{"id":25452,"date":"2013-02-11T12:00:55","date_gmt":"2013-02-11T12:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=25452"},"modified":"2013-02-08T20:55:38","modified_gmt":"2013-02-08T20:55:38","slug":"thinking-mali","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2013\/02\/thinking-mali\/","title":{"rendered":"Thinking Mali"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The first prognosis<\/i> for the French invasion was a quick victory given their superior weaponry; and then the real war starts: guerilla.\u00a0 France is up against two very strong forces, Tuareg nationalism and Muslim islamism; cooperating and in conflict.\u00a0 They both easily mingle with others–they are parts of them–to better target the French.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 No Western country likes coffins coming home; train and equip locals to do the job, deal with semi-legitimate regimes, stretch UN resolutions: AfPak, Libya.\u00a0 US AFRICOM wants 4000 soldiers deployed in 35 African countries this year for anti-terror training.\u00a0 Some pass on weapons, some shoot in the air, some fight, deepening fault-lines like race–once slavers-slaves!–in Mali.\u00a0 The West gets desperate; the patience at home is limited.\u00a0 Time has come for state terrorism from the air, killing “strongholds”; maybe predator drones from Djibouti?<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Next in line: terrorism by both, hostages, “Special Operation Commands”, extrajudicial executions.\u00a0 Long-lasting; AfPak, Libya.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 War–>guerilla–>state terrorism–>terrorism<\/i>.\u00a0 Both in uniforms; one, not the other, neither one nor the other.\u00a0 We have been through this many times, with some variations.\u00a0 But Western learning capacity seems limited.\u00a0 France is now a couple of generations away from Dien Bien Phu, May 7 1954 (USA followed up in 1961, and down in 1975). What comes first, the 60th anniversary or French withdrawal from Mali? 1.2 million Tuaregs, camel nomads, spread over a couple of million km2<\/sup> in Central Sahara-mainly Niger and Mali, some in Burkina Faso, Algeria and Libya–united by Queen Tin Hinan in the 4th or 5th century long before there was any France; with a blossoming culture. The French conquered, massacred, dismantled their confederations, and forced them to submit.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 There is some talk about Tuareg autonomy. However, why not a Tuareg state, their Azawad<\/i>, carved out of those six+ Western constructs, based on the seven Tuareg confederations, if they so want?<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 How about the islamists?\u00a0 Tuaregs, like Taliban in Afghanistan and Fata’h in Palestine are mainly Muslims, but have a limited, nationalist agenda; unlike the Al Qa’ida and Hamas islamists demanding respect for Islam. Same in the West: states and nations, and a West writ large wanting to run the world in the name of democracy and the war on terror.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 For instance through the Economic Community of West African States-ECOWAS, a Western construct from 1975 with 15 member countries including Mali and Niger, complete with a Nigerian Miss ECOWAS as Peace Ambassador.\u00a0 The map shows states, but not the Christian-secular coastal belt with capitals, the Western bridgeheads, and the Muslim inland belt through the states from West to East.\u00a0 Huge unsustainable inequalities.\u00a0 And, Christianity and Islam seem to be counter-cyclical: one goes up when the other goes down.\u00a0 Christianity came to an end as a global force in the West with the divide and fall of the Roman empire; Islam came into being in 622 and expanded explosively spending its energy; Christianity exploded from Spain spreading to the Christian West in general forcing most of the world to submit; and has now spent its energy except for the only thing left, some atomic weapons; panicking lest Islam should get more.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Christianity is weakened by its irrelevance to our world today, beyond both Augustine’s sin and redemption through cross, faith and Church, and Origen’s long term optimism for Orthodox Christianity. Secularism is weakened by the flagrant contradiction between rule of law, human rights and democracy, and an inability to practice all of that across borders.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Better sit down and say, \u2018we are out, Islam is in\u2019, and try to convert (also happening in France)–the conclusion drawn by minds incapable of going beyond “them vs us”<\/i>.\u00a0 There is also dialogue.\u00a0 And there is mutual learning. Tuaregs and Muslims have picked up a lot from the West these last hundred years; how about the West trying to learn something from them?\u00a0 Is it obvious that the modern, automated, industrial, financial-speculation state is better than confederate camel nomadism?<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Could there be a second prognosis<\/i>, more felicitous?\u00a0 Of course:<\/p>\n