{"id":243124,"date":"2023-08-28T12:00:39","date_gmt":"2023-08-28T11:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=243124"},"modified":"2023-08-28T05:10:53","modified_gmt":"2023-08-28T04:10:53","slug":"humanity-imperiled","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2023\/08\/humanity-imperiled\/","title":{"rendered":"Humanity Imperiled"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Path to Disaster<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

27 Aug 2023<\/em> – What is the future likely to bring?\u00a0 A reasonable stance might be to try to look at the human species from the outside.\u00a0 So imagine that you\u2019re an extraterrestrial observer who is trying to figure out what\u2019s happening here or, for that matter, imagine you\u2019re an historian 100 years from now \u2014 assuming there are any historians 100 years from now, which is not obvious \u2014 and you\u2019re looking back at what\u2019s happening today.\u00a0 You\u2019d see something quite remarkable.<\/p>\n

For the first time in the history of the human species, we have clearly developed the capacity to destroy ourselves.\u00a0 That\u2019s been true since 1945.\u00a0 It\u2019s now being finally recognized that there are more long-term processes like environmental destruction leading in the same direction, maybe not to total destruction, but at least to the destruction of the capacity for a decent existence.<\/p>\n

And there are other dangers like pandemics, which have to do with globalization and interaction. So there are processes underway and institutions right in place, like nuclear weapons systems, which could lead to a serious blow to, or maybe the termination of, an organized existence.\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

How to Destroy a Planet Without Really Trying<\/strong><\/p>\n

The question is: What are people doing about it?\u00a0 None of this is a secret.\u00a0 It\u2019s all perfectly open.\u00a0 In fact, you have to make an effort not to see it.<\/p>\n

There have been a range of reactions.\u00a0 There are those who are trying hard to do something about these threats, and others who are acting to escalate them.\u00a0 If you look at who they are, this future historian or extraterrestrial observer would see something strange indeed.\u00a0 Trying to mitigate or overcome these threats are the least developed societies, the indigenous populations, or the remnants of them, tribal societies and first nations in Canada.\u00a0 They\u2019re not talking about nuclear war but environmental disaster, and they\u2019re really trying to do something about it.<\/p>\n

In fact, all over the world \u2014 Australia, India, South America \u2014 there are battles going on, sometimes wars.\u00a0 In India, it\u2019s a major war over direct environmental destruction, with tribal societies trying to resist resource extraction operations that are extremely harmful locally, but also in their general consequences.\u00a0 In societies where indigenous populations have an influence, many are taking a strong stand.\u00a0 The strongest of any country with regard to global warming is in Bolivia, which has an indigenous majority and constitutional requirements that protect the \u201crights of nature.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ecuador, which also has a large indigenous population, is the only oil exporter I know of where the government is seeking aid to help keep that oil in the ground, instead of producing and exporting it \u2014 and the ground is where it ought to be.<\/p>\n

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who died recently and was the object of mockery, insult, and hatred throughout the Western world, attended a session of the U.N. General Assembly a few years ago where he elicited all sorts of ridicule for calling George W. Bush a devil.\u00a0 He also gave a speech there that was quite interesting.\u00a0 Of course, Venezuela is a major oil producer.\u00a0 Oil is practically their whole gross domestic product.\u00a0 In that speech, he warned of the dangers of the overuse of fossil fuels and urged producer and consumer countries to get together and try to work out ways to reduce fossil fuel use.\u00a0 That was pretty amazing on the part of an oil producer.\u00a0 You know, he was part Indian, of indigenous background.\u00a0 Unlike the funny things he did, this aspect of his actions at the U.N. was never even reported.<\/p>\n

So, at one extreme you have indigenous, tribal societies trying to stem the race to disaster.\u00a0 At the other extreme, the richest, most powerful societies in world history, like the United States and Canada, are racing full-speed ahead to destroy the environment as quickly as possible. \u00a0Unlike Ecuador, and indigenous societies throughout the world, they want to extract every drop of hydrocarbons from the ground with all possible speed.<\/p>\n

Both political parties, President Obama, the media, and the international press seem to be looking forward with great enthusiasm to what they call \u201ca century of energy independence\u201d for the United States.\u00a0 Energy independence is an almost meaningless concept, but put that aside.\u00a0 What they mean is: we\u2019ll have a century in which to maximize the use of fossil fuels and contribute to destroying the world.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s pretty much the case everywhere.\u00a0 Admittedly, when it comes to alternative energy development, Europe is doing something.\u00a0 Meanwhile, the United States, the richest and most powerful country in world history, is the only nation among perhaps 100 relevant ones that doesn\u2019t have a national policy for restricting the use of fossil fuels, that doesn\u2019t even have renewable energy targets.\u00a0 It\u2019s not because the population doesn\u2019t want it.\u00a0 Americans are pretty close to the international norm in their concern about global warming.\u00a0 It\u2019s institutional structures that block change.\u00a0 Business interests don\u2019t want it and they\u2019re overwhelmingly powerful in determining policy, so you get a big gap between opinion and policy on lots of issues, including this one.<\/p>\n

So that\u2019s what the future historian \u2014 if there is one \u2014 would see.\u00a0 He might also read today\u2019s scientific journals.\u00a0 Just about every one you open has a more dire prediction than the last.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Most Dangerous Moment in History\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

The other issue is nuclear war.\u00a0 It\u2019s been known for a long time that if there were to be a first strike by a major power, even with no retaliation, it would probably destroy civilization just because of the nuclear-winter consequences that would follow.\u00a0 You can read about it in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists<\/em>.\u00a0 It\u2019s well understood.\u00a0 So the danger has always been a lot worse than we thought it was.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve just passed the 50th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, which was called \u201cthe most dangerous moment in history\u201d by historian Arthur Schlesinger, President John F. Kennedy\u2019s advisor.\u00a0 Which it was.\u00a0 It was a very close call, and not the only time either.\u00a0 In some ways, however, the worst aspect of these grim events is that the lessons haven\u2019t been learned.<\/p>\n

What happened in the missile crisis in October 1962 has been prettified to make it look as if acts of courage and thoughtfulness abounded.\u00a0 The truth is that the whole episode was almost insane.\u00a0 There was a point, as the missile crisis was reaching its peak, when Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev wrote to Kennedy offering to settle it by a public announcement of a withdrawal of Russian missiles from Cuba and U.S. missiles from Turkey.\u00a0 Actually, Kennedy hadn\u2019t even known that the U.S. had missiles in Turkey at the time.\u00a0 They were being withdrawn anyway, because they were being replaced by more lethal Polaris nuclear submarines, which were invulnerable.<\/p>\n

So that was the offer.\u00a0 Kennedy and his advisors considered it \u2014 and rejected it.\u00a0 At the time, Kennedy himself was estimating the likelihood of nuclear war at a third to a half.\u00a0 So Kennedy was willing to accept a very high risk of massive destruction in order to establish the principle that we \u2014 and only we \u2014 have the right to offensive missiles beyond our borders, in fact anywhere we like, no matter what the risk to others \u2014 and to ourselves, if matters fall out of control. We have that right, but no one else does.<\/p>\n

Kennedy did, however, accept a secret agreement to withdraw the missiles the U.S. was already withdrawing, as long as it was never made public.\u00a0 Khrushchev, in other words, had to openly withdraw the Russian missiles while the U.S. secretly withdrew its obsolete ones; that is, Khrushchev had to be humiliated and Kennedy had to maintain his macho image.\u00a0 He\u2019s greatly praised for this: courage and coolness under threat, and so on.\u00a0 The horror of his decisions is not even mentioned \u2014 try to find it on the record.<\/p>\n

And to add a little more, a couple of months before the crisis blew up the United States had sent missiles with nuclear warheads to Okinawa.\u00a0 These were aimed at China during a period of great regional tension.<\/p>\n

Well, who cares?\u00a0 We have the right to do anything we want anywhere in the world.\u00a0 That was one grim lesson from that era, but there were others to come.<\/p>\n

Ten years after that, in 1973, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger called a high-level nuclear alert.\u00a0 It was his way of warning the Russians not to interfere in the ongoing Israel-Arab war and, in particular, not to interfere after he had informed the Israelis that they could violate a ceasefire the U.S. and Russia had just agreed upon. \u00a0Fortunately, nothing happened.<\/p>\n

Ten years later, President Ronald Reagan was in office.\u00a0 Soon after he entered the White House, he and his advisors had the Air Force start penetrating Russian air space to try to elicit information about Russian warning systems, Operation Able Archer.\u00a0 Essentially, these were mock attacks.\u00a0 The Russians were uncertain, some high-level officials fearing that this was a step towards a real first strike.\u00a0 Fortunately, they didn\u2019t react, though it was a close call.\u00a0 And it goes on like that.<\/p>\n

What to Make of the Iranian and North Korean Nuclear Crises<\/strong><\/p>\n

At the moment, the nuclear issue is regularly on front pages in the cases of North Korea and Iran.\u00a0 There are ways to deal with these ongoing crises. \u00a0Maybe they wouldn\u2019t work, but at least you could try.\u00a0 They are, however, not even being considered, not even reported.<\/p>\n

Take the case of Iran, which is considered in the West \u2014 not in the Arab world, not in Asia \u2014 the gravest threat to world peace.\u00a0 It\u2019s a Western obsession, and it\u2019s interesting to look into the reasons for it, but I\u2019ll put that aside here.\u00a0 Is there a way to deal with the supposed gravest threat to world peace?\u00a0 Actually there are quite a few.\u00a0 One way, a pretty sensible one, was proposed a couple of months ago at a meeting of the non-aligned countries in Tehran.\u00a0 In fact, they were just reiterating a proposal that\u2019s been around for decades, pressed particularly by Egypt, and has been approved by the U.N. General Assembly.<\/p>\n

The proposal is to move toward establishing a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the region.\u00a0 That wouldn\u2019t be the answer to everything, but it would be a pretty significant step forward.\u00a0 And there were ways to proceed.\u00a0 Under U.N. auspices, there was to be an international conference in Finland last December to try to implement plans to move toward this.\u00a0 What happened?<\/p>\n

You won\u2019t read about it in the newspapers because it wasn\u2019t reported \u2014 only in specialist journals.\u00a0 In early November, Iran agreed to attend the meeting.\u00a0 A couple of days later Obama cancelled the meeting, saying the time wasn\u2019t right.\u00a0 The European Parliament issued a statement calling for it to continue, as did the Arab states.\u00a0 Nothing resulted.\u00a0 So we\u2019ll move toward ever-harsher sanctions against the Iranian population \u2014 it doesn\u2019t hurt the regime \u2014 and maybe war. Who knows what will happen?<\/p>\n

In Northeast Asia, it\u2019s the same sort of thing.\u00a0 North Korea may be the craziest country in the world.\u00a0 It\u2019s certainly a good competitor for that title.\u00a0 But it does make sense to try to figure out what\u2019s in the minds of people when they\u2019re acting in crazy ways.\u00a0 Why would they behave the way they do?\u00a0 Just imagine ourselves in their situation.\u00a0 Imagine what it meant in the Korean War years of the early 1950s for your country to be totally leveled, everything destroyed by a huge superpower, which furthermore was gloating about what it was doing.\u00a0 Imagine the imprint that would leave behind.<\/p>\n

Bear in mind that the North Korean leadership is likely to have read the public military journals of this superpower at that time explaining that, since everything else in North Korea had been destroyed, the air force was sent to destroy North Korea\u2019s dams, huge dams that controlled the water supply \u2014 a war crime, by the way, for which people were hanged in Nuremberg.\u00a0\u00a0 And these official journals were talking excitedly about how wonderful it was to see the water pouring down, digging out the valleys, and the Asians scurrying around trying to survive.\u00a0 The journals were exulting in what this meant to those \u201cAsians,\u201d horrors beyond our imagination.\u00a0 It meant the destruction of their rice crop, which in turn meant starvation and death.\u00a0 How magnificent! \u00a0It\u2019s not in our memory, but it\u2019s in their memory.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s turn to the present.\u00a0 There\u2019s an interesting recent history.\u00a0 In 1993, Israel and North Korea were moving towards an agreement in which North Korea would stop sending any missiles or military technology to the Middle East and Israel would recognize that country.\u00a0 President Clinton intervened and blocked it.\u00a0 Shortly after that, in retaliation, North Korea carried out a minor missile test.\u00a0 The U.S. and North Korea did then reach a framework agreement in 1994 that halted its nuclear work and was more or less honored by both sides.\u00a0 When George W. Bush came into office, North Korea had maybe one nuclear weapon and verifiably wasn\u2019t producing any more.<\/p>\n

Bush immediately launched his aggressive militarism, threatening North Korea \u2014 \u201caxis of evil\u201d and all that \u2014 so North Korea got back to work on its nuclear program.\u00a0 By the time Bush left office, they had eight to 10 nuclear weapons and a missile system, another great neocon achievement.\u00a0 In between, other things happened.\u00a0 In 2005, the U.S. and North Korea actually reached an agreement in which North Korea was to end all nuclear weapons and missile development.\u00a0 In return, the West, but mainly the United States, was to provide a light-water reactor for its medical needs and end aggressive statements.\u00a0 They would then form a nonaggression pact and move toward accommodation.<\/p>\n

It was pretty promising, but almost immediately Bush undermined it.\u00a0 He withdrew the offer of the light-water reactor and initiated programs to compel banks to stop handling any North Korean transactions, even perfectly legal ones.\u00a0 The North Koreans reacted by reviving their nuclear weapons program.\u00a0 And that\u2019s the way it\u2019s been going.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s well known.\u00a0 You can read it in straight, mainstream American scholarship.\u00a0 What they say is: it\u2019s a pretty crazy regime, but it\u2019s also following a kind of tit-for-tat policy.\u00a0 You make a hostile gesture and we\u2019ll respond with some crazy gesture of our own. \u00a0You make an accommodating gesture and we\u2019ll reciprocate in some way.<\/p>\n

Lately, for instance, there have been South Korean-U.S. military exercises on the Korean peninsula which, from the North\u2019s point of view, have got to look threatening.\u00a0 We\u2019d think they were threatening if they were going on in Canada and aimed at us.\u00a0 In the course of these, the most advanced bombers in history, Stealth B-2s and B-52s, are carrying out simulated nuclear bombing attacks right on North Korea\u2019s borders.<\/p>\n

This surely sets off alarm bells from the past.\u00a0 They remember that past, so they\u2019re reacting in a very aggressive, extreme way.\u00a0 Well, what comes to the West from all this is how crazy and how awful the North Korean leaders are.\u00a0 Yes, they are.\u00a0 But that\u2019s hardly the whole story, and this is the way the world is going.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not that there are no alternatives.\u00a0 The alternatives just aren\u2019t being taken. That\u2019s dangerous.\u00a0 So if you ask what the world is going to look like, it\u2019s not a pretty picture.\u00a0 Unless people do something about it.\u00a0 We always can.<\/p>\n

____________________________________________<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Avram Noam Chomsky is an American linguist, philosopher, cognitive scientist, historian, logician, social critic, and political activist. Sometimes described as “the father of modern linguistics,” Chomsky is also a major figure in analytic philosophy, and one of the founders of the field of cognitive science. He has spent more than half a century at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), where he is Institute Professor Emeritus, and is the author of over 100 books on topics such as linguistics, war, politics, mass media,<\/em> US foreign policy, social issues, Latin American and European history, and more.<\/em> His latest books are <\/em>Failed States, The Abuse of Power and the Assault on Democracy<\/a> and <\/em>Hegemony or Survival<\/a>, both in the <\/em>American Empire Project<\/em><\/a> series at Metropolitan Books.<\/em> \u00a0noamchomsky@\u200bemail.arizona.edu<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 tomdispatch.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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