{"id":261511,"date":"2024-05-06T12:00:58","date_gmt":"2024-05-06T11:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=261511"},"modified":"2024-05-02T06:12:12","modified_gmt":"2024-05-02T05:12:12","slug":"whats-next-as-heavy-handed-us-negotiates-pullout-from-niger","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2024\/05\/whats-next-as-heavy-handed-us-negotiates-pullout-from-niger\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s Next as \u2018Heavy-Handed\u2019 US Negotiates Pullout from Niger?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Protesters react as a man holds up a sign demanding that soldiers from the United States Army leave Niger without negotiation during a demonstration in Niamey, on 13 Apr 2024.\u00a0 [AFP]<\/p><\/div>\n

US \u2018touched a nerve\u2019 in security dealings with Niger, opening door to \u2018transactional\u2019 Russia as Sahel violence spirals.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

1 May 2024 <\/em>– The United States is preparing to withdraw more than 1,000 military personnel from Niger, once a front-line partner in its war against the ISIL (ISIS) group and al-Qaeda affiliates in the Sahel region of Africa, which is currently experiencing a surge in deadly violence.<\/p>\n

Niger announced in March that it was breaking off its defence agreement<\/a> with the US \u201cwith immediate effect\u201d. The US Department of State confirmed that officials were meeting their Nigerien counterparts on Thursday to discuss \u201can orderly and responsible withdrawal of US forces\u201d.<\/p>\n

The split comes as no surprise. The military government, installed during a coup<\/a> last year, and the US were always going to be awkward bedfellows, say experts. Furthermore, the junta set the tone for relations with the West at the end of last year, when it showed 1,500 French troops<\/a> the door.<\/p>\n

Now, Russia has entered the scene. State-funded Wagner<\/a> mercenaries were already deeply embedded across Africa before their late leader Yevgeny Prigozhin marched on Moscow<\/a> last year. Now, in a clear bid to erase that chapter of history, the group has been rebranded as the \u201cAfrica Corps\u201d and a team of its military instructors recently visited Niger\u2019s capital, Niamey, with equipment to build an air defence base.<\/p>\n

Niger is one of the world\u2019s poorest countries and its army is mired in conflict with armed groups despite more than a decade of US presence. For the junta, the arrival of Russia heralds the start of a new era of potentially more fruitful \u2013 and possibly more egalitarian \u2013 relations with foreign nations.<\/p>\n

It appears that locals agree. \u201cThe junta has also won the battle of opinion,\u201d said Ibrahim Yahaya, deputy director for the Sahel Project at the International Crisis Group, an NGO dedicated to the prevention and resolution of armed conflict. Originally from the town of Zinder, Yahaya said he has witnessed how the young and disaffected approve of the junta\u2019s \u201cdifficult decisions\u201d, even as their lives get harder under regionally imposed sanctions and aid cuts imposed after last year\u2019s coup.<\/p>\n

\u201cWestern powers have enjoyed quite a bit of leeway in how they influenced\u00a0and meddled\u00a0in local affairs,\u201d he told Al Jazeera. \u201cAnd now they [Nigeriens] have a junta that is putting an end to all that. They want to assert their sovereignty.\u201d<\/p>\n

So, it\u2019s a not-so-fond farewell to the US, which is reportedly engaged in an eleventh-hour effort to persuade generals its troops should remain in the country. How did things go so wrong, and where does Niger go from here? Read on for a breakdown of this developing saga.<\/p>\n

What was the situation in Niger before the coup?<\/h2>\n

Less than a year ago, Niger was ruled by \u201cWestern poster boy\u201d Mohamed Bazoum. \u201cBut it wasn\u2019t a rose garden,\u201d said Simon Rynn, a senior research fellow for African security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based think tank.<\/p>\n

Bazoum, a former teacher, was elected in 2021 \u2013 the country\u2019s first-ever peaceful transfer of power since independence in 1960. Lauded for his democratic credentials, he offered a base for France, the US and, to a lesser extent, Italy and Germany to launch security campaigns to curb the rise of armed groups across the Sahel region, using military aid to strengthen Niger\u2019s military forces.<\/p>\n

Despite his efforts to bring reforms, such as promoting the education of girls, he struggled to shake off the legacy of his Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism, which had a 12-year run of power until the 2023 coup but had long been criticised over repression and corruption. He, himself, banned protests in 2022 which had initially been triggered by a hike in fuel prices, which brought widespread anti-French sentiment to boiling point.<\/p>\n

What changed after the coup?<\/h2>\n

Ostensibly, the coup generals claimed their priority was to protect the country from the escalating security situation. But Abdourahmane Tchiani,<\/a> then-head of the presidential guard, had reportedly heard he was going to be removed and decided to strike first, toppling Bazoum in July 2023 and declaring himself leader of the military junta.<\/p>\n

In the chaos that followed, Bazoum called Western and regional allies from a safe room in his house, setting off a diplomatic drive to reverse the coup. Led by regional powerhouse Nigeria, regional leaders from West African bloc ECOWAS imposed heavy economic sanctions and threatened a military invasion of Niger.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe public discourse in the junta was that France was pushing ECOWAS,\u201d said Yahaya, of the Crisis Group. By the end of the year, French troops had been expelled from Niger. As for the US, the clock was ticking, a \u201clack of trust\u201d prompting a gradual \u201csouring of relations\u201d, even if the Joe Biden administration initially attempted to strike a cautious tone.<\/p>\n

\u201cFrom the beginning, they [the junta] knew it would be a tough relationship,\u201d he said. \u201cThey never trusted the US would support a military junta.\u201d<\/p>\n

A visit by US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, during which she was barred from visiting Bazoum who was \u201cunder virtual house arrest\u201d, went badly. But the real breaking point came in March after a visit by senior US officials to discuss democratic transition<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The military said on national television that the officials had accused Niger of making \u201csecret deals\u201d with Russia and Iran, threatening action against the country if it did not cut ties with both countries.<\/p>\n

The US approach was \u201cheavy-handed\u201d, said Yahaya. \u201cThe tone of the meeting, where they tried to dictate the measures, angered the generals.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"A
US and Niger flags are raised side by side at the base camp for air forces and other personnel supporting the construction of Nigerien\u00a0Air Base 201 in Agadez, Niger, on April 16, 2018
\n[Carley Petesch\/AP Photo]<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

What was the US doing in Niger?<\/h2>\n

Niger is viewed as the West\u2019s last major ally in the Sahel region. This vast expanse lying south of the Sahara Desert is home to Boko Haram in Nigeria as well as affiliates of ISIL and al-Qaeda which expanded in northern Mali in 2012, the violence spilling over into Niger and Burkina Faso three years later.<\/p>\n

The situation is critical. Attending a summit of African leaders this week in Abuja, the UN deputy secretary-general, Amina Mohammed, noted that half the 8,352 deaths caused by \u201cterrorism\u201d around the world last year were in the Sahel. The conflict has displaced millions across the region.<\/p>\n

The US has been in Niger since 2012, when it started conducting drone surveillance operations. It expanded its presence in 2018, with the construction of Nigerien Air Base 201 in Agadez at a cost of more than $100m. Over the past decade or so, the US has reportedly invested hundreds of millions of dollars in training Niger\u2019s military.<\/p>\n

But the US overestimated the strength of the partnership. In truth, the Nigerien military had long bristled over the terms of the so-called Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between the two countries. According to Yahaya, Niger had three times requested that terms be revised. Last month, the junta said the deal had been \u201cunilaterally imposed\u201d.<\/p>\n

Some of the clauses were deemed \u201cdecidedly unequal and exploitative\u201d, said RUSI\u2019s Rynn. The military was particularly riled that United States wasn\u2019t sharing military intelligence garnered by drone flights from Nigerien airspace.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat really touched a nerve,\u201d said Rynn.<\/p>\n

Why has Russia become involved?<\/h2>\n

The United States\u2019 loss is Russia\u2019s gain.<\/p>\n

In the immediate aftermath of Tchiani\u2019s takeover, supporters of the junta were waving Russian flags on the streets of downtown Niamey, prompting suspicions that the Kremlin was behind the coup.<\/p>\n

But while it clearly benefitted Russia, Rynn believes the coup was \u201cdomestically driven\u201d. Though it\u2019s true, he said, that Russian embassies in the region carry a stock of flags to \u201ccapitalise on any development that \u2026 could be used to embarrass the West\u201d.<\/p>\n

\"A
A supporter of Niger\u2019s ruling junta holds a placard in the colours of the Russian flag reading \u2018Long Live Russia, Long Live Niger and Nigeriens\u2019 at the start of a protest called to fight for the country\u2019s freedom and push back against foreign interference in Niamey, Niger, on August 3, 2023
\n[Sam Mednick\/AP Photo]<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In any case, Russia was pushing on an open door, experts say. The generals had already asked Wagner for help to ward off threats of invasion from ECOWAS. Now, the Africa Corps \u2013 controversially named after Adolf Hitler\u2019s expeditionary force \u2013 is taking care of business, helping Niger build an air defence system so the country can control its own skies.<\/p>\n

According to Yahaya, the country\u2019s bid to secure its airspace has less to do with the war on armed groups and more to do with warding off France, which has a long history of interventionism in its former African colonies and maintains a monetary empire through the euro-pegged currency, the CFA franc<\/a>. However, he notes, there\u2019s an element of \u201cparanoia on their side\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese jihadists do not own drones and aircraft,\u201d he said. \u201cToday the regime\u2019s first priority is to stay in power. They know the divorce with France went really badly. They don\u2019t believe France will go without striking back \u2026 Hence there is a desire to own an air defence system.\u201d<\/p>\n

What is Russia\u2019s plan?<\/h2>\n

Beyond the military assistance, any details of a quid pro quo remain unclear.<\/p>\n

A recent report by think tank RUSI, based on internal Russian government documents, revealed the country\u2019s \u201cguns-for-gold\u201d model is still very much alive, but with a more considered geopolitical strategy for Niger.<\/p>\n

According to the documents cited in the report, the Africa Corps plans to offer a \u201cregime survival package\u201d to client governments, exchanging military and diplomatic support for resources. In Niger, Russia is aiming to secure concessions for uranium mines, thereby threatening France\u2019s access to supplies for its 56 nuclear reactors which produce most of the country\u2019s energy.<\/p>\n

None of this advances Nigerien sovereignty, analysts point out. But Yahaya said he believes the Niger military does not regard Russia as a \u201cforeign presence\u201d. \u201cWith the Russians, it\u2019s very transactional \u2013 money for services,\u201d he said. \u201cThey view them as temporary business between the Nigerien government and the Russian government.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to Rynn: \u201cNiger has welcomed the Russian trainers and equipment in. Their big hope is that they can use that to turn the tide,\u201d he said. \u201cBut the honeymoon period will end, and people will say: \u2018Where are Russia\u2019s results?\u2019\u201d He believes Russia will \u201cgradually get drawn further into providing more support to the military\u201d.<\/p>\n

Niger has joined like-minded neighbours Mali and Burkina Faso \u2013 also ruled by military leaders since recent coups \u2013 in ditching France for Russia. The trio pledged to leave ECOWAS in January and have formed a defence and economic pact of their own named the Alliance of Sahel States<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What will the US do now?<\/h2>\n

\u201cOld-fashioned diplomacy is what they [the US] did wrong,\u201d said Yahaya.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you come as a superpower and dictate behaviours to people, it doesn\u2019t work. You shouldn\u2019t underestimate how determined people are to assert their sovereignty. If you come to dictate lessons to them, there is no business.\u201d<\/p>\n

US officials are now battling to retain boots on the ground in the region, both in Niger and in Chad. The latter recently questioned an agreement allowing the US to conduct security operations within its borders, ordering it to halt activities at the Adji Kossei Air Base in N\u2019Djamena, which also hosts 1,500 French soldiers. The US currently has about 100 Special Forces soldiers in the country.<\/p>\n

The tensions were exposed in a leaked letter this month, prompting speculation that Chad was trying to strengthen its hand ahead of elections<\/a> on May 6. \u201cAre they trying to renegotiate with everybody, make some tough initial moves \u2026 but then recalibrate and have more equal dealings with everybody?\u201d asked Rynn.<\/p>\n

\n

Chief of the Chadian Airforce sent a message to American Defense attach\u00e9 warning US forces based at N\u2019Djamena Adji Kossei airbase to immediately stop activities. \ud83c\uddf9\ud83c\udde9 #Tchad<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/nc2LApDHxD<\/a><\/p>\n

— Mahamat M Adam Bechir (@BlazianP) April 19, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n