{"id":240203,"date":"2023-07-31T12:00:58","date_gmt":"2023-07-31T11:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=240203"},"modified":"2023-07-26T05:43:39","modified_gmt":"2023-07-26T04:43:39","slug":"storm-clouds-gathering-nato-in-the-perilous-black-sea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2023\/07\/storm-clouds-gathering-nato-in-the-perilous-black-sea\/","title":{"rendered":"Storm Clouds Gathering: NATO in the Perilous Black Sea"},"content":{"rendered":"

In an ominous development, Kiev is suggesting the continuation of the collapsed Black Sea Grain Deal without Russia\u2019s participation and with apparent NATO protection.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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Joint exercises of the Russian Northern and Black Sea Fleets. President Vladimir Putin on deck of the Marshal Ustinov missile cruiser in the Black Sea, observing firing of Kalibr cruise missiles and Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles, 9 Jan 2020.
(President of the Russian Federation\/Wikimedia Commons)<\/p><\/div>\n

21 Jul 2023 – <\/em>The NATO Summit in Vilnius (July 11-12) signalled that there is absolutely no possibility of talks to settle the Ukraine war in a foreseeable future. The war will only intensify, as the US and its allies still hope to inflict a military defeat on Russia although that is clearly beyond their capability.<\/p>\n

On July 14, Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of US joint chiefs of staff said that Ukraine\u2019s counteroffensive is \u201cfar from a failure\u201d but the fight ahead will be \u201clong\u201d and \u201cbloody\u201d. Milley has a reputation for speaking what the White House wants to hear, no matter his professional judgment.<\/p>\n

Indeed, on July 19, the Biden administration announced additional security assistance<\/a> of about $1.3 billion for Ukraine. The Pentagon said in a statement that the announcement \u201crepresents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional priority capabilities to Ukraine.\u201d That is to say, the US will be using funds in its Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative program, which allows the administration to buy weapons from industry rather than pull from US weapons stocks.<\/p>\n

According to the Pentagon, the latest package includes four National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and munitions; 152 mm artillery rounds; mine clearing equipment; and drones.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, in an ominous development, no sooner than Russia let the UN-brokered grain deal expire on July 17, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky disclosed that he had sent official letters to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan suggesting to continue the grain deal without Russia\u2019s participation.<\/p>\n

On the very next day, Kiev followed up with an official letter to the UN\u2019s International Maritime Organization spelling out a new maritime corridor<\/a> passing through Romania\u2019s territorial waters and exclusive maritime economic zone in the north-western part of the Black Sea.<\/p>\n

Evidently, Kiev acted in concert with Romania (a NATO member country where the 101st Airborne Division of the US army is deployed). Presumably, the US and NATO are in the loop while the UN\u2019s imprimatur is being arranged.\u00a0 <\/span>It goes without saying that the NATO has been working on a new maritime route in the Black Sea for sometime already.<\/p>\n

This is a serious development, as it seems a precursor to involving the NATO in some way to challenge Russia\u2019s domain dominance in the Black Sea. Indeed, the NATO\u2019s Vilnius Summit Communiqu\u00e9 (July 11) had forecast that the alliance is gearing up for a vastly enhanced presence in the Black Sea region, which has been historically a Russian preserve, where its \u00a0has important military bases.<\/p>\n

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Turkish President Recep Erdogan (L) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (R) with President Biden, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (C), and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (back) NATO Summit, Vilnius, 11 Jul 2023<\/p><\/div>\n

The relevant para in the NATO Communiqu\u00e9 said: \u201cThe Black Sea region is of strategic importance for the Alliance. This is further highlighted by Russia\u2019s war of aggression against Ukraine<\/b>. We underline our continued support to Allied regional efforts aimed at upholding security, safety, stability and freedom of navigation in the Black Sea<\/b> region including, as appropriate, through the 1936 Montreux Convention<\/b>. We will further monitor and assess developments in the region and enhance our situational awareness<\/b>, with a particular focus on the threats to our security and potential opportunities for closer cooperation with our partners in the region<\/b>, as appropriate.\u201d [Emphasis added.]<\/p>\n

Four things need to be noted:<\/p>\n