{"id":285699,"date":"2025-02-24T12:00:02","date_gmt":"2025-02-24T12:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=285699"},"modified":"2025-02-04T07:26:18","modified_gmt":"2025-02-04T07:26:18","slug":"political-psychoanalysis-of-donald-j-trumps-presidential-election-victory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2025\/02\/political-psychoanalysis-of-donald-j-trumps-presidential-election-victory\/","title":{"rendered":"Political Psychoanalysis of Donald J. Trump&#8217;s Presidential Election Victory"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p><em>Why did Professor Lichtman\u2019s \u201cPredicting the next president\u201d model get it wrong?<\/em><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h3>Abstract<\/h3>\n<p><em>Jan 2025 &#8211;<\/em> One of the most controversial presidential candidates in history of United States of America, Donald J. Trump secured his second non-consecutive victory in the 2024 US presidential race (Samuels,2024). This can be interpreted also as hard work that Trump and his team have put in place since he begrudgingly left the White House office after one term presidency when he lost to Joe Biden (Street,2024). Trump lifestyle ever since 2021 was driven by the endless campaigning events on virtual platforms or in person settings on every occasion, while he kept his base energized, entertained and motivated, and consolidated the republican party power around himself (Baptist &amp; Clark,2024).<\/p>\n<p>During that election cycle, not only Trump was a convicted felon, who will be historically known as a <em>\u201csworn-in criminally sentenced\u201d <\/em>US president (Finkelstein &amp; Painter,2024) and he\u2019d been indicted in many other cases, and or pending trials (Farrell, 2024). These are significantly unusual circumstances and occurrences in many ways and in many cultures, given that his opponent [Vice President Kamala Haris] was former career prosecutor, an achieved state and federal law enforcement officer, senator and vice-president from California (Harris, Bickham and Broussard,2024).<\/p>\n<p>Thus, a jury convicted, indicted by courts and sentenced felon [ Trump] versus a prosecutor, attorney, senator, a sitting vice-president [Kamala Harris]. In normal circumstances, predicting a winner in this case would have a simple task, so had confidently predicted Professor Alan <em>Lichtman\u2019s \u201cPredicting the next president\u201d <\/em>(Lichtman &amp; Lichtman,2024. However, on November 5<sup>th<\/sup>, 2024, Donald J. Trump was declared victorious, and Kamala Harris the loser as the electoral college results confirmed.<\/p>\n<h3>Objectives<\/h3>\n<p>This paper examines overall the socioeconomic and political behaviour of Americans\u2019 unearthed perceptions during the US presidential campaign, and the leading underlying factors of the election\u2019s outcomes between Donald J. Trump and Kamala Harris in political psychoanalytical lenses and transcultural psychiatry perspectives.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Methods: <\/strong>Psychological analysis of the literature pertaining to the 2024 US elections, socioeconomic perspective, political behaviours and perception of the key voting blocs.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Findings: <\/strong>Perception of<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>gender or misogyny,<\/li>\n<li>international wars and US related policy,<\/li>\n<li>economy, and<\/li>\n<li>immigration issues as threats to Americans played a significant role in voters decision making.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Whilst Trump\u2019s relentless big megaphone echoed into voters\u2019 brain cognitive process system, the Democrats old fashioned strategies of linking left policy and minority voting pattern failed to persuade American voters.<\/p>\n<h3>Conclusion<\/h3>\n<p>Professor Lichtman\u2019s predictions have been excellent for more than 4 decades (Lichtman&amp; Lichtman,2024). During the 2024 US presidential election cycle, he favoured Kamala Harris on some keys, which skewed his predictions, whilst voters\u2019 perception on the keys psychologically favoured Trump instead. These keys were pivotal for voters, such as the \u201c<em>war\u201d <\/em>between Israel and Hamas designated terrorist group in Palestine which may have contributed to the loss of the \u201cblue wall\u201d state of Michigan (Traugott,2024; Ward,2024).<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, the Lichtman\u2019s predictions on the \u201c<em>economy\u201d <\/em>scored great in the book and for incumbent party (Democrats) and for Kamala Harris, but voters\u2019 perception across the nation was the opposite, including the pinch of inflation (Kapoor &amp; Fridell,2024), and they displayed anxiety over the economic situation for the future (Struby &amp; Farhart,2024), which may have cost Kamala Harris the state of Pennsylvania, another \u201cblue wall\u201d commonwealth state in addition to the state of Wisconsin. Undoubtedly, from intersectionality analytical lenses, the <em>\u201cgender\u201d <\/em>perception and or misogyny has been overlooked, as many voters, majority of both genders, women and men didn\u2019t feel that the US was ready for a <em>\u201cblack female\u201d <\/em>president\u2026yet (Cerja et al.,2024; Harris, Bickham and Broussard,2024)!<\/p>\n<p>Last, the power of social media which was a profound and strong conducive machine of misinformation and disinformation which can\u2019t be ignored (Roozenbeek &amp; Van der Linden,2024). It was through that big social media and mainstream far right leaning media megaphone that the \u201cBidenomics\u201d had become a dirty word (even though it has created unprecedented record of more than 16,000,000 jobs nationwide), but American voters believed the alternative reality in many instances (Zienert\u2010Eilts,2024). Unsurprisingly, the war between Ukraine and Russia became a real concern for American voters, whereas asylum seekers (immigrants) were labelled as the greatest threats to the majority of Americans through southern border, threatening the American livelihood, values and beliefs, which can be interpreted as a living with diversity challenges (Kirmayer,2024).<\/p>\n<p>The rhetoric went a bit far to state that there was creation of a terrorist califate in the American neighbourhoods, aiming at killing Americans and taking their jobs and properties, including pets (such as the infamous case of Springfield in Ohio), lands and houses, to framing asylum seekers and fearmongering strategy on American voters (Pashko &amp; Gardikiotis,2024). Thus, immigration in one way the other, become another key factor for voters, both White Caucasians and minority voting groups including Arabs, Black, Latins Americans and alike, as the perception on <em>immigration <\/em>handling favoured Donald J. Trump and republicans in general, not Democrats or Kamala Harris who believed that voters of colour would turn back against Trump.<\/p>\n<h3>Recommendations<\/h3>\n<p>From psychological standpoint, human behaviour can be influenced by perception. Therefore, for the future improvement in predictions, the election predicting tools such as the \u201c13 Keys to the white house\u201d may increase their predictability outcomes in the events perception is taken into consideration for better analysis. The perception may include (a) war, (b) gender, (c) economy and (d) immigration perspectives.<\/p>\n<h3>References<\/h3>\n<p>Baptist, N. K., &amp; Clark, K. A. (2024). Unmasking the authoritarian mob boss: A critical analysis of Donald Trump\u2019s political leadership. <em>Social Sciences<\/em>, <em>13<\/em>(8), 397.<\/p>\n<p>Cerja, C., Nave, N.D., Winfrey, K.L., Helen Palczewski, C. and Hahner, L.A., 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Misogynoir and the public woman: analog and digital sexualization of women in public from the Civil War to the era of Kamala Harris. <em>Quarterly Journal of Speech<\/em>, <em>110<\/em>(1), pp.74-100.<\/p>\n<p>Farrell, T. J. (2024). Thomas B. Edsall on the Convicted Felon Trump, and Walter J. Ong\u2019s Thought. <em>New Explorations<\/em>, <em>4<\/em>(2).<\/p>\n<p>Finkelstein, C. O., &amp; Painter, R. (2024). When an Indicted Candidate Wins the Presidency: What Happens to The Trials If Donald Trump Wins the Election?. <em>Southern California Law Review Postscript [online]<\/em>, 1.<\/p>\n<p>Harris, R.K., Bickham, S.B. and Broussard, J.C., 2024. Intersectionality and the framing of news: A discourse analysis of Black press and mainstream coverage about Vice President Kamala Harris. <em>Journal of Critical Race and Ethnic Studies<\/em>, <em>2<\/em>(1), pp.3-22.<\/p>\n<p>Kapoor, I., &amp; Fridell, G. (2024). Case studies in development politics: psychoanalytic inflections. In <em>Rethinking Development Politics <\/em>(pp. 82-110). Edward Elgar Publishing.<\/p>\n<p>Kirmayer, L. J. (2024). The fragility of truth: Social epistemology in a time of polarization and pandemic. <em>Transcultural Psychiatry<\/em>, <em>61<\/em>(5), 701-713.<\/p>\n<p>Lichtman, A. J., &amp; Lichtman, A. (2024). <em>Predicting the next president: The Keys to the White House, 2024<\/em>. Rowman &amp; Littlefield.<\/p>\n<p>Pashko, A., &amp; Gardikiotis, A. (2024). <em>News Framing Effects on Society <\/em>(Doctoral dissertation, \u0391\u03c1\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03bf\u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03b5\u03b9\u03bf \u03a0\u03b1\u03bd\u03b5\u03c0\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03ae\u03bc\u03b9\u03bf \u0398\u03b5\u03c3\u03c3\u03b1\u03bb\u03bf\u03bd\u03af\u03ba\u03b7\u03c2).<\/p>\n<p>Roozenbeek, J., &amp; Van der Linden, S. (2024). <em>The psychology of misinformation<\/em>. Cambridge University Press.<\/p>\n<p>Samuels, R. (2024). Antisemitism, Free Speech, and the Political Unconscious. In <em>Culture Wars, Universities, and the Political Unconscious <\/em>(pp. 137-151). Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland.<\/p>\n<p>Street, P. (2024). Fear of Violent Retribution. <em>CounterPunch<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Struby, E., &amp; Farhart, C. (2024). Inflation Expectations and Political Polarization: Evidence from the Cooperative Election Study.<\/p>\n<p>Traugott, M. (2024) <em>Voters in Arab American strongholds likely tipped Michigan in Trump\u2019s favor<\/em>, <em>The Conversation<\/em>. Available at: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/voters-in-arab- american-strongholds-likely-tipped-michigan-in-trumps-favor-242854 (Accessed: 19 January 2025).<\/p>\n<p>Ward, A., 2024. <em>The Internationalists: The Fight to Restore American Foreign Policy After Trump<\/em>. Penguin.<\/p>\n<p>Zienert\u2010Eilts, K. J. (2024). The conspiracy narrative \u201cThe Big Lie\u201d\u2014Psychoanalytical considerations on the development of susceptibility to an \u201calternative reality\u201d. <em>International Journal of Applied Psychoanalytic Studies<\/em>, <em>21<\/em>(1), e1845.<\/p>\n<p><em>___________________________________________________<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/claude.shema_.jpg\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-285700 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/claude.shema_-e1737444822150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"100\" height=\"100\" \/><\/a>Claude R. Shema, MD. <\/em><em>Msc(c) psychiatry. Post Graduate Cardiff University School of Medicine, Wales, UK. Dr. Shema is a member of the <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/\" >TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment<\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/127131198\/POLITICAL_PSYCHOANALYSIS_OF_DONALD_J_TRUMPS_SECOND_SURPRISING_PRESIDENTIAL_ELECTION_VICTORY_Why_did_Professor_Lichtmans_Predicting_the_next_president_model_get_it_wrong?email_work_card=title\" >Go to Original &#8211; academia.edu<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><em>FEATURED RESEARCH PAPER<\/em> STAYS POSTED FOR 2 WEEKS BEFORE BEING ARCHIVED<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jan 2025 &#8211; Why did Prof. Lichtman\u2019s \u201cPredicting the next president\u201d model get it wrong?\u00a0One of the most controversial presidential candidates in history, Trump secured his second victory in the 2024 US presidential race. A jury convicted, indicted by courts and sentenced felon [Trump] versus a prosecutor, attorney, senator, sitting vice-president [Kamala Harris].<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":285700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[392,723,249,70],"class_list":["post-285699","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-paper-of-the-week","tag-elections","tag-research","tag-trump","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285699","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=285699"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285699\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":286970,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/285699\/revisions\/286970"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/285700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=285699"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=285699"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=285699"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}