{"id":248268,"date":"2023-11-13T12:00:57","date_gmt":"2023-11-13T12:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=248268"},"modified":"2023-11-13T04:10:51","modified_gmt":"2023-11-13T04:10:51","slug":"el-nino-expected-to-last-at-least-until-april-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2023\/11\/el-nino-expected-to-last-at-least-until-april-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o Expected to Last at least until April 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"panels-flexible-row panels-flexible-row-28-main-row clearfix\">\n<div class=\"inside panels-flexible-row-inside panels-flexible-row-28-main-row-inside clearfix\">\n<div class=\"panels-flexible-region panels-flexible-region-28-center panels-flexible-region-first panels-flexible-region-last \">\n<div class=\"inside panels-flexible-region-inside panels-flexible-region-28-center-inside panels-flexible-region-inside-first panels-flexible-region-inside-last\">\n<div class=\"panel-pane pane-entity-field pane-node-field-headline\">\n<div class=\"pane-content\">\n<div class=\"field-headline\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/landscape.jpg\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-248269\" src=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/landscape.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/landscape.jpg 610w, https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/landscape-300x169.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>El Ni\u00f1o is expected to fuel further temperature increases<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Impacts will continue into 2024<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>It will exacerbate extreme weather and climate-events, like heatwaves, floods and droughts<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Early Warnings for All save lives<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>8 Nov 2023 <\/em>&#8211; The ongoing El Ni\u00f1o event is expected to last at least until April 2024, influencing weather patterns and contributing to a further spike in temperatures both on land and in the ocean, according to a new Update from the World Meteorological Organization.<\/p>\n<p>As of mid-October 2023, sea surface temperatures and other atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the central-eastern tropical Pacific are consistent with El Ni\u00f1o, the warm phase of El Ni\u00f1o\/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The El Ni\u00f1o developed rapidly during July-August, and reached moderate strength by September, 2023 and is likely to peak as a strong event in November &#8211; January 2024. There is a 90% likelihood it will persist throughout the upcoming northern hemisphere winter\/southern hemisphere summer.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/el-nino-temp-rain-world-map2.jpg\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-248273\" src=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/el-nino-temp-rain-world-map2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"363\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/el-nino-temp-rain-world-map2.jpg 974w, https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/el-nino-temp-rain-world-map2-300x198.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/el-nino-temp-rain-world-map2-768x506.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Based on historical patterns and current long-range predictions, it is anticipated it will gradually diminish during the forthcoming boreal spring, says the WMO El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update, which combines forecasts and expert guidance from around the world.<\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o occurs on average every two to seven years, and typically last nine to 12 months. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. But it takes place in the context of a climate being changed by human activities.<\/p>\n<p>\u00ab\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o impacts on global temperature typically play out in the year after its development, in this case in 2024. But as a result of record high land and sea-surface\u00a0 temperatures since June, the year 2023 is now on track to be the warmest year on record. Next year may be even warmer. This is clearly and unequivocally due to the contribution of the increasing concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases from human activities,\u201d said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cExtreme events such as heatwaves, drought, wildfires, heavy rain and floods will be enhanced in some regions, with major impacts. That is why WMO is committed to the Early Warnings For All initiative to save lives and minimize economic losses,\u201d said Prof. Taalas.<\/p>\n<p>The previous warmest year on record was 2016 due to a \u201cdouble whammy\u201d of an exceptionally strong El Ni\u00f1o and climate change.<\/p>\n<p>Since May 2023, monthly average sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have warmed significantly, rising from about 0.5 \u00b0C above average in May, 2023) to around 1.5 \u00b0C above average in September, 2023. These estimates are relative to the 1991-2020 baseline period, using the latest version of the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) dataset.<\/p>\n<p>The most recent forecasts and expert assessment suggest a high likelihood of continued warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific for at least the next four overlapping 3-month seasons: November-January, December-February, January-March, and February-April 2024.<\/p>\n<p>A strong El Ni\u00f1o does not necessarily mean strong El Ni\u00f1o impacts locally. It is important to note that El Ni\u00f1o is not the only factor that drives global and regional climate patterns, and that the magnitudes of El Ni\u00f1o indicators do not directly correspond to the magnitudes of their effects. No two El Ni\u00f1o events are alike.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Global Seasonal Climate Update<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Given that ENSO is not the only driver of the Earth\u2019s climate system, WMO also issues regular\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wmolc.org\/gscuBoard\/list\"  target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Global Seasonal Climate Updates<\/a>\u00a0(GSCU), which incorporate influences of the other major climate variability modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_248272\" style=\"width: 710px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/el-nino-temp-rain-world-map.png\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-248272\" class=\"wp-image-248272\" src=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/el-nino-temp-rain-world-map.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"288\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/el-nino-temp-rain-world-map.png 902w, https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/el-nino-temp-rain-world-map-300x123.png 300w, https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/el-nino-temp-rain-world-map-768x316.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-248272\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Probabilistic forecasts of surface air temperature and precipitation for the season November-January 2023-24. The baseline period is 1993\u20132009<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u201cConsistent with the development of an El Ni\u00f1o in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, together with the prediction of above-normal sea-surface temperatures over much of the global oceans, there is widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas. The largest increase in probabilities for above-normal temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere is predicted generally south of about 40\u00b0N and in the regions north of 65\u00b0N. There are also enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperatures over most of the Southern Hemisphere.\u201d says the GSCU for November-December-January.<\/p>\n<p>Predictions for rainfall in the forthcoming three months are similar to many of the typical impacts of El Ni\u00f1o, including above-normal rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa (for the remainder of the rainfall season), in Parana\/La Plata basin in South America, in Southeast North America, in parts of central and eastern Asia and in a narrow band along and just north of the equator in the Pacific. Below-normal rainfall is predicted in most of northern South America, over much of Australia, in the Maritime continent (most of Indonesia, Borneo, Papua New Guinea and the Philippine Islands) and in the Pacific Ocean islands south of about 30\u00b0N, and immediately to the north of the wet band.<\/p>\n<p>The WMO Updates are based on WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts and are available to support governments, the United Nations, decision-makers and stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors to mobilize preparations and protect lives and livelihoods.<\/p>\n<p>More detailed interpretations of the implications of El Ni\u00f1o (and other factors) impacts on temperature and precipitation will be made available through the WMO Regional Climate Centres at regional level, and by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) at national and local level.<\/p>\n<div class=\"media_embed\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/AcwpLNi70ts?si=MolQjm0cRVxdbkkU\" width=\"560px\" height=\"315px\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p align=\"center\">________________________________________________<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\" align=\"center\"><em>The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations System\u2019s authoritative voice on Weather, Climate and Water &#8211;\u00a0<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.wmo.int\/\" >www.wmo.int<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en\/media\/press-release\/el-ni%C3%B1o-expected-last-least-until-april-2024\" >Go to Original &#8211; public.wmo.int<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>8 Nov 2023 &#8211; The ongoing El Ni\u00f1o event is expected to last at least until April 2024, influencing weather patterns and contributing to a further spike in temperatures both on land and in the ocean, according to a new Update from the World Meteorological Organization.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":248269,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[686,519,3095,401,993,304,2876],"class_list":["post-248268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","tag-climate-change","tag-ecology","tag-el-nino","tag-environment","tag-global-warming","tag-science","tag-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/248268","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=248268"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/248268\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":248278,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/248268\/revisions\/248278"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/248269"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=248268"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=248268"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=248268"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}