{"id":23634,"date":"2012-12-03T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-12-03T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=23634"},"modified":"2012-12-03T12:48:39","modified_gmt":"2012-12-03T12:48:39","slug":"un-two-empires-crumbling-and-then-what","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2012\/12\/un-two-empires-crumbling-and-then-what\/","title":{"rendered":"UN: Two Empires Crumbling – And Then What?"},"content":{"rendered":"

From Washington, DC<\/em><\/p>\n

There is History in the UN 29 November 2012 vote: 138 YES to giving Palestine the UN status as “nonmember observer state”, only 9 NO, and 41 abstentions.\u00a0 Beyond Middle East politics the vote also mirrors the limits to the US global, and the Israeli regional, empires: 138 defy their grip and favor change, 41+9=50 do not, for various reasons. A crucial vote on a crucial issue is a crucial test.\u00a0 Who wants what?<\/p>\n

First, the OIC-Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Muslim, Arab: none yielding to USA-Israel in spite of the efforts against the Arab awakening. Israel is alone in the region: Greece-Turkey-Cyprus were all YES.\u00a0 Next: Saraoui, Western Sahara; building on Spain-Morocco YES, and Kashmir on India-Pakistan.<\/p>\n

Second: more than half of the not in favor<\/em> was from Eastern Europe (16) and the Pacific (10: 9 mini-states, and Australia).\u00a0 Add 7 from Latin America, 5 from Africa, 3 from Asia (not Japan) and we get 41.<\/p>\n

Third: Western Europe-NATO divided.\u00a0 The Nordic-EFTA (European Free Trade Association) countries in favor, as also Austria, France and GIPSI (Greece-Italy-Portugal-Spain-Ireland), the indebted EU periphery.\u00a0 Not in favor<\/em>: UK, Germany, Netherlands; 3 mini-states; hard core USA-Israel (Usrael)-Canada for the 50: only a quarter of the UN membership.<\/p>\n

The General Assembly is the closest we have to a world democracy; no Security Council big power veto.\u00a0 Israel has no regional support and the USA only little, shaky, insignificant, world support. Memories of the Soviet Empire\u2014dead for 20 years–are fading and mini-states are exactly that.\u00a0 The US clout does not even reach Afghanistan-Iraq-Libya recently bombed-invaded-occupied.\u00a0 UK remains; like poodle to master.<\/p>\n

Read the vote in terms of a world regionalization process: Green light for the OIC; some political light needed in the Latin America-Caribbean, Africa and Asia regions.\u00a0 The Nordic-EFTA moral light is intact, and the new Third World, GIPSI, is joining the old.\u00a0 Germany, beware.<\/p>\n

The USA is out of touch<\/em>.\u00a0 Stop droning, killing; make a beautiful North America with Mexico and Canada (R. B. Zoelick in WP<\/em> 30-ll-2012).<\/p>\n

But empires also crumble from within through demoralization.<\/p>\n

For political demoralization<\/em><\/strong>: the basic factor is lack of world clout.\u00a0 But watch the “fiscal cliff” process for the doubts about the US political process: two parties, at logger-heads.\u00a0 No forgiving mortgage debts, no creative lifting of the bottom 16%–many not knowing where the next meal comes from–into the economy, increasing domestic demand.<\/p>\n

For economic demoralization<\/em><\/strong>: the basic factor is a West outcompeted. Add Robert Samuelson “Why the recovery lags”: The financial crisis and Great Recession scared the wits out of most Americans–cautious, risk-aversive and defensive–spending less and saving more” (WP<\/em> 26-11-12). Greg Smith-Why I left Goldman Sachs: A Wall Street Story-<\/em>defines good business as “flat commissions on transparent exchange-listed trades”; not exorbitant commissions, secret deals, obscure derivatives and bonuses and status linked to the gross credits the trader brings in.\u00a0 Not a single person imprisoned; but lobbies against new legislation.<\/p>\n

For military demoralization<\/em><\/strong>: the basic factor is the USA-NATO losing. But watch the lifestyle and affair on the top of the US Army in Afghanistan, and CIA anywhere, killing machines: General Petraeus. Imagine the effect on soldiers risking their lives for an unwinnable and dubious war with the top fooling around. See Richard Strauss 1874 opera, Die Fledermaus<\/em>, for the end of the Austrian-Hungarian Empire.<\/p>\n

For cultural demoralization<\/em><\/strong>: the basic factor is decreasing faith in US exceptionalism, leading the world as No. 1. The USA is No. 1 in claiming to be No. 1, in the mainstream media, by public figures ignoring what happens in the real world. Truth will dawn upon them.<\/p>\n

For social demoralization<\/em><\/strong>: “U.S. birthrate plummets to lowest level since 1920” (WP<\/em> 30-11-2012)–“led by immigrant women hit hard by the recession”.\u00a0 This may imply decline in the US population and in tax revenue, as in much of the West.\u00a0 And the enormous gun violence.<\/p>\n

Add it all up: the fall of the US Empire is on track.<\/p>\n

How about Israel? Heading for a cliff of its own making: suicide.<\/p>\n

The UN vote was on the 65th anniversary of the UN Resolution181-Partition Plan for Palestine. Two-State resolution following Folke Bernadotte, then murdered by Israel. Nakba<\/em>. The problem is not Zionism but hard, revisionist Expansion-0ccupation-Siege (E-O-S). Zionism driving to the cliff. The UN vote legitimized Palestine and delegitimized that kind of Israel. Much will follow in multi- and bilateral diplomacy and NGOs; in spite of Usrael threats.<\/p>\n

Direct negotiations lead nowhere: the Oslo process left security, Jerusalem, refugees, Israeli settlements, boundaries, for “later”.<\/p>\n

But Israel would have to react to the rockets!\u00a0 Yes, by dropping E-O-S for 2-6-20plus: Two States in a Six-State community with Arab neighbors in a 20plus-State Organization for Security and Cooperation within a nuclear free zone. Nevertheless, Israel delegitimized itself by choosing violence, Hamas-Hizbollah rockets, dirty bombs, Iron Domes, David’s Sling, huge 9\/11 underground shelters. Israel buried underground in a sui-sociocide.<\/p>\n

Israel also reacts to nonviolence–boycott, non-cooperation, civil disobedience–with violence, as it did against the Free Gaza Boats trying to break the siege.\u00a0 Thus, it delegitimizes itself even further.<\/p>\n

Together with mainstream USA, Israel, Usrael tries to control the discourse by branding all critics as anti-Semites, self-hating Jews, etc. A non-starter in democracies.\u00a0 Jimmy Carter, Desmond Tutu, Noam Chomsky, Norman Finkelstein, Richard Falk, to mention just a few recently branded that way, are neither anti-Jewish nor anti-Israel; they use transparency and dialogue–the hallmarks of democracy–constructively. Stifle that, and we get two elites listening only to themselves.<\/p>\n

Travel these roads: delegitimize, meet violence with violence, meet nonviolence with violence, control discourse. And down the road, very close to the cliff, the South African scenario is waiting. The USA decides one day that Israel is more of a liability than an asset.<\/p>\n

Israel is out of touch<\/em>.\u00a0 A regime change from within is needed.<\/p>\n

________________________<\/p>\n

\u00a0Johan Galtung, a professor of peace studies, dr hc mult, is rector of the TRANSCEND Peace University-TPU<\/a>. He is author of over 150 books on peace and related issues, including \u2018<\/em>50 Years-100 Peace and Conflict Perspectives,\u2019 published by the TRANSCEND University Press-TUP<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Editorials and articles originated on TMS may be freely reprinted, disseminated, translated and used as background material, provided an acknowledgment and link to the source, TRANSCEND Media Service-TMS, is included. Thank you.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There is History in the UN 29 November 2012 vote: 138 YES to giving Palestine the UN status as “nonmember observer state”, only 9 NO, and 41 abstentions. Beyond Middle East politics the vote also mirrors the limits to the US global, and the Israeli regional, empires: 138 defy their grip and favor change, 41+9=50 do not, for various reasons. A crucial vote on a crucial issue is a crucial test. Who wants what?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-editorial"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23634","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23634"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23634\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23634"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23634"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23634"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}