Pashinyan\u2019s initial years saw frequent engagements with Putin\u2014three meetings in 2018 alone\u2014aimed at reassuring Moscow that Armenia\u2019s revolutionary fervor wouldn\u2019t disrupt their alliance. At the May 2018 Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) summit, Pashinyan vowed to strengthen military and economic ties, a stance Putin reciprocated by affirming Armenia\u2019s role as a key regional ally. Russia\u2019s military base in Gyumri and its role as Armenia\u2019s top arms supplier remained pillars of this partnership. Trade flourished, with bilateral exchanges rising from $1.7 billion in 2018 to $2.1 billion by 2020, driven by Armenian exports like brandy and agricultural goods and Russian energy supplies.<\/p>\n
But beneath the surface, tensions brewed. Pashinyan\u2019s liberal leanings and his government\u2019s pro-Western voices clashed with Moscow\u2019s expectations of unwavering loyalty. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war exposed the first cracks: Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, overwhelmed Armenian forces, and Russia\u2019s peacekeepers arrived only after a devastating ceasefire brokered by Putin\u00a0on November 9.The opposition accuses Pashinyan of miscalculating Russia\u2019s willingness to intervene, a risk that cost Artsakh dearly as Azerbaijan reclaimed swathes of territory, displacing thousands.<\/p>\n
A Dangerous Pivot and the Fall of Artsakh (2021\u20132023)<\/strong><\/p>\n The post-war period marked Pashinyan\u2019s boldest shift. Meetings with Putin\u2014like the April 2022 summit in Moscow\u2014maintained a veneer of cooperation, with joint statements touting trade and security ties. Yet, Pashinyan\u2019s actions told a different story. Frustrated by Russia\u2019s restrained response to Azerbaijan\u2019s aggression, he began courting the West. In 2022, Armenia hosted U.S. military drills, and by 2023, Pashinyan suspended participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led alliance, after it failed to aid Armenia during border clashes with Azerbaijan. His September 2023 ratification of the Rome Statute, aligning Armenia with the International Criminal Court (ICC)\u2014which issued an arrest warrant for Putin\u2014ignited Kremlin fury.<\/p>\n These gambles came at a catastrophic price. In September 2023, Azerbaijan\u2019s lightning offensive seized all of Artsakh, ending its decades-long Armenian control and forcing over 100,000 refugees into Armenia proper. The opposition blames Pashinyan\u2019s Western flirtations for alienating Russia, whose peacekeepers stood by as Artsakh fell. Siunik, Armenia\u2019s southern province, now faces heightened risks, with Azerbaijan eyeing the Zangezur corridor to link with Turkey\u2014a move that could sever Armenia\u2019s border with Iran. Pashinyan\u2019s new partnerships with the U.S., France, and India offered no tangible defense, leaving Armenia exposed to Baku\u2019s ambitions.<\/p>\n Hazardous Choices and Western Illusions (2024\u20132025)<\/strong><\/p>\n By 2024, Pashinyan\u2019s rift with Putin widened. His full withdrawal from the CSTO in mid-2024 and a March 13, 2025, peace treaty with Azerbaijan\u2014ceding Artsakh\u2019s legal claim\u2014drew sharp rebukes from Moscow. Putin, meeting Pashinyan at the October 2024 CIS Summit, maintained a diplomatic facade, but Kremlin rhetoric branded Armenia\u2019s Western shift as a betrayal. Pashinyan\u2019s hazardous choices\u2014joint drills with NATO, a draft EU accession bill in January 2025, and arms deals with France\u2014promised security but delivered little. The opposition scorns these moves as delusions, noting the West\u2019s failure to deter Azerbaijan\u2019s February 2025 border incursion, which killed four Armenian soldiers near Siunik.<\/p>\n Russia, distracted by Ukraine, couldn\u2019t\u2014or wouldn\u2019t\u2014fill the void. Yet, Pashinyan\u2019s insistence on diversifying alliances has left Armenia juggling unproven partners against a backdrop of regional volatility. The opposition warns that Siunik\u2019s fate hangs in the balance, with Azerbaijan\u2019s aggression unchecked and Russia\u2019s protective umbrella discarded for Western applause that offers no troops or guarantees.<\/p>\n The Paradox of Booming Trade<\/strong><\/p>\n Amid this political frost, Russo-Armenian trade has soared to bewildering heights. By 2024, bilateral commerce hit $7.2 billion\u2014a 300% leap since 2018\u2014fueled by Armenia\u2019s role as a sanctions-evading hub for Russian goods post-Ukraine war. Exports of Armenian fruits, vegetables, and textiles to Russia doubled, while imports of Russian gas, oil, and machinery surged. In 2025, the EAEU framework, despite Armenia\u2019s CSTO exit, facilitated record trade volumes, with Armenia\u2019s GDP growth pegged at 6.5%\u2014much of it tied to Russian markets. Meetings like the January 2025 Putin-Pashinyan call on EAEU energy integration underscored this economic lifeline.<\/p>\n This boom is a paradox the opposition can\u2019t reconcile. How can Armenia thrive commercially with Russia while Pashinyan dismantles their strategic bond? Critics argue it\u2019s a hollow victory\u2014economic gains dwarfed by the loss of Artsakh and the peril to Siunik. Russia\u2019s economic leverage, they say, mocks Pashinyan\u2019s defiance, proving Armenia\u2019s dependence endures even as political trust collapses.<\/p>\n A Relationship on the Brink<\/strong><\/p>\n As of March 29, 2025, Putin and Pashinyan\u2019s relationship is a shadow of its 2018 promise. Pashinyan\u2019s high-risk foreign policy\u2014abandoning Russia for untested Western ties\u2014has cost Armenia dearly, with Artsakh gone and Siunik vulnerable. His hazardous partnerships have yielded rhetoric, not results, while Azerbaijan\u2019s aggression looms unchecked. Yet, the thriving trade with Russia stands as a baffling counterpoint, a lifeline that mocks the rift between Yerevan and Moscow. For the opposition, this paradox is Pashinyan\u2019s ultimate failure: a leader who gambled Armenia\u2019s security for fleeting gains, leaving the nation richer in trade but poorer in sovereignty\u2014and dangerously adrift.<\/p>\n _____________________________________________<\/p>\n When Nikol Pashinyan swept into power in May 2018 on the crest of Armenia\u2019s Velvet Revolution, his first meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi set an optimistic tone. Pashinyan, a former journalist turned revolutionary, pledged to deepen Armenia\u2019s strategic alliance with Russia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":291345,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[48],"tags":[2183,253,278,172],"class_list":["post-294863","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-in-focus","tag-armenia","tag-putin","tag-russia","tag-west"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/294863","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=294863"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/294863\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":294864,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/294863\/revisions\/294864"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/291345"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=294863"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=294863"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=294863"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Diran-e1743424661586.jpg\")
<\/a> Diran Noubar, an Italian-Armenian born in France, has lived in 11 countries until he moved to Armenia. He is a world-renowned, critically-acclaimed documentary filmmaker and war reporter. Starting in the early 2000\u2019s in New York City, Diran produced and directed over 20 full-length documentary films. He is also a singer\/songwriter and guitarist in his own band and runs a nonprofit charity organization, <\/em>wearemenia.org<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"