{"id":239573,"date":"2023-07-24T12:00:34","date_gmt":"2023-07-24T11:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=239573"},"modified":"2023-07-18T06:03:23","modified_gmt":"2023-07-18T05:03:23","slug":"the-real-history-of-the-war-in-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2023\/07\/the-real-history-of-the-war-in-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"The Real History of the War in Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"

A Chronology of Events and Case for Diplomacy<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

17 Jul 2023 – <\/em>The public urgently need to know the true history of the war in Ukraine and its current prospects. Unfortunately, US mainstream media \u2013\u2013The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, MSNBC, <\/em>and CNN<\/em> \u2013\u2013 have become mere mouthpieces of the government, repeating US President Joe Biden\u2019s lies and hiding history from the public.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Biden is again denigrating Russian President Vladimir Putin, this time accusing Putin<\/a> of a \u201ccraven lust for land and power,\u201d after declaring last year<\/a> that \u201cFor God\u2019s sake, that man [Putin] cannot stay in power.\u201d\u00a0 Yet Biden is the one who is trapping Ukraine in an open-ended war by continuing to push NATO enlargement to Ukraine.\u00a0 He is afraid to tell the truth to the American and Ukrainian people, rejecting diplomacy, and opting instead for perpetual war.<\/p>\n

Expanding NATO to Ukraine, which Biden has long promoted, is a U.S. gambit that has failed.\u00a0 The neocons, including Biden, thought from the late 1990s onward that the US could expand NATO to Ukraine (and Georgia) despite Russia\u2019s vociferous and long-standing opposition.\u00a0 They didn\u2019t believe that Putin would actually go to war over NATO expansion.<\/p>\n

Yet for Russia, NATO enlargement to Ukraine (and Georgia) is viewed as an existential threat to Russia\u2019s national security, notably given Russia\u2019s 2,000-km border with Ukraine, and Georgia\u2019s strategic position on the eastern edge of the Black Sea.\u00a0 U.S. diplomats have explained this basic reality to U.S. politicians and generals for decades, but the politicians and generals have arrogantly and crudely persisted in pushing NATO enlargement nonetheless.<\/p>\n

At this point, Biden knows full well that NATO enlargement to Ukraine would trigger World War III.\u00a0 That\u2019s why behind the scenes Biden put NATO enlargement into low gear at the Vilnius NATO Summit.\u00a0 Yet rather than admit the truth \u2013 that Ukraine will not be part of NATO \u2013 Biden prevaricates, promising Ukraine\u2019s eventual membership.\u00a0 In reality, he is committing Ukraine to ongoing bloodletting for no reason other than U.S. domestic politics, specifically Biden\u2019s fear of looking weak to his political foes.\u00a0 (A half-century ago, Presidents Johnson and Nixon sustained the Vietnam War for essentially the same pathetic reason, and with the same lying, as the late Daniel Ellsberg brilliantly explained<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

Ukraine can\u2019t win.\u00a0 Russia is more likely than not to prevail on the battlefield, as it seems now to be doing. Yet even if Ukraine were to break through with conventional forces and NATO weaponry, Russia would escalate to nuclear war if necessary to prevent NATO in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Throughout his entire career, Biden has served the military-industrial complex. He has relentlessly promoted NATO enlargement and supported America\u2019s deeply destabilizing wars of choice in Afghanistan, Serbia, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and now Ukraine. He defers to generals who want more war and more \u201csurges,\u201d and who predict imminent victory just ahead<\/a> to keep the gullible public onside.<\/p>\n

Moreover, Biden and his team (Antony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, Victoria Nuland) seem to have believed their own propaganda that Western sanctions would strangle the Russian economy, while miracle weapons such as HIMARS would defeat Russia.\u00a0 And all the while, they have been telling Americans to pay no attention to Russia\u2019s 6,000 nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

Ukrainian leaders have gone along with the US deception for reasons that are hard to fathom. Perhaps they believe the US, or are afraid of the US, or fear their own extremists, or simply are extremists, ready to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians to death and injury in the na\u00efve belief that Ukraine can defeat a nuclear superpower that regards the war as existential. Or possibly some of the Ukrainian leaders are making fortunes by skimming from the tens of billions of dollars of Western aid and arms.<\/p>\n

The only way to save Ukraine is a negotiated peace. In a negotiated settlement, the US would agree that NATO will not enlarge to Ukraine while Russia would agree to withdraw its troops.\u00a0 Remaining issues \u2013 Crimea, the Donbas, US and European sanctions, the future of European security arrangements \u2013 would be handled politically, not by endless war.<\/p>\n

Russia has repeatedly tried negotiations: to try to forestall the eastward enlargement of NATO; to try to find suitable security arrangements with the US and Europe; to try to settle inter-ethnic issues in Ukraine after 2014 (the Minsk I and Minsk II agreements); to try to sustain limits on anti-ballistic missiles; and to try to end the Ukraine war in 2022 via direct negotiations with Ukraine. In all cases, the US government disdained, ignored, or blocked these attempts, often putting forward the big lie that Russia rather than the US rejects negotiations. JFK said it exactly right in 1961: \u201cLet us never negotiate out of fear, but let us never fear to negotiate.\u201d\u00a0 If only Biden would heed JFK\u2019s enduring wisdom.<\/p>\n

To help the public move beyond the simplistic narrative of Biden and the mainstream media, I offer a brief chronology of some key events leading to the ongoing war.<\/p>\n

January 31, 1990.\u00a0 German Foreign Minister Hans Dietrich-Genscher pledges<\/a> to Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev that in the context of German reunification and disbanding of the Soviet Warsaw Pact military alliance, NATO will rule out an \u201cexpansion of its territory to the East, i.e., moving it closer to the Soviet borders.\u201d<\/p>\n

February 9, 1990.\u00a0 U.S. Secretary of State James Baker III agrees<\/a> with Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev that \u201cNATO expansion is unacceptable.\u201d<\/p>\n

June 29 \u2013 July 2, 1990.\u00a0 NATO Secretary-General Manfred Woerner tells a high-level Russian delegation<\/a> that \u201cthe NATO Council and he [Woerner] are against the expansion of NATO.\u201d<\/p>\n

July 1, 1990.\u00a0 Ukrainian Rada (parliament) adopts the Declaration of State Sovereignty<\/a>, in which \u201cThe Ukrainian SSR solemnly declares its intention of becoming a permanently neutral state that does not participate in military blocs and adheres to three nuclear free principles: to accept, to produce and to purchase no nuclear weapons.\u201d<\/p>\n

August 24, 1991.\u00a0 Ukraine declares independence<\/a> on the basis of the 1990 Declaration of State Sovereignty, which includes the pledge of neutrality.<\/p>\n

Mid-1992.\u00a0 Bush Administration policymakers reach a secret internal consensus<\/a> to expand NATO, contrary to commitments recently made to the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation.<\/p>\n

July 8, 1997.\u00a0 At the Madrid NATO Summit<\/a>, Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic are invited to begin NATO accession talks.<\/p>\n

September-October, 1997.\u00a0 In Foreign Affairs<\/em> (Sept\/Oct, 1997) former U.S. National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski details<\/a> the timeline for NATO enlargement, with Ukraine\u2019s negotiations provisionally to begin during 2005-2010.<\/p>\n

March 24 \u2013 June 10, 1999.\u00a0 NATO bombs Serbia.\u00a0 Russia terms the NATO bombing \u201ca flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter.”<\/p>\n

March 2000.\u00a0 Ukrainian President Kuchma declares<\/a> that “there is no question of Ukraine joining NATO today since this issue is extremely complex and has many angles to it.\u201d<\/p>\n

June 13, 2002.\u00a0 The US unilaterally withdraws from the Anti-Ballistic Weapons Treaty, an action which the Vice-Chair of the Russian Duma Defense Committee characterizes<\/a> as an \u201cextremely negative event of historical scale.\u201d<\/p>\n

November-December 2004.\u00a0 The \u201cOrange Revolution\u201d occurs in Ukraine, events that the West characterizes as a democratic revolution and the Russian government characterizes as a Western-manufactured<\/a> grab for power with overt and covert US support.<\/p>\n

February 10, 2007.\u00a0 Putin strongly criticizes<\/a> the U.S. attempt to create a unipolar world, backed by NATO enlargement, in a speech to the Munich Security Conference, declaring: \u201cI think it is obvious that NATO expansion \u2026 represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust. And we have the right to ask: against whom is this expansion intended? And what happened to the assurances our western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact?\u201d<\/p>\n

February 1, 2008.\u00a0 US Ambassador to Russia William Burns sends a confidential cable<\/a> to U.S. National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, entitled \u201cNyet means Nyet: Russia\u2019s NATO Enlargement Redlines,\u201d emphasizing that \u201cUkraine and Georgia’s NATO aspirations not only touch a raw nerve in Russia, they engender serious concerns about the consequences for stability in the region.\u201d<\/p>\n

February 18, 2008.\u00a0 The US recognizes Kosovo independence<\/a> over heated Russian objections.\u00a0 The Russian Government declares<\/a> that Kosovo independence violates \u201cthe sovereignty of the Republic of Serbia, the Charter of the United Nations, UNSCR 1244, the principles of the Helsinki Final Act, Kosovo\u2019s Constitutional Framework and the high-level Contact Group accords.”<\/p>\n

April 3, 2008.\u00a0 NATO declares<\/a> that Ukraine and Georgia \u201cwill become members of NATO.\u201d Russia declares<\/a> that \u201cGeorgia\u2019s and Ukraine\u2019s membership in the alliance is a huge strategic mistake which would have most serious consequences for pan-European security.\u201d<\/p>\n

August 20, 2008.\u00a0 The US announces<\/a> that it will deploy ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems in Poland, to be followed later by Romania.\u00a0 Russia expresses strenuous opposition<\/a> to the BMD systems.<\/p>\n

January 28, 2014.\u00a0 Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and US Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt plot regime change in Ukraine in a call that is intercepted and posted on YouTube<\/a> on February 7, in which Nuland notes that \u201c[Vice President] Biden\u2019s willing\u201d to help close the deal.<\/p>\n

February 21, 2014.\u00a0 Governments of Ukraine, Poland, France, and Germany reach an Agreement on settlement of political crisis in Ukraine<\/a>, calling for new elections later in the year.\u00a0 The far-right Right Sector and other armed groups instead demand Yanukovych\u2019s immediate resignation, and take over government buildings.\u00a0 Yanukovych flees.\u00a0 The Parliament immediately strips the President of his powers without an impeachment process.<\/p>\n

February 22, 2014.\u00a0 The US immediately endorses the regime change<\/a>.<\/p>\n

March 16, 2014.\u00a0 Russia holds a referendum in Crimea that according to the Russian Government results in a large majority vote for Russian rule.\u00a0 On March 21, the Russian Duma votes to admit Crimea to the Russian Federation. The Russian Government draws the analogy to the Kosovo referendum.<\/a>\u00a0 The US rejects the Crimea referendum as illegitimate.<\/p>\n

March 18, 2014.\u00a0 President Putin characterizes the regime change as a coup, stating<\/a>: \u201cthose who stood behind the latest events in Ukraine had a different agenda: they were preparing yet another government takeover; they wanted to seize power and would stop short of nothing. They resorted to terror, murder and riots.\u201d<\/p>\n

March 25, 2014.\u00a0 President Barack Obama mocks Russia<\/a> \u201cas a regional power that is threatening some of its immediate neighbors \u2014 not out of strength but out of weakness,\u201d<\/p>\n

February 12, 2015.\u00a0 Signing of Minsk II agreement.\u00a0 The agreement is unanimously backed by the UN Security Council Resolution 2202<\/a> on February 17, 2015.\u00a0 Former Chancellor Angela Merkel later acknowledges<\/a> that the Minsk II agreement was designed to give time for Ukraine to strengthen its military.\u00a0 It was not implemented by Ukraine, and President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged<\/a> that he had no intention to implement the agreement.<\/p>\n

February 1, 2019.\u00a0 The U.S. unilaterally withdraws from the Intermediate Nuclear Force (INF) Treaty.\u00a0 Russia harshly criticizes the INF withdrawal as a \u201cdestructive\u201d act that stoked security risks.<\/p>\n

June 14, 2021.\u00a0 At the 2021 NATO Summit in Brussels, NATO reconfirms<\/a> NATO\u2019s intention to enlarge and include Ukraine: \u201cWe reiterate the decision made at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine will become a member of the Alliance.\u201d<\/p>\n

September 1, 2021.\u00a0 The US reiterates support for Ukraine\u2019s NATO aspirations in the \u201cJoint Statement on the U.S.-Ukraine Strategic Partnership<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

December 17, 2021.\u00a0 Putin puts forward a draft \u201cTreaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees<\/a>,\u201d based on non-enlargement of NATO and limitations on the deployment of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles.<\/p>\n

January 26, 2022.\u00a0 The U.S. formally replies to Russia that the US and NATO will not negotiate with Russia over issues of NATO enlargement, slamming the door on a negotiated path to avoid an expansion of the war in Ukraine.\u00a0 The U.S. invokes NATO policy<\/a> that \u201cAny decision to invite a country to join the Alliance is taken by the North Atlantic Council on the basis of consensus among all Allies. No third country has a say in such deliberations.\u201d\u00a0 In short, the US asserts that NATO enlargement to Ukraine is none of Russia\u2019s business.<\/p>\n

February 21, 2022.\u00a0 At a meeting of the Russian Security Council<\/a>, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov details the U.S. refusal to negotiate:<\/p>\n

\u201cWe received their response in late January. The assessment of this response shows that our Western colleagues are not prepared to take up our major proposals, primarily those on NATO\u2019s eastward non-expansion. This demand was rejected with reference to the bloc\u2019s so-called open-door policy and the freedom of each state to choose its own way of ensuring security. Neither the United States, nor the North Atlantic Alliance proposed an alternative to this key provision.\u201d<\/p>\n

The United States is doing everything it can to avoid the principle of indivisibility of security that we consider of fundamental importance and to which we have made many references. Deriving from it the only element that suits them \u2013 the freedom to choose alliances \u2013 they completely ignore everything else, including the key condition that reads that nobody \u2013 either in choosing alliances or regardless of them \u2013 is allowed to enhance their security at the expense of the security of others.\u201d<\/p>\n

February 24, 2022.\u00a0 In an address to the nation<\/a>, President Putin declares: \u201cIt is a fact that over the past 30 years we have been patiently trying to come to an agreement with the leading NATO countries regarding the principles of equal and indivisible security in Europe. In response to our proposals, we invariably faced either cynical deception and lies or attempts at pressure and blackmail, while the North Atlantic alliance continued to expand despite our protests and concerns. Its military machine is moving and, as I said, is approaching our very border.\u201d<\/p>\n

March 16, 2022.\u00a0 Russia and Ukraine announce significant progress towards a peace agreement mediated by Turkey and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.\u00a0 As reported in the press<\/a>, the basis of the agreement includes: \u201ca ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces.\u201d<\/p>\n

March 28, 2022.\u00a0 President Zelensky publicly declares<\/a> that Ukraine is ready for neutrality combined with security guarantees as part of a peace agreement with Russia.\u00a0 \u201cSecurity guarantees and neutrality, the non-nuclear status of our state \u2014 we\u2019re ready to do that. That\u2019s the most important point\u2009…\u2009they started the war because of it.\u201d<\/p>\n

April 7, 2022.\u00a0 Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov accuses the West<\/a> of trying to derail the peace talks, claiming that Ukraine had gone back on previously agreed proposals.\u00a0 Prime Minister Naftali Bennett later states (on February 5, 2023) that the U.S. had blocked the pending Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.\u00a0 When asked if the Western powers blocked the agreement, Bennett answered: \u201cBasically, yes. They blocked it, and I thought they were wrong.\u201d\u00a0 At some point, says Bennett<\/a>, the West decided \u201cto crush Putin rather than to negotiate.\u201d<\/p>\n

June 4, 2023.\u00a0 Ukraine launches a major counter-offensive, without achieving any major success as of mid-July 2023.<\/p>\n

July 7, 2023.\u00a0 Biden acknowledges<\/a> that Ukraine is \u201crunning out\u201d of 155mm artillery shells, and that the US is \u201crunning low.\u201d<\/p>\n

July 11, 2023.\u00a0 At the NATO Summit in Vilnius, the final communique reaffirms<\/a> Ukraine\u2019s future in NATO: \u201cWe fully support Ukraine\u2019s right to choose its own security arrangements.\u00a0 Ukraine\u2019s future is in NATO \u2026 Ukraine has become increasingly interoperable and politically integrated with the Alliance, and has made substantial progress on its reform path.\u201d<\/p>\n

July 13, 2023.\u00a0 US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reiterates<\/a> that Ukraine will \u201cno doubt\u201d join NATO when the war ends.<\/p>\n

July 13, 2023.\u00a0 Putin reiterates<\/a> that \u201cAs for Ukraine\u2019s NATO membership, as we have said many times, this obviously creates a threat to Russia\u2019s security. In fact, the threat of Ukraine\u2019s accession to NATO is the reason, or rather one of the reasons for the special military operation. I am certain that this would not enhance Ukraine\u2019s security in any way either. In general, it will make the world much more vulnerable and lead to more tensions in the international arena.\u00a0 So, I don\u2019t see anything good in this. Our position is well known and has long been formulated.\u201d<\/p>\n

______________________________________________<\/i><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a> Jeffrey D. Sachs, Professor of Sustainable Development and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University, is Director of Columbia\u2019s Center for Sustainable Development and the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. He has served as Special Adviser to three UN Secretaries-General [Kofi Annan (2001-7), Ban Ki-moon (2008-16), and currently serves as an SDG Advocate under Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres. His books include <\/em>The End of Poverty<\/a><\/span>, Common Wealth<\/a><\/span>, The Age of Sustainable Development<\/a><\/span>, Building the New American Economy<\/a><\/span>, and most recently,<\/em> A New Foreign Policy: Beyond American Exceptionalism<\/a><\/span>. Sachs was also an advisor to the last leader of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, as well as to the first president of the Russian Federation, Boris Yeltsin.<\/em><\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 thekennedybeacon.substack.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

17 Jul 2023 – A Chronology of Events and Case for Diplomacy – The public urgently need to know the true history of the war in Ukraine. Unfortunately, US mainstream media have become mere mouthpieces of the government, repeating Joe Biden\u2019s lies and hiding history from the public. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":149894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2999],"tags":[1268,260,1855,91,818,278,961,70],"class_list":["post-239573","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-war-racket-destruction-capitalism","tag-european-union","tag-history","tag-mainstream-media-msm","tag-nato","tag-proxy-war","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/239573","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=239573"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/239573\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":239575,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/239573\/revisions\/239575"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/149894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=239573"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=239573"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=239573"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}