{"id":276240,"date":"2024-10-07T12:01:38","date_gmt":"2024-10-07T11:01:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=276240"},"modified":"2024-10-02T08:42:07","modified_gmt":"2024-10-02T07:42:07","slug":"escalate-to-de-escalate-what-led-iran-to-attack-israel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2024\/10\/escalate-to-de-escalate-what-led-iran-to-attack-israel\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cEscalate to De-escalate\u201d: What Led Iran to Attack Israel"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tehran tests the limits of retaliation as Israel lays siege to southern Lebanon.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

2 Oct 2024 <\/em>– Yesterday evening, Iran launched a wave of ballistic missile attacks striking sites throughout Israel, in retaliation for its recent assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards officer Abbas Nilforoushan. Initial estimates claim that Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, with missiles reportedly targeting military airbases and other sites throughout the country.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn response to the assassination of Martyr Haniyeh, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Sardar Nilforoshan, we targeted important targets,\u201d read a statement shared on Telegram channels linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. \u201cIf the Zionist regime responds to our attack, our next attacks will be more devastating.\u201d In a statement about the attack, the IRGC said that it had \u201ctargeted three military bases: Nevatim, which houses F-35 aircraft, Netzarim, which houses F-15 jets used in the assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and Tel Nof base near Tel Aviv with Fateh ballistic missiles.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Video footage<\/a> on social media also showed damage from missile impacts in Israeli cities, including multiple attacks that hit Tel Aviv. One individual, an Israeli citizen of Palestinian descent, was reportedly killed by a missile that struck the city of Jericho. Despite videos appearing to show major strikes on military targets across Israel, including airfields and facilities associated with Israeli intelligence, there were no initial reports of military casualties. Israel has a state military censor to suppress information deemed important to national security.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Rockets fired from Iran over the skies of Jerusalem.
\/ Photo by Mostafa Alkharouf\/Anadolu\u00a0 via Getty Images<\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re in a very, very potentially dangerous position. I think Iran knows that. I think the Iranian leadership knows that. I think it feels confident enough that it won\u2019t lose a war\u2014it may not win a war but Israel\u2019s not sending troops to Iran,\u201d said Hooman Majd, a political analyst and author who served as an advisor to former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami. \u201cIt\u2019s going to be missiles back and forth, perhaps a bombing run by Israeli planes, but it\u2019s not going to be much past that. Iran can\u2019t do a bombing run on Israel, but it can send missiles and it has good missiles and it has drones.\u201d<\/p>\n

Israel\u2019s military offensive in Lebanon has already killed hundreds of Lebanese civilians, and displaced roughly one million people, while also inflicting devastating losses on the leadership of Hezbollah, Iran\u2019s chief political and military ally in the region. For Iran, the dilemma was how to retaliate, Majd said: strong enough to send a response, but not so strong as to provoke Israel to come back with a substantially harder attack.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran\u2019s been very clear that they don\u2019t want the great war. It\u2019s the last thing they want,\u201d said Majd, who recently met with the new Iranian president and other officials during the UN General Assembly in New York. \u201cThe mere fact that the supreme leader did a 180 from supporting the most hardline elements in Iran to supporting, fully supporting, a moderate who wants to get Iran out of the situation it\u2019s in. No, I don\u2019t think Iran has any appetite for a broader war.\u201d Though Iran had promised a response after the killing of Nasrallah, it had previously declined to hit Israel directly after the assassination of numerous other allies and Iranian military commanders and advisers.<\/p>\n

Iranian officials have said that, in the immediate aftermath of the assassination of Haniyeh at an IRGC guesthouse in Tehran in July, U.S. officials urged them against retaliating. The U.S. told them that such a move would jeopardize a supposedly impending ceasefire deal in Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu then went on to systematically sabotage any deal. And Israel launched its pager attacks in Lebanon and began bombing areas throughout the country, assassinating much of the Hezbollah senior leadership.<\/p>\n

In a statement on Twitter, Iran\u2019s recently elected reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian said, \u201cNetanyahu should know that Iran is not a warmonger, but it stands firmly against any threat,\u201d adding, \u201cThis is only a part of our power. Do not enter into a conflict with Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n

In April, following the killings of several high-ranking IRGC officers in Syria, Iran launched a large number of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel. But in that attack it carefully signaled its intentions to Israel\u2019s regional allies over a period of days. This allowed them to intercept most of the projectiles, leaving the attack itself to serve more as a demonstration of Iran\u2019s capabilities than a direct assault.<\/p>\n

This was not the case in the attack this Tuesday, which saw countless ballistic missiles directly striking Israeli territory. Footage shared online showed salvos of projectiles striking Israeli territory, overwhelming the country\u2019s vaunted Iron Dome and Arrow missile batteries. Geolocated footage posted online also appeared to show a huge missile barrage striking Nevatim Air Base in the Negev Desert, which houses many of Israel\u2019s advanced F-35 fighter jets. Another strike geolocated by open-source intelligence analysts struck near the headquarters of the Mossad in northern Tel Aviv.<\/p>\n

Notably, Iran gave warning of today\u2019s attack, but with far less time than it did in April. According to reports from Reuters, Iran did inform the U.S. through diplomatic channels earlier in the day about the impending attack. Millions of Israeli citizens had already retreated<\/a> to bomb shelters by the time the missiles struck.<\/p>\n

Part of the message Majd said Iran sent was: Next time there may be no advance warning. \u201cIf we don\u2019t telegraph it, if we do this at 3:00 in the morning and nobody knows that we\u2019re doing this, if we can manage to keep it secret, we could do a lot of damage,\u201d he said, speculating on Iran\u2019s thinking. \u201cThe fact that they did this was to really show not just Israel, but also show the regional states, the Arab states, \u2018We have firepower, and it\u2019s not going to be easy to stop us.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

Netanyahu gave a brief speech after the strikes. He characterized the Iranian attack as a failure, which was largely thwarted by Israeli defenses, and he thanked the U.S. for its support. \u201cIran made a big mistake tonight\u2014and it will pay for it. The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies,\u201d he said. Both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris characterized the attacks as a failure and credited the U.S. with militarily assisting Israel. \u201cThis is testament to Israeli military capability and the U.S. military,\u201d said Biden. \u201cI’m clear-eyed Iran is a destabilizing, dangerous force in the Middle East,” Harris said<\/p>\n

A string of Israeli tactical successes with its assassination rampage in Lebanon had seemingly emboldened Netanyahu over the past month. Rather than condemn Israel\u2019s massive bombing of a crowded Beirut suburb in an effort to kill Nasrallah, Biden and Harris endorsed the assassination operation, saying it served as a \u201cmeasure of justice.\u201d During his post-Nasrallah victory tour this week, Netanyahu delivered a video address, purportedly aimed at the people of Iran whom he called \u201cPersians.\u201d He seemed to promise imminent regime change in Iran. \u201cWhen Iran is finally free, and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think, everything will be different,\u201d Netanyahu said in a video posted to social media. The Israeli prime minister also hinted at the likelihood of future Israeli strikes directly targeting the Iranian government, warning that, \u201cthere is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach.\u201d<\/p>\n

The mixture of triumphalism and threats continued when Jared Kushner, Donald Trump\u2019s son-in-law and former point man for Middle East affairs, issued a lengthy post on Twitter on September 29 openly demanding U.S. support for an Israeli attack against Iran. \u201cIran is now fully exposed,\u201d he wrote, adding: \u201cFailing to take full advantage of this opportunity to neutralize the threat is irresponsible.\u201d<\/p>\n

Amid the drumbeat of threats and following the seeming decimation of its allies in Lebanon, Iran may have calculated that its best bet was to hit first before it was targeted at home, rather than continuing a policy of strategic patience.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe narrative being created by Jared Kushner\u2019s statement as well as Netanyahu\u2019s regime change video was that Iran is now on its back, and this is the time to go and take them out,\u201d\u00a0 said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. \u201cThis telegraphed a clear message that Israel was planning to attack Iran, one way or another, relatively soon.\u201d<\/p>\n

Reporting recently has indicated<\/a> that senior figures in the Biden administration, including Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk and presidential adviser Amos Hochstein, have given the green light to Israel\u2019s military offensive against Iranian allies in the region, reportedly treating it as an opportunity to transform the region in their favor. This endorsement of maximalist Israeli goals by the Biden administration\u2014evidently undaunted by the staggering humanitarian toll in Gaza and Lebanon\u2014also seemed to play a role in Iran\u2019s decision to target Israel directly at this time.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Iranians also now have ample evidence to conclude that Israel is not doing this on their own, and that, rather than restraining them, the Biden administration is completely on board with Israel\u2019s policy for the region,\u201d Parsi added. \u201cWar is already at Iran\u2019s doorstep.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Biden administration has issued statements suggesting Israel will respond to the Iranian attack harshly, with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan saying that the assault \u201cappears to have been defeated and ineffective.\u201d The statements seemed to downplay the gravity of the unprecedented attack as Israel considers how it will retaliate.<\/p>\n

Potential targets include Iran\u2019s oil and gas fields, along with sites affiliated with its nuclear program and the leadership of the current Iranian government. Iran has periodically threatened to target oil and gas plants in neighboring countries if its own critical infrastructure was struck, a step that would likely plunge the global economy into crisis. Likewise, Iran and Iran-backed groups in the region have threatened in the past to target Israeli port, energy, and water desalination facilities in the event of a major war.<\/p>\n

Facing a potential decapitation strike, the Iranians appeared to have struck first in order to send a message that in any such conflict Israel\u2019s own critical infrastructure and military assets would also not be spared.<\/p>\n

\u201cAfter a string of assassinations and other Israeli escalations in recent weeks, Iran is trying to create a new deterrence equilibrium. They are saying that we can still hit you, and we can hit you hard,\u201d said Sina Toossi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy. \u201cIran is actually trying to \u2018escalate to de-escalate\u2019 here. They had pursued a policy of strategic patience, but many people inside Iran had already been saying that if they had responded forcefully to the killing of Haniyeh, there would not have been the strike against Nasrallah.\u201d<\/p>\n

Earlier this week, it was announced that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had been moved to a secure location for his own safety after recent assassinations, and likely in preparation for Tuesday\u2019s strikes. Khamenei is expected to deliver a sermon at congregational prayers in Tehran this Friday, a significant and relatively rare event that typically takes place during moments of political crisis or transition. Should Khamenei appear in person, it would be a defiant challenge to Israel\u2019s industrial scale assassination program.<\/p>\n

His address would also be intended as a morale boost to his supporters, particularly in Lebanon where Hezbollah has been reeling from a string of killings that have eliminated most of its longtime leadership. Chief among these is Nasrallah, an iconic political and religious figure whose influence extended far beyond Palestine and Lebanon. Khamenei has taken a risk in ordering the strikes against Israel, but has seemingly done so to regain some of the leverage that Iran has lost in the face of repeated attacks that passed without reaction.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think they had to show a bigger reaction than they did in April, because clearly that deterred nothing for Israel or the Netanyahu government,\u201d said Majd. \u201cAnd so this time, they felt that the deterrent had to be something that was real.\u201d<\/p>\n

_______________________________________<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a> Jeremy Scahill – <\/strong>Journalist at <\/em>Drop Site News, co-founder of<\/em> The Intercept, author of the books<\/em> Blackwater and<\/em> Dirty Wars. Reported from Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Yemen, etc. <\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Murtaza Hussain is a journalist and political commentator. His work focuses on human rights, foreign policy and cultural affairs. Murtaza\u2019s work has appeared in <\/i>The New York Times<\/em>, <\/i>The Guardian<\/em>, <\/i>The Globe and Mail<\/em>, <\/i>Salon<\/em> and elsewhere.<\/i><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 dropsitenews.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2 Oct 2024 – Yesterday evening, Iran launched a wave of ballistic missile attacks striking sites throughout Israel, in retaliation for its recent assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards officer Abbas Nilforoushan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":276199,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[66],"tags":[87,865,3339,742,88,2097,767,427],"class_list":["post-276240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle-east-north-africa","tag-gaza","tag-genocide","tag-hezbollah","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-lebanon","tag-middle-east","tag-palestine"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/276240","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=276240"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/276240\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":276244,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/276240\/revisions\/276244"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/276199"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=276240"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=276240"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=276240"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}