{"id":271071,"date":"2024-08-12T12:01:17","date_gmt":"2024-08-12T11:01:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=271071"},"modified":"2024-08-10T05:38:32","modified_gmt":"2024-08-10T04:38:32","slug":"interrogating-the-venezuelan-victory-of-nicolas-maduro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2024\/08\/interrogating-the-venezuelan-victory-of-nicolas-maduro\/","title":{"rendered":"Interrogating the Venezuelan Victory of Nicol\u00e1s Maduro"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"\"<\/a>

Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, left, and opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez address supporters during a protest in Caracas, 30 Jul 2024.
Photo: Cristian Hernandez TRT World<\/p><\/div>\n

Venezuelan Election Sparks Geopolitical Feud Between US, China and Russia<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

6 Aug 2024 <\/em>– Whether incumbent President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro holds on to power could very well depend on his allies, and the result could have global ramifications.<\/p>\n

One week after Venezuela held its presidential election on July 28, the United States and its rivals China and Russia are taking sides in the debate over who actually won power in the South American state, which has had an anti-Western socialist leadership under President Nicolas Maduro.<\/p>\n

The US\u00a0contests<\/a>\u00a0the official results declared by the National Electoral Council (CNE), the country\u2019s election oversight authority, which said that Maduro won 51 percent against opposition candidate Edmundo Gonz\u00e1lez Urrutia\u2019s 44 percent.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile\u00a0China<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Russia\u00a0<\/a>are standing by the incumbent president.<\/p>\n

According to the US-backed opposition, Gonzalez won the presidency with a large margin. He has called for protests against Maduro, and anti-government demonstrations have been raging across Venezuela since the CNE\u2019s declaration of election results. Maduro described the unrest as\u00a0a far-right conspiracy<\/a>\u00a0against his government.<\/p>\n

Venezuela\u2019s election has also divided Latin America, where pro-Western governments from Argentina to Peru, Panama and several other states\u00a0rejected<\/a>\u00a0the official result. Countries like Cuba, which have socialist leaderships, have backed Maduro\u2019s reelection.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt present, Maduro\u2019s victory has received congratulatory messages from left governments in the region including Cuba, Nicaragua, and Bolivia and critical reactions from the US and European countries,\u201d said Richard Falk, a leading international relations expert.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Mexico, Brazil and Colombia, the three critical Latin American countries with leftist or left-leaning governments, have distanced themselves from the US position. These nations have\u00a0important interactions<\/a>\u00a0with both Russia and China, and\u00a0oppose external interference<\/a>\u00a0to address the Venezuelan impasse.<\/p>\n

But the three states also called on Caracas to release details of election results, urging an internal\u00a0\u201cinstitutional solution\u201d<\/a>. Caracas says that a hacking attack prevents the electoral oversight body from releasing detailed outcomes as its website\u00a0continues to be down.\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

History of tensions<\/strong><\/p>\n

Venezuela has seen at least two failed coup attempts against anti-Western governments since\u00a0the Bolivarian Revolution<\/a>\u00a0in 1999, which was launched by Venezuelan socialist leader Hugo Chavez, who passed away in 2013 which brought his protege Maduro to power.<\/p>\n

\"\"
APA mural of the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez with a message that reads in Spanish: \u201cChavez, the heart of our towns\u201d, in Caracas, Venezuela, July 24, 2024.
\nPhoto\/Fernando Vergara<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The Bolivarian revolution refers to Simon Bolivar, a 19th-century Venezuelan leader who was\u00a0instrumental\u00a0<\/a>in achieving the independence of some South American states from Spanish rule. Like Bolivar in the past, Chavez and later Maduro along with their allies have aimed to form an anti-Western socialist bloc across the region.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe natural stance of the opposition and of countries (Western powers) is to oppose Madurismo-Chavismo,\u201d said Juan Martin Gonzalez Caba\u00f1as, a researcher at Moscow State Linguistic University (MSLU) and a Eurasia specialist at the Argentine-based Center of Studies \u201cSoberan\u00eda\u201d.<\/p>\n

Madurismo-Chavismo refers to the ongoing leftist governance in Venezuela since the Bolivarian revolution. So far, at least two failed coup attempts were launched against the Venezuelan socialist leadership.<\/p>\n

In 2002,\u00a0US-linked forces ousted<\/a>\u00a0Chavez for a brief time from power, but in a dramatic reversal, much of the military loyal to Chavez restored him to power after a tense 47 hours. In 2020, there was another failed coup attempt against Maduro\u2019s government. This one was orchestrated by Jordan Goudreau, a US Green Beret, who was recently\u00a0arrested\u00a0<\/a>by the US in New York for arms smuggling.<\/p>\n

\u201cMore or less impartial commentators believe that the political outcome will depend on whether the Venezuelan armed forces continue to back Maduro and whether the opposition is militant and organised enough to threaten the survival of the Maduro government,\u201d Falk told\u00a0TRT World.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Cabanas assesses that Western powers\u2019 antagonist relationship with Maduro and their approach to his reelection bid are clearly related to their political interests. \u201cA [Venezuelan] government opposed to Chavismo would be more functional to their objectives,\u201d he told\u00a0TRT World.<\/em><\/p>\n

Russia and China weigh in<\/strong><\/p>\n

On the other hand, the Kremlin is on the side of Maduro, \u201cfirmly\u201d backing him and the outcomes of elections that recognised him and his government as winner of elections, according to Cabanas.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Venezuela\u2019s President Nicolas Maduro, right, meets with Russia\u2019s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, at Miraflores Presidential Palace in Caracas, Venezuela, April 18, 2023.
\nAP ARCHIVE<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

China, which has already\u00a0congratulated\u00a0<\/a>Maduro on a third term following the release of election results, also reiterated its support for the socialist leader.<\/p>\n

\u201cChina will, as always, firmly support Venezuela\u2019s efforts to safeguard national sovereignty, national dignity and social stability, and firmly support Venezuela\u2019s just cause of opposing external interference,\u201d President Xi Jinping said last week.<\/p>\n

Both Chavez and Maduro have been long aligned with the anti-Western camp, ranging from Russia to China and regional leftist states like Cuba to counter US influence in Venezuela.<\/p>\n

But Caracas faces a serious economic recession under US-led sanctions, which has led\u00a0more than 7.7 million Venezuelans<\/a>\u00a0to migrate to other countries, particularly the US, since 2014.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s difficult to present a fair assessment of the elections because \u201cthey are being undertaken in a country that operates in a state of economic siege and hostile relations with the United States,\u201d said Alexander Moldovan, a researcher on social movements and security in Latin America at York University.<\/p>\n

\u201cDemocracy and national security are difficult to balance,\u201d Moldovan told\u00a0TRT World<\/em>, referring to the Venezuelan political dilemma. He sees that the country\u2019s post-election process will be difficult as both pro-government and opposition forces have been entrenched into their firm positions.<\/p>\n

Prior to the election, Maduro has shown his flexibility and held\u00a0talks with Washington<\/a>\u00a0to address the two countries\u2019 differences, aiming to reach an agreement to ease sanctions.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough Maduro\u2019s victory is a win for the counter-hegemonic powers that counterweights the West, this fact should be measured in its proper context: Venezuela is facing an economic recovery after very hard years, and Chavismo is no longer an ideological \u2018export brand\u2019 as it used to be, at least in its region (South America\/Latin America),\u201d Cabanas added.<\/p>\n

Madurism and regional socialist trends<\/strong><\/p>\n

Falk said he believes that Madurism\u2019s future might depend on how \u201cgovernments with progressive credentials, such as Colombia, Brazil and Mexico, will influence\u201d its perceptions outside Venezuela if the socialist leader\u2019s reelection is \u201csustained in a future period that is bound to be turbulent.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"
Bolivia\u2019s President Luis Arce, from left, Venezuela\u2019s President Nicolas Maduro and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva assemble for a group photo during the South American Summit at Itamaraty palace in Brasilia, Brazil, May 30, 2023.
\nPhoto\/Andre Penner AP<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The three countries are part of BRICS, a non-Western alliance, and have not sided with the Western stance, as Brazil\u2019s leftist President Luiz In\u00e1cio \u201cLula\u201d da Silva said he found \u201cnothing abnormal<\/a>\u201d in the election process.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf Maduro manages to hold on, and especially if he gains support from Brazil and other moderate governments, it will be interpreted as a setback for ideologically motivated US coercive diplomacy, including an effort to exert political influence by imposing sanctions unilaterally,\u201d Falk said.<\/p>\n

But if the opposite political scenario becomes a reality, then Maduro\u2019s exit and opposition success could be perceived \u201cas allied with the right and the beneficiary of US intervention,\u201d according to Falk. This perception would essentially empower leftist tendencies in Latin America, \u201cnot so much for the sake of socialism or electoral integrity, but to assure sovereign rights and resistance to foreign intervention, especially on behalf of capitalist vested interests.\u201d<\/p>\n

The professor also drew attention to the media\u2019s use of political language when it comes to internal settings and processes of anti-Western states like Venezuela.<\/p>\n

While pro-Maduro forces describe Mar\u00eda Corina Machado Parisca, a leading opposition leader, and Gonzales, as the leaders of \u201cright-wing\u201d or \u201cfar-right\u201d groups, \u201cthe liberal media never uses this language, painting the struggle as between \u201cautocratic\u201d and \u201cdemocratic\u201d tendencies,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, \u201cMaduro describes his movement as one on behalf of the people, especially the poor and marginalised, rarely speaking of \u2018socialism\u2019 as the inspiration or goal,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

__________________________________________________<\/p>\n

Source:\u00a0<\/em>TRT World<\/p>\n

Submitted by <\/em>TRANSCEND Member Richard Falk<\/em><\/p>\n

Go to Original – richardfalk.org<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

6 Aug 2024 – \u201cIf Maduro manages to hold on, and especially if he gains support from Brazil and other moderate governments, it will be interpreted as a setback for ideologically motivated US coercive diplomacy, including an effort to exert political influence by imposing sanctions unilaterally,\u201d Richard Falk said.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":203067,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[3143,2642,1140,547,244,1661,392,541,559,1190,944,278,923,874,2137,70,557],"class_list":["post-271071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latin-america-and-the-caribbean","tag-anti-hegemony","tag-anti-imperialism","tag-bolivia","tag-brazil","tag-china","tag-colombia","tag-elections","tag-latin-america-caribbean","tag-maduro","tag-regime-change","tag-richard-falk","tag-russia","tag-sanctions","tag-socialism","tag-south-america","tag-usa","tag-venezuela"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/271071","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=271071"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/271071\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":271076,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/271071\/revisions\/271076"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/203067"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=271071"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=271071"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=271071"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}