{"id":248771,"date":"2023-11-20T12:00:05","date_gmt":"2023-11-20T12:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=248771"},"modified":"2023-11-20T11:51:07","modified_gmt":"2023-11-20T11:51:07","slug":"how-do-wars-end-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2023\/11\/how-do-wars-end-2\/","title":{"rendered":"How Do Wars End?"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;Only about 400 rebels had been in the fight at the bridge, but as the day wore on the number increased to several thousand.\u00a0 They would shoot at the enemy column from behind fences, trees, barns, walls, from inside houses, then reload, hurry ahead, and then shoot again.\u00a0 This was a strange, new type of warfare to the British, who were neither experienced, nor trained for it.\u00a0 To them it seemed dishonorable, hiding and shooting at men in the open who could not even see their enemies.\u00a0 As one Redcoat wrote his family: They did not fight us like a regular army, only like savages.&#8221;<a href=\"#_edn1\"> [i]<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Sounds familiar, today. And as the American Revolution, the War of Independence beginning April 19 1775, on the road Boston-Lexington-Concord in Massachusetts.\u00a0 The savages won.\u00a0 235 years later they are with the British against &#8220;savages&#8221; in Iraq, in Afghanistan and against terror.\u00a0 Is the victory foretold?\u00a0 No, the future holds not only victory and defeat for these three wars.<\/p>\n<p>We may search for warfare origins in Greece, as told by the over-quoted Thucydides or under-quoted Xenophon.\u00a0 Or in feudal tournaments, armored men with lances on horseback unsaddling, ultimately killing each other, with umpires, later field marshals, naming the victor, and the vanquished conceding.\u00a0 Sport turned war, with beginning and end.<\/p>\n<p>This was carried into modernity and the state system of the &#8220;Peace&#8221; of Westphalia 24 October 1648 by declaration and capitulation, bracketing the war as a succession of battles.\u00a0 The right of killing was contingent on the duty of risking being killed, with honor and courage and the ultimate honor to the most courageous of being a <em>hero<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>The nineteenth century witnessed the erosion of chivalry and sport to total war, &#8220;to the utmost limit&#8221;, &#8220;continuation of politics by all necessary means&#8221; (Clausewitz, even more brutal than French Jomini on Napoleon&#8217;s staff and the American Dennis Hart Mahan).\u00a0 Not limited to a battlefield: mobility, hitting the supply lines, massive attacks on one part after the other for the total destruction of enemy forces, and violence as a demoralizing force, attacking women, children, the old.<\/p>\n<p>Historically we sense three,<em> not exclusive,<\/em> consequences.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>First,<\/strong> the military being so brutal and so efficient, why not use (state) terrorism to fight civilians, unable to fight back, instead?<\/li>\n<li><strong>Second,<\/strong> <em>guerilla<\/em>, by civilians like 19 April 1775, predating the Spanish against Napoleon 2 May 1808, Vietnam against the USA and Afghanistan against the Soviets: winning no open battles, but the war.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Third,<\/strong> <em>nonviolence<\/em>, as invented by Gandhi, the heroic nonviolent warrior, ending colonialism and the Cold War, possibly inspired by the brutality of the British revenge for the Sepoy mutiny; unnoticed by Obama in his belligerent just war speech at the 2009 Nobel ceremony.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Clausewitz prepared his own undoing, and actually sensed that.<a href=\"#_edn2\">[ii]<\/a> The prediction is that the West will never defeat this triple, or an Islam that will <em>never<\/em> capitulate to infidels, numbering five times the Americans.\u00a0 But our reptile brain has an alternative to <em>fight<\/em>: <em>flight<\/em>.\u00a0 The Vietnam exit: being unavailable for ultimate defeat.<\/p>\n<p>Gone are the old days when might was right and unconditional surrender was the end of a 141-year unbroken chain of US wars, from 1812&#8211;the final battle in the War of Independence&#8211; to 1953, the Korean war armistice.\u00a0 And gone are the days when might was a sign of divine mandate, God is behind.\u00a0 Among Christians God may favor the mightiest.\u00a0 Among Muslims, perhaps.\u00a0 But certainly not across that divide.<\/p>\n<p>Gone are the days of direct battle heroism.\u00a0 Sitting at a computer in the Pentagon directing drones, or in a cockpit at 44,000 feet hitting &#8220;coordinates&#8221;, in favor of pure cowardice.<\/p>\n<p>Or, rather: the risks change with the war.\u00a0 When more commit suicide than are killed in the field reality has changed.<\/p>\n<p>Confronted with a choice between a very elusive victory, defeat, and flight, conflict resolution might grow in attractiveness.<\/p>\n<p>The question is what it takes.\u00a0 It could be equally elusive.<\/p>\n<p>Gradually the dominant war cost-benefit discourse, so natural in a militarist-capitalist country like the USA, with those in favor concluding it is worth the costs and those against it is not worth the benefits has to yield to a conflict resolution discourse about issues. But that may also prove elusive, given two basic assumptions.<\/p>\n<p>The whole encounter has to be seen from above, all parties, their goals, values, interests and where they clash, the incompatibilities. The road passes through understanding Other&#8217;s goals, and one&#8217;s own.\u00a0 There usually are legitimate goals to respect on all sides.<\/p>\n<p>And then resolution: neither for, nor against oneSelf, ideally something new accommodating all parties, acceptable and sustainable.\u00a0 Neither by threatening, nor by bribing; by the weight of a compelling vision supported by a compelling nightmare if all is left unsolved.<\/p>\n<p>Rationality, common sense; but often scarce commodities.\u00a0 And it cannot be done by one party alone, has to be done by the parties in concert, preferably dialogue, under the guidance of an impartial authority, possibly an ad hoc UN conference.<\/p>\n<p>For a USA used to dictate settlements after a victory, this is a far shot indeed.\u00a0 And added to unwillingness, maybe incapability.<\/p>\n<p>What happens then?\u00a0 With neither victory, nor defeat, nor flight, nor resolution acceptable?\u00a0 Hanging on in there, of course, fighting for time.\u00a0 There will be money for the forces and for the contracted, still for some time.\u00a0 Possible promotions, higher pensions. And so on.<\/p>\n<p>And what, meaning now what?\u00a0 None of the above, but No. 5: the USA making itself irrelevant.\u00a0 Others&#8211;Turkey? Iran? China? Russia?&#8211;will draft a conflict resolution.\u00a0 And the USA will withdraw, Vietnam-like, possibly from all three wars.\u00a0 Into the End of the Affair.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref1\">[i]<\/a>.\u00a0 Joseph P. Cullen,<em> History of the American Revolution<\/em>, Harrisburg PA: The National Historical society, 1972.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref2\">[ii]<\/a>.\u00a0 Dale O. Smith, <em>U.S. Military Doctrine<\/em>, New York NY: Little, Brown and Company, 1955, p. 54.<\/p>\n<p><em>__________________________________________<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>First <\/em><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2010\/05\/how-do-wars-end\/\" >published on 3 May 2010<\/a> &#8211; TRANSCEND Media Service<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/johan-galtung-pic.webp\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-244442\" src=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/johan-galtung-pic-150x150.webp\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a> Johan Galtung, a professor of peace studies, dr hc mult, is founder of <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/\" >TRANSCEND International<\/a><em>, <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/\" >TRANSCEND <\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/\" >Media Service<\/a>,<em> and rector of <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tpu\/\" >TRANSCEND Peace University<\/a><em>. He was awarded among others the 1987 Right Livelihood Award, known as the Alternative Nobel Peace Prize.<\/em> <em>Galtung\u00a0has mediated in\u00a0over 150 conflicts in more than 150 countries, and written more than 170 books on peace and related issues<\/em>,<em> 96 as the sole author. More than 40 have been translated to other languages, including <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tup\/index.php?book=1\" >50 Years-100 Peace and Conflict Perspectives<\/a><em> published by <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tup\/\" >TRANSCEND University Press<\/a><em>. His book, <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tup\/index.php?book=46\" >Transcend and Transform<\/a>, <em>was translated to 25 languages<\/em>.<em> He has published more than 1700 articles\u00a0and book\u00a0chapters and over 500 Editorials for <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/\" >TRANSCEND Media Service<\/a>.<em> More<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/galtung\/\" ><em> information about Prof. Galtung<\/em><\/a><em> and <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/galtung\/#publications\" ><em>all of his publications<\/em><\/a><em> can be found at <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/galtung\/\" ><em>transcend.org\/galtung<\/em><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>They would shoot at the enemy column from behind fences, trees, barns, walls, from inside houses.\u00a0This was a strange, new type of warfare to the British, neither experienced nor trained for it.\u00a0 To them it seemed dishonorable, hiding and shooting at men in the open who could not even see their enemies.\u00a0 A Redcoat wrote his family: &#8220;They did not fight us like a regular army, only like savages.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[1778,1594,481],"class_list":["post-248771","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-editorial","tag-conflict-analysis","tag-war-economy","tag-warfare"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/248771","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=248771"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/248771\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":248777,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/248771\/revisions\/248777"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=248771"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=248771"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=248771"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}