{"id":295069,"date":"2025-05-12T12:00:29","date_gmt":"2025-05-12T11:00:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=295069"},"modified":"2025-05-11T14:16:31","modified_gmt":"2025-05-11T13:16:31","slug":"india-pakistan-on-the-brink-but-is-there-a-way-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2025\/05\/india-pakistan-on-the-brink-but-is-there-a-way-back\/","title":{"rendered":"India-Pakistan: On the Brink\u2014But Is There a Way Back?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Zofeen Ebrahim<\/a><\/p>\n

Yahya Shah, guest-house owner and head of Taobat\u2019s hotel association, told IPS over the phone, \u201cTourist season just began, but for two weeks the village feels like a ghost town\u2014everyone\u2019s hit: shopkeepers, eateries, drivers.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Just 2 km from the tense Line of Control (not a legally recognized international border, but a de facto<\/em> border under control of the military on both sides between the\u00a0Indian- and\u00a0Pakistani-controlled parts of the former\u00a0princely state of Jammu and Kashmir), Taobat sits where India\u2019s Kishenganga river crosses into Pakistan\u2014reborn as the Neelum.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tensions spiked after a deadly April 22 attack in the Indian-administered Pahalgam by The Resistance Front, killing 26 people\u201425 Indians and one Nepali.<\/p>\n

India blamed Pakistan for backing TRF, calling it a Lashkar-e-Taiba front. Pakistan denied involvement, urging an independent probe. Meanwhile, pressure mounted on the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, to respond forcefully, as the attackers remained at large two weeks later.<\/p>\n

The question on everyone\u2019s mind \u2014 including Michael Kugelman, a Washington, DC-based South Asia analyst \u2014 is, \u201cHow could such a horrific attack have been carried out on soft targets in one of the most heavily militarized regions in the world?\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Taobat<\/p>\n

Taobat is the last village of Neelum Valley and the place where the Kishenganga River enters Pakistani territory and is called the Neelum river. Credit: Zofeen Ebrahim\/IPS<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

When India crossed the line <\/strong><\/p>\n

On May 7, early morning, the intensity of the animosity between the two since the Pahalgam attack took on a serious turn when India launched a full-fledged series of attacks on Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir.<\/p>\n

India claimed it targeted \u201cterrorist camps\u201d in Pakistan, stating, \u201cNo\u00a0Pakistani military facilities have been targeted<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pakistan\u2019s armed forces have been authorized to take \u201ccorresponding actions\u201d following the strikes, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif\u2019s office\u00a0said following the attack<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Indian attack killed 26 civilians, injuring 46. In addition, the Pakistani army reported downing five Indian jets. In retaliatory attacks by Pakistani forces, at least 10 people have been killed in Indian-administered Kashmir.<\/p>\n

Reuters, quoting<\/a> the local government on the Indian side, admitted that three fighter jets crashed in Jammu and Kashmir hours after India announced it had struck \u201cnine Pakistani terrorist infrastructure sites across the border.\u201d<\/p>\n

The international community has called for restraint, with the United States urging the two sides to \u201ckeep lines of communication open and avoid escalation\u201d the United Kingdom offering \u201cin dialogue, in de-escalation and anything we can do to support that, we are here and willing to do\u2026\u201d United Nations\u2019 Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the international community could not \u201cafford a military confrontation\u201d between the nuclear-armed nations.<\/p>\n

Tensions between India and Pakistan ripple across South Asia.<\/p>\n

\u201cA tense situation between Pakistan and India is always a cause for worry for others in the region,\u201d said Reaz Ahmad, Dhaka Tribune\u2019s editor, with over 30 years of writing about South Asian politics. Bangladeshis only \u201cwant both nations to stop the blame game and tit-for-tat actions that only worsen life for ordinary people.\u201d These unfortunate events, said Ahmed, referring to the war-like situation, show the \u201cpeople deserve far better from their leaders.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Daily<\/p>\n

Daily life in Taobat Bala, about 1.5 km from Taobat. The area isn\u2019t populated; people may work in the area but live in Taobat. Credit: Zofeen Ebrahim\/IPS<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Closed gates, broken pacts<\/strong><\/p>\n

Following the Pahalgam attack, India and Pakistan shut borders, halted visas, expelled visitors, and downgraded missions\u2014familiar moves in past standoffs. But this time, India suspended the 1960 water treaty, prompting Pakistan to threaten withdrawal from the 1972 Simla Agreement.<\/p>\n

Dr. Moonis Ahmar, former chairman of the department of international relations at Karachi University, blamed leaders of both countries for \u201cmisguiding their people\u201d and polarizing them by spewing so much vitriol. \u201cWhat was the point of bringing in the unnecessary \u201cjugular vein\u201d conversation out of the blue?<\/p>\n

\u00a0The \u2018jugular vein\u2019 debate<\/strong><\/p>\n

Recently, Pakistan\u2019s army chief of staff, General Asim Munir\u2019s characterization of Kashmir as Pakistan\u2019s jugular vein at<\/a>\u00a0a diaspora event held just days before the Pahalgam tragedy, was considered provocative and a \u201ctrigger\u201d for the massacre.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut that is what it is, and the general only reiterated the stand taken by the Quaid,\u201d defended Khawaja Muhammad Asif, the country\u2019s defense minister, referring to the country\u2019s founder, Muhammad Ali Jinnah.<\/p>\n

Defining the jugular vein, Asif said Kashmir stirred both deep emotions and economic concerns. Recalling the lesser-known massacre<\/a> of the partition, he said, \u201cThousands of Muslims were massacred in the Jammu region by mobs and paramilitaries led by the army of Dogra ruler Hari Singh,\u201d adding that Muslim villagers from Jammu province were forced to evacuate to West Pakistan and were then accommodated in refugee camps in the districts of Sialkot, Jhelum, Gujrat, and Rawalpindi.<\/p>\n

Asif, a native of Sialkot, emphasized that the economic significance of Kashmir cannot be overstated. \u201cKashmir is our lifeline\u2014all our rivers, including the Jhelum, Sutlej, and even the smaller tributaries flowing through my own hometown, originate there,\u201d he said, acknowledging that India\u2019s recent announcement to withdraw from the pact posed a \u201creal threat.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Village<\/p>\n

Village life in Taobat Bala before the escalation of violence. Credit: Zofeen Ebrahim\/IPS<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

What is the root of conflict?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Over the years many historians from both sides have unraveled the historical, political, and emotional fault lines dividing India and Pakistan since 1947. But Kashmir remains the stumbling block, 78 years later.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt the time of British India\u2019s partition in August 1947, the 565 princely states were given the option to join India, Pakistan, or remain independent\u2014provided their people had the right to decide.\u201d Jammu and Kashmir, a Muslim-majority state ruled by a Hindu king, Maharaja Hari Singh, initially chose to remain independent.<\/p>\n

After tribal militias from Pakistan invaded parts of Jammu and Kashmir in October 1947\u2014reportedly with covert support from Pakistani forces and encouragement from some local Muslims\u2014the situation quickly descended into chaos and violence. Facing the threat, Maharaja Hari Singh signed the Instrument of Accession, ceding the state\u2019s sovereignty to India in exchange for military assistance.<\/p>\n

The Indian government, led by then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, agreed to extend help but asked Hari Singh to sign an Instrument of Accession first. The Raja agreed. The documents conferred a special status on Jammu and Kashmir and allowed it to have its constitution, a flag, and control over internal administration, except in matters of defense, foreign affairs, finance, and communications, and were subsequently enshrined under Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese rules were not just legal provisions; they were a vital protection that ensured that no non-resident could purchase immovable property in the region, and this was done to safeguard the distinct identity, local ownership, and indigenous rights of the Kashmiri people,\u201d explained Naila Altaf Kayani, an expert in Kashmir affairs, speaking to IPS from Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.<\/p>\n

But even before 2019, especially between 1952 and 1986, and through 47 presidential orders, the historical guarantees under the Maharaja\u2019s Instrument of Accession had slowly been diluted and J&K\u2019s special status steadily diminished. \u201cIndia effectively dismantled the State Subject Rules that had long been in place in Jammu and Kashmir,\u201d said Kayani.<\/p>\n

In 2019, India finally scrapped these articles completely, and J&K became a union territory (governed directly by the central government, unlike states, which have their own elected governments with significant autonomy).<\/p>\n

Can India and Pakistan ever make peace?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Both Asif and Ahmar doubt the Kashmir dispute will be resolved in their lifetime. And till that doesn\u2019t happen, the thorn in their side will keep pricking. But what the latter finds befuddling is the \u201cunstable and unpredictable\u201d Pakistan-India relationship. \u201cThe two countries swing between total silence and sudden warmth, with no steady, consistent engagement like most nations maintain,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Ironically, it\u2019s during the lowest points in their relationship that both Indian and Pakistani leaders stand to gain the most politically, said Kugelman. \u201cDelhi can bolster its tough-on-terror stand and reputation as a strong and defiant administration by responding with muscle, and in Pakistan, the civilian and military leaderships, which are not terribly popular, can shore up public support by rallying the country around it in the face of an Indian threat.\u201d<\/p>\n

Forgotten formula or a new peace plan?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ahmar said this is the lowest point in India-Pakistan relations he has ever witnessed.<\/p>\n

However, \u201cif by some miracle General Pervez Musharraf\u2019s out-of-the-box four-point formula gets a shot in the arm,\u201d perhaps we can begin anew, on a friendlier note,\u201d he said, referring to the July 2001 Agra summit, hosted by Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee.<\/p>\n

The four fixes included a gradual demilitarization of troops from both sides; no change in borders but allowing the people of Jammu and Kashmir to move freely across the LoC; self-governance without independence; and a joint supervision mechanism in the region involving India, Pakistan, and Kashmir.<\/p>\n

But until that happens, Ahmar said, it would be best to let the territory be put under international supervision until its fate is decided. \u201cI would say, place the region under the Trusteeship Council of the United Nations for at least 10 years,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Comprising the five permanent UN Security Council members\u2014China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US\u2014the Trusteeship Council aims to guide territories toward self-government or independence, either as separate states or by joining neighboring countries. The last trust territory, Palau, gained independence in October 1994. \u201cThe Trusteeship Council may have completed its mission in Palau but continues to exist on paper, under the UN Charter, chapter XII,\u201d added Ahmar.<\/p>\n

Columnist Munazza Siddiqui, also executive producer at Geo News, a private TV channel, advocated for yet another option: \u201cTurn the LoC into a Working Boundary (a temporary, informally demarcated line used to separate areas, often in disputed regions or during a ceasefire, but different from the LoC, which is a military control line; something in-between the LoC and an international border), similar to the one that exists between Pakistan\u2019s Punjab and Indian-administered J&K, as recognized under UN arrangements.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe idea is to then shift focus towards bilateral cooperation in other areas,\u201d she pointed out, adding, \u201cThis approach can hopefully help de-escalate the violence historically associated with the Kashmir issue.\u201d<\/p>\n

IPS UN Bureau Report<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Zofeen Ebrahim is a Karachi-based journalist who has been working independently since 2001, contributing to English dailies, including Dawn and The News, and current affairs monthly magazines, including Herald and Newsline, as well as the online paper Dawn.com. In between, Zofeen consults for various NGOs and INGOs. Prior to working as a freelance journalist, Zofeen worked for Pakistan\u2019s widely circulated English daily, Dawn, as a feature writer. In all, Zofeen\u2019s journalism career spans over 24 years and she has been commended nationwide and internationally for her work. | Twitter <\/a>|<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Zofeen Ebrahim Yahya Shah, guest-house owner and head of Taobat\u2019s hotel association, told IPS over the phone, \u201cTourist season just began, but for two weeks the village feels like a ghost town\u2014everyone\u2019s hit: shopkeepers, eateries, drivers.\u201d Just 2 km from the tense Line of Control (not a legally recognized international border, but a de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":295070,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[50],"tags":[267,126,965,481,75],"class_list":["post-295069","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-geopolitics","tag-violence","tag-war-crimes","tag-warfare","tag-world"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/295069","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=295069"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/295069\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":295071,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/295069\/revisions\/295071"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/295070"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=295069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=295069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=295069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}