014. Much of it can be found here<\/a> and here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I focus here on NATO\/EU policies and why they are wrong and won\u2019t succeed; that does not<\/em> mean that I find Russia\u2019s policies right and successful. But before you accuse others, take a look at yourself. The day after the invasion, I distanced myself from it<\/a> and also made six \u2013 correct, as it turned out \u2013 predictions.<\/p>\n

The basic psycho-political elements of the West\u2019s policy vis-a-vis Russia<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The building blocks of the West\u2019s \u2013 NATO\/EU \u2013 policies vis-a-vis Russia can be characterised by the following psycho-political concepts:<\/p>\n

Immaturity and banalisation<\/em><\/strong> \u2013 in blaming everything on Russia in general and Putin in particular (it can be said that Putin also blames everything on the West, but that won\u2019t help the EU and NATO \u2013 just make \u2018us\u2019 as stupid as \u2018we\u2019 think he is).<\/p>\n

Psycho-political projections<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 what Russia does, NATO\/EU countries have done themselves and in some respects much worse; and Putin is hysteric when he feels threatened by us, whereas we are justified \u2013 always were \u2013 that Russia is a huge threat and that Ukraine is only the first of a series of future aggressions. In other words, comparative<\/em> studies and media mention of NATO countries\u2019 aggression and violations of international law are prohibited.<\/p>\n

Just one example: President Joe Biden, the leader of today\u2019s only global empire with over 600 bases in more than 130 countries and the most war-fighting and mass-killing country since 1945, stated on February 24, 2022, that \u201cThis was \u2026 always about naked aggression, about Putin\u2019s desire for empire by any means necessary.\u201d<\/p>\n

Untruthful innocence<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 NATO, by constitution, never did and doesn\u2019t do anything wrong; it is innocent. NATO\u2019s S-G Stoltenberg has repeatedly stated that \u2018NATO is not a party to the conflict\u2019 (but also, inconsequently, that Putin must not win because, then, \u2018we\u2019 shall have lost). The homepages of NATO and the EU state untruthfully that the extremely well-documented promises made to Gorbachev about not expanding NATO \u2018one inch\u2019 were never given.<\/p>\n

The same untruthful innocence produces the lie that it all began with Russia\u2019s annexation of Crimea or the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and that it was \u2018unprovoked.\u2019 The word reveals with abundant clarity that NATO knows it behaved in a provocative way. The only relevant history is the history of the conflict \u2013 which began at the end of the First Cold War in 1989-90. The rest is make-believe, opportunistic ignorance and pure propaganda.<\/p>\n

An example of symbol politics and \u201csending messages\u201d<\/p>\n

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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech during a debate on \u2018The State of the European Union\u2019 at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, 14 September 2022. EPA\/CHRISTOPHE PETIT TESSON<\/p>\n

Groupthink<\/em><\/strong> \u2013 which implies that a group of elite decision-makers constantly and over time confirm each other in being fundamentally right and cannot be on the wrong track; they meet (latest in Munich) and confirm each other; their ministries, presumed analytical institutions and think tanks as well as the mainstream media hardly ever raise questions or criticise; every interpretation and information not identical with this groupthink is repelled, the world is interpreted selectively to fit the group\u2019s worldview \u2013 and eventually, it is totally convinced that it cannot be wrong and that it\u2019s decisions are smart and productive and will lead to the goal.<\/p>\n

In this case, the US\/NATO stated goal is to weaken Russia militarily and damage its economy to such an extent that it can never do such a thing again \u2013 a punishment for what it has done. Groupthink is dangerous because it defies reality checks, leads to hubris, to fatally wrong decisions, and invariably ends up as lemmings running to doom.<\/p>\n

Hubris<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 or arrogance: In reality, \u2018we\u2019 are omnipotent. As former NATO S-G, Anders Fogh-Rasmussen has stated: Putin knows that \u201cNATO spends ten times more on the military than he does and that we can beat the crap out of him.\u201d Yet, paradoxically, no Western leader seems to be even thinking of aligning the idea that NATO shall win this war with NATO\u2019s consistent propaganda to its citizens that Russia was a formidable threat which NATO had to defend itself against.<\/p>\n

That was done by NATO having actually 12 times higher military expenditures before the war the war anyhow happened, and its \u2018deterrence\u2019 failed. And NATO has moved into the largest-ever re-armament to \u2018defend\u2019 with goals like 2-4% of the GNP spent\/wasted on \u2018warfare planning, \u2018security\u2019 and \u2018defence.\u2019 (As if that was a serious way to determine thow to meet perceived threats).<\/p>\n

Militarism<\/em><\/strong> \u2013 every\u2019 solution\u2019 mentioned is about military actions. We shall win on the battlefield. Nobody in NATO\/EU circles knows how to pronounce words such as peace, conflict-resolution, mediation, peacemaking, peace-keeping, reconciliation, dialogue, talks\u2026<\/p>\n

Of course, it is implicitly understood that President Putin is at such a low intellectual and moral level that the only thing he understands is that we \u2013 the bigger boys in the schoolyard \u2013 beat that crap out of him.<\/p>\n

Sadly, the only thing that today keeps the Western world together is militarism, winning over Russia together<\/em>. No other or more positive cause has had the same solidifying function. Militarism has become a religion, NATO its church \u2013 and only infidels question that faith and God\u2019s existence. And they know that God is always on\u2019 our\u2019 side.<\/p>\n

With warfare, people come together and, in enigmatic ways, their lives may acquire a new meaning that replaces a sense of meaninglessness, and fills an existential void.<\/p>\n

Omnipotence<\/em><\/strong> \u2013 the EU\/NATO world has no sense of limitations. It can fight economic crises, recover after the Corona years, handle refugees, solve climate change, alleviate poverty \u2013 you name it \u2013 and it can re-arm for billions upon billions of dollars. It \u2013 the US in particular \u2013 can wage a Cold War on everything China \u2013 an industry of non-documented accusations \u2013 and it can print any amount of greenbacks and repay debts, fix all the infrastructure and other problems of the US society, compete and win in the fields of advanced technology.<\/p>\n

The EU \u2013 which hasn\u2019t gotten its acts together and built a modern transport infrastructure based on an all-Europe high-speed train network \u2013 believes it can always do that later.<\/p>\n

All these countries can install sanctions ad libitum \u2013 the disease I call \u2018sanctionitis\u2019<\/em> \u2013 believing that they will not be hurt themselves by them. And we shall, of course, re-build Ukraine after we have contributed to destroying it, now it has fought so nobly for \u2018our\u2019 values.<\/p>\n

We are second to none, and we can do everything simultaneously. No need to prioritise. Significantly, all decisions are made knee-jerk: <\/em>Sanctions, cancelling of Russia in all other fields, Finland\u2019s and Sweden\u2019s NATO member decisions without analyses of the short, mid-and long-term consequences.<\/p>\n

All major decision-makers will be retired or dead, leaving it our children and grandchildren to pay the price by living in a Cold War-impoverished, de-developed and unhappy Europe and US \u2013 the more so, the longer the war lasts.<\/p>\n

Lacking world awareness<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 80-85% of humanity lives in countries whose governments do not side with the NATO\/EU world. If the NATO\/EU world thought about global attitudes before they made their decisions in response to Russia\u2019s invasion, they made a Himalayan miscalculation \u2013 or thought they could later bully everybody into lining up behind them.<\/p>\n

This is interesting also because NATO does not only have 30 members, it has 42 partners \u2013 some on all continents \u2013 and it tries very clearly to move towards becoming a global rather than transatlantic organisation.<\/p>\n

This dimension is brilliantly summarised by the High Rep of the EU Foreign and Security Policy (and Spanish Socialist Workers\u2019 Party member), Josef Borell\u2019s<\/em> racist statement from late 2022: \u201cEurope is a garden. We have built a garden. Everything works. It is the best combination of political freedom, economic prosperity and social cohesion that the humankind has been able to build \u2013 the three things together. The rest of the world,\u201d he went on, \u201cis not exactly a garden. Most of the rest of the world is a jungle, and the jungle could invade the garden.\u201d (Stated when opening the European Diplomatic (!) Academy in Bruges).<\/p>\n

This leads to:<\/p>\n

Intellectual poverty<\/em><\/strong> \u2013 EU\/NATO policies now operate on simplifying Twitter-like statements, assertions, non-documented accusations, self-legitimising marketing language, slogans, empty promises and symbolic blue-yellow emblems, ties, dresses \u2013 instead of on analyses, arguments and complex understanding.<\/p>\n

Following these things every day is utterly boring, predictable and \u2013 filled with repetition. Mr Stoltenberg could easily enter Guiness World Records in Banality Repetition. The awareness or focus of politics, media and research is on weapons, war reporting, media war, more weapons fast into Ukraine \u2013 and \u2018we shall win\u2019 and \u2018Russia must not win.\u2019<\/p>\n

The obvious questions never asked are: And then what? At what cost to whom? And what will Europe and the world look like afterwards \u2013 if it exists? These groupthinkers don\u2019t seem to bother. The idea of asking: If war,<\/em> what are the underlying conflicts?<\/em> What are the real, tangible problems<\/em> \u2013 a conflict is an unsolved problem \u2013 that stand between NATO and Russia and seriously contributed to the latter blowing up \u2013 is prohibited.<\/p>\n

The intellectual poverty also comes through in believing, as it seems, that the word \u2018Putin\u2019<\/em> explains everything. So, this enormously complex conflict accumulating and deepening since the Berlin Wall came down and the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact dissolved, is reduced to Mr Putin \u2013 The (D)Evil \u2013 his personality, childhood, or his being physically or mentally ill, a man you shall not listen to who runs a country whose people we punish collectively (against international law, but who cares?).<\/p>\n

Furthermore, it comes through in cancelling all critical voices and calling people who ar capable of seeing two sides in a conflict \u2018Putinists\u2019 or \u2018Putin Versteher\u2019 \u2013 the poor trick of framing, of attacking the messenger instead of saying something intellectually qualified.<\/p>\n

So, nine psycho-political building blocks in synergy.<\/p>\n

Reality checks are very unlikely \u2013 at least until the crisis is on the verge of complete breakdown. These building blocks alone guarantee, in my view, that this is not going to go well, and that the NATO\/EU leaders are likely to make ever larger miscalculations and live on delusions. Wars tend to narrow down people\u2019s minds. There is no space or time for reflection, for stopping to think.<\/p>\n

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Ukraine in NATO? Rather NATO in Ukraine the last 30 years. And peace?<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

2. What does it mean to win?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The usual, again intellectually deficient, argument is that\u2019 we\u2019 must and will, therefore, win, \u2018they\u2019 shall lose. And, implicitly, we win because<\/em> they lose, we win over them. That could turn out to be wrong because \u2018they\u2019 might win and \u2018we\u2019 might lose.<\/p>\n

But it is actually a fourfold table;<\/em> apart from these two outcomes, both could somehow win, and both could lose.<\/p>\n

But even this is a fallacy \u2013 because there are not two but many parties: Russia (government and people), Ukraine (government and people), NATO with 30 member states (governments and people) and the US as the leader (government and people). And there is the rest of the world and how the conflict and war impact the global system as time passes.<\/p>\n

But let\u2019s stick to the winning idea. What does it mean? Winning militarily, of course \u2013 but also winning politically, morally, economically and culturally? Who will be stronger in which respects when the war ends?<\/em><\/p>\n

The most likely scenario I see on this first anniversary of the war, is a long struggle rather than a quick end to it. The longer it lasts, the more difficult it will be to solve the underlying conflicts \u2013 because of the immense accumulated hatred, traumas, devastations, death and wounded, the destroyed economies, etc.<\/p>\n

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