{"id":285215,"date":"2025-01-20T12:00:31","date_gmt":"2025-01-20T12:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=285215"},"modified":"2025-01-15T06:31:35","modified_gmt":"2025-01-15T06:31:35","slug":"can-nonviolent-struggle-defeat-a-dictator-this-database-emphatically-says-yes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2025\/01\/can-nonviolent-struggle-defeat-a-dictator-this-database-emphatically-says-yes\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Nonviolent Struggle Defeat a Dictator? This Database Emphatically Says Yes"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Hundreds of thousands demonstrating in Berlin on 4 Nov 1989.
(Wikimedia\/Bernd Settnik)<\/p><\/div>\n

The Global Nonviolent Action Database details some 40 cases of mass movements overcoming tyrants through strategic nonviolent campaigns. <\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

8 Jan 2025 <\/em>– With Donald Trump set to take office after a fear-mongering campaign that reignited concerns about his desire to become a dictator, a reasonable question comes up:\u00a0Can nonviolent struggle defeat a tyrant?<\/p>\n

There are many great resources that answer this question, but the one that\u2019s been on my mind lately is the Global Nonviolent Action Database<\/a>, or GNAD, built by the Peace Studies department at Swarthmore College.\u00a0Freely accessible to the public, this database \u2014 which launched under my direction in 2011 \u2014 contains over 1,400 cases of nonviolent struggle from over a hundred countries, with more cases continually being added by student researchers.<\/p>\n

At quick glance, the database details at least 40 cases of dictators who were overthrown by the use of nonviolent struggle, dating back to 1920. These cases \u2014 which include some of the largest nations in the world, spanning Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America \u2014 contradict the widespread assumption that a dictator can only be overcome by violence.\u00a0What\u2019s more, in each of these cases, the dictator had the desire to stay, and possessed violent means for defense. Ultimately, though, they just couldn\u2019t overcome the power of mass nonviolent struggle.<\/p>\n

In a number of countries, the dictator had been embedded for years at the time they were pushed out.\u00a0Egypt\u2019s Hosni Mubarak, for example, had ruled for over 29 years.\u00a0In the 1990s, citizens usually whispered his name for fear of reprisal.\u00a0Mubarak legalized a \u201cstate of emergency,\u201d which meant censorship, expanded police powers and limits on the news media.\u00a0Later, he \u201cloosened\u201d his rule, putting only 10 times as many police as the number of protesters at each demonstration.<\/p>\n

The GNAD case study<\/a> describes how Egyptians grew their democracy movement\u00a0 despite repression, and finally won in 2011. However, gaining a measure of freedom doesn\u2019t guarantee keeping it. As Egypt has shown in the years since, continued vigilance is needed, as is pro-active campaigning to deepen the degree of freedom won.<\/p>\n

Some countries\u00a0repeated\u00a0the feat of nonviolently deposing a ruler: In Chile, the people nonviolently threw out a dictator in 1931<\/a> and then deposed a new dictator in 1988<\/a>.\u00a0South Koreans also did it twice, once in 1960<\/a> and again in 1987<\/a>. (They also just stopped their current president<\/a> from seizing dictatorial powers, but that\u2019s not yet in the database.)<\/p>\n

In each case people had to act without knowing what the reprisals would be.<\/p>\n

East Germany\u2019s peaceful revolution<\/strong><\/h4>\n

When East Germans began their revolt against the German Democratic Republic in 1988, they knew that their dictatorship of 43 years was backed by the Soviet Union, which might stage a deadly invasion. They nevertheless acted for freedom, which they gained and kept.<\/p>\n

Researcher Hanna King tells us that East Germans<\/a> began their successful campaign in January 1988 by taking a traditional annual memorial march and turning it into a full-scale demonstration for human rights and democracy.\u00a0They followed up by taking advantage of a weekly prayer for peace at a church in Leipzig to organize rallies and protests.\u00a0Lutheran pastors helped protect the organizers from retaliation and groups in other cities began to stage their own \u201cMonday night demonstrations.\u201d<\/p>\n

The few hundred initial protesters quickly became 70,000, then 120,000, then 320,000, all participating in the weekly demonstrations.\u00a0Organizers published a pamphlet outlining their vision for a unified German democracy and turned it into a petition.\u00a0Prisoners of conscience began hunger strikes in solidarity.<\/p>\n

By November 1988, a million people gathered in East Berlin, chanting, singing and waving banners calling for the dictatorship\u2019s end.\u00a0The government, hoping to ease the pressure, announced the opening of the border to West Germany.\u00a0Citizens took sledgehammers to the hated Berlin Wall and broke it down.\u00a0Political officials resigned to protest the continued rigidity of the ruling party and the party itself disintegrated.\u00a0By March 1990 \u2014 a bit over two years after the campaign was launched \u2014 the first multi-party, democratic elections were held.<\/p>\n

Students lead the way in Pakistan<\/h4>\n

In Pakistan, it was university students (rather than religious clerics) who launched the 1968-69 uprising that forced Ayub Khan out of office after his decade as a dictator.\u00a0Case researcher Aileen Eisenberg tells us<\/a> that the campaign later required multiple sectors of society to join together to achieve critical mass, especially workers.<\/p>\n

It was the students, though, who took the initiative \u2014 and the initial risks.\u00a0In 1968, they declared that the government\u2019s declaration of a \u201cdecade of development\u201d was a fraud, protesting nonviolently in major cities.\u00a0They sang and marched to their own song called \u201cThe Decade of Sadness.\u201d<\/p>\n

Police opened fire on one of the demonstrations, killing several students.\u00a0In reaction the movement expanded, in numbers and demands.\u00a0Boycotts grew, with masses of people refusing to pay the bus and railway fares on the government-run transportation system.\u00a0Industrial workers joined the movement and practiced encirclement of factories and mills.\u00a0An escalation of government repression followed, including more killings.<\/p>\n

As the campaign expanded from urban to rural parts of Pakistan the movement\u2019s songs and political theater thrived. Khan responded with more violence, which intensified the determination among a critical mass of Pakistanis that it was time for him to go.<\/p>\n

After months of growing direct action met by repressive violence, the army decided its own reputation was being degraded by their orders from the president, and they demanded his resignation.\u00a0He complied and an election was scheduled for 1970 \u2014 the first since Pakistan\u2019s independence in 1947.<\/p>\n

Why use nonviolent struggle?<\/h4>\n

The campaigns in East Germany and Pakistan are typical of all 40 cases in their lack of a pacifist ideology, although some individuals active in the movements had that foundation.\u00a0What the cases do seem to have in common is that the organizers saw the strategic value of nonviolent action, since they were up against an opponent likely to use violent repression.\u00a0Their commitment to nonviolence would then rally the masses to their side.<\/p>\n

That encourages me.\u00a0There\u2019s hardly time in the U.S. during Trump\u2019s regime to convert enough people to an ideological commitment to nonviolence, but there\u00a0is\u00a0time to persuade people of the strategic value of a nonviolent discipline.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s striking that in many of the cases I looked at, the movement\u00a0avoided merely symbolic marches and rallies and instead focused\u00a0on tactics that impose a cost on the regime.\u00a0As Donald Trump wrestles to bring the armed forces under his control, for example, I can imagine picketing army recruiting offices with signs, \u201cDon\u2019t join a dictator\u2019s army.\u201d<\/p>\n

Another important takeaway: Occasional actions that simply protest a particular policy or egregious action aren\u2019t enough. They may relieve an individual\u2019s conscience for a moment,\u00a0but, ultimately, episodic actions, even large ones,\u00a0don\u2019t assert enough power. Over and over, the Global Nonviolent Action Database shows that positive results come from a series of escalating, connected actions called a campaign \u2014 the importance of which<\/a> is also outlined in my book \u201cHow We Win.\u201d<\/p>\n

As research seminar students at Swarthmore continue to wade through history finding new cases, they are digging up details on struggles that go beyond democracy. The 1,400 already-published cases include campaigns for furthering environmental justice, racial and economic justice, and more.\u00a0They are a resource for tactical ideas and strategy considerations, encouraging us to remember that even long-established dictators have been stopped by the power of nonviolent campaigns.<\/p>\n

________________________________________________<\/i><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/span><\/em>George Lakey has been active in direct action campaigns for over six decades. Recently retired from Swarthmore College, he was first arrested in the civil rights movement and most recently in the climate justice movement. He has facilitated 1,500 workshops on five continents and led activist projects on local, national and international levels. His 10 books and many articles reflect his social research into change on community and societal levels. His newest books are<\/i><\/span> Viking Economics: How the Scandinavians Got It Right and How We Can, Too <\/span>(2016), and<\/i><\/span> How We Win: A Guide to Nonviolent Direct Action Campaigning <\/span>(2018).<\/i><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 wagingnonviolence.org<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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