{"id":310205,"date":"2025-12-22T12:00:12","date_gmt":"2025-12-22T12:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=310205"},"modified":"2025-12-18T13:11:35","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T13:11:35","slug":"everything-the-trump-administration-is-doing-in-venezuela-involves-oil-and-regime-change-even-if-the-white-house-wont-admit-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2025\/12\/everything-the-trump-administration-is-doing-in-venezuela-involves-oil-and-regime-change-even-if-the-white-house-wont-admit-it\/","title":{"rendered":"Everything the Trump Administration Is Doing in Venezuela Involves Oil and Regime Change\u2014Even if the White House Won\u2019t Admit It"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

A member of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces holds an “Igla-S” rocket launcher during a military ceremony commemorating the 200th anniversary of the presentation of the ‘Sword of Peru’ to Venezuelan independence hero Sim\u00f3n Bol\u00edvar on November 25, 2025, in Caracas, Venezuela. The United States recently designated the “Cartel De Los Soles” (Cartel of The Suns) as a foreign terrorist organization, a group allegedly led by the president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, and which, it is presumed, includes high-ranking members of the Venezuelan government.<\/p><\/div>\n

14 Dec 2025\u00a0<\/em>– The U.S. seizure of a massive oil tanker offshore of Venezuela this week represented a brazen escalation of the Trump administration\u2019s repeated military incursions in the area. It\u2019s also a broader sign of the increasing involvement of the U.S. in South America\u2019s petroleum politics.<\/p>\n

\n

The U.S. paces the world in oil and gas production, but President Trump\u2019s new national security strategy\u2014the so-called \u201cTrump corollary\u201d\u2014emphasizes greater U.S. control of the Western Hemisphere, including much more influence over South America, which increasingly leads the globe in new oil output growth. Almost everything the Trump administration is doing in South America\u2014from pressuring Venezuela to a $20 billion Argentina bailout to defending Guyana\u2019s territorial waters\u2014is at least related to the black gold that is crude oil.<\/p>\n

While the White House emphasizes national security concerns over drug trafficking and immigration as it bombs boats and kills more than 80 people thus far in repeated, legally questionable actions, Venezuela is home to the world\u2019s largest proven oil reserves. Regime change and new laws opening Venezuelan oil to more U.S. and foreign investment could lead to much greater oil flows.<\/p>\n

And, remember, Trump is a big fan of controlling oil volumes in order to lower prices at the pump\u2014a major political bellwether for him\u2014without having to lean on OPEC.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the next five years, we\u2019re going to see a lot more oil coming from South America,\u201d said Jorge Le\u00f3n, head of geopolitical analysis for the Rystad Energy research firm. \u201cI think there is going to be a growing U.S. influence in the region to attract foreign and American companies, sort of like what happened in the 1980s when there were a lot of U.S. players in South America. I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if you see a new wave of companies flying back there to unlock this massive oil potential.\u201d<\/p>\n

If Trump has his way and forces Maduro out, the U.S. also could see a lot more investment in Venezuelan oil, which is a heavier crude grade favored by American oil refineries even over U.S. crude, Le\u00f3n told Fortune<\/em>. That\u2019s a big \u201cif,\u201d however. Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro will likely resist tooth and nail. He has already insisted his nation won\u2019t become a U.S. \u201coil colony\u201d and accused Trump of piracy.<\/p>\n

Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University\u2019s Baker Institute for Public Policy, said oil is a \u201cpiece of the puzzle\u201d in all of Trump\u2019s interventions in Venezuela and the broader continent, but not necessarily the key motivating factor.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump does have the view that he can control the mineral reserves,\u201d Monaldi said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt seems part of [Trump\u2019s] notion for some sort of new Monroe Doctrine. Some call it the \u2018Donroe\u2019 Doctrine,\u201d Monaldi said. \u201cHe basically wants the U.S to have a predominant role in the region in terms of raw materials and to limit the role of geopolitical rivals, like China, which is challenging.\u201d<\/p>\n

The domestic U.S. oil business is maturing and showing signs of plateauing, Monaldi said, and the U.S. wants more control of global petroleum outside of the Middle East and Russia. Companies such as Exxon Mobil<\/a> and Chevron<\/a> already are helping to grow South American production at a time when the continent\u2019s politics are leaning more to the right\u2014coincidentally or not.<\/p>\n

\u201cBottom line, the region could become much more aligned with President Trump,\u201d Monaldi said. \u201cNot so long ago, the region was absolutely ruled by the left or the hard left, which was super anti-American.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n
\"A<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

Intense Venezuela focus<\/h2>\n

Home to the world\u2019s largest proven oil reserves but less than 1% of global oil production, Venezuela is arguably the planet\u2019s biggest underachiever from a petroleum extraction perspective.<\/p>\n

Once a major player churning out nearly 4 million barrels of oil daily, Venezuela\u2019s volumes have plunged from 3.2 million barrels daily in 2000 down to about 960,000 barrels today under the authoritarian socialist regimes of Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Ch\u00e1vez, from a combination of mismanagement, underinvestment, and escalating U.S. sanctions.<\/p>\n

Outside of arguably Iran, no country gets under Trump\u2019s skin more than Venezuela in either of Trump\u2019s presidential terms thus far. Repeated sanctions and threats have failed to force Maduro out of office thus far.<\/p>\n

And, while the Trump administration may truly be most focused on drugs and immigration, Monaldi said, Venezuela and its rich Orinoco Oil Belt represent a key geopolitical tool.<\/p>\n

\u201cVenezuela looks like a very important piece of the puzzle. It\u2019s removed from the geopolitical areas that are problematic [in the Eastern Hemisphere],\u201d Monaldi said. \u201cThe oil reserves are there, and the geological risks are pretty low. The problems in Venezuela are above ground.<\/p>\n

\u201cVenezuela could be producing four times or even five times as much oil\u2014at least technically. This requires tens of billions of dollars in investments.\u201d<\/p>\n

Starting this fall, the U.S. has launched more than 20 known strikes against boats in the Venezuelan area, killing more than 80 people. The administration insists, without providing evidence, that the boats are trafficking drugs. Trump has built up a military force in the region, sending the U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier to the Caribbean with a host of fighter jets and guided-missile destroyers.<\/p>\n

On December 10, in another escalation, the U.S. seized the sanctioned oil tanker Skipper for allegedly making repeated, illegal shipments of Venezuelan and Iranian oil. The tanker was placed under U.S. sanctions under a different name in 2022 for its shipments of Iranian crude. The administration is threatening to seize more tankers going forward, potentially further crippling the Venezuelan economy.<\/p>\n

In a new Politico interview, Trump said Maduro\u2019s \u201cdays are numbered,\u201d but he declined to comment on a potential land invasion of Venezuela.<\/p>\n

When asked about the involvement of oil, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly would only say in a statement that Trump is focused on stopping the \u201cnarcoterrorists bringing deadly poison\u201d to the U.S. \u201cThe President will continue to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding into our country,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n

The corporate role<\/h2>\n

In July, Trump granted Chevron a new, restricted license to produce oil in Venezuela. As the only U.S. oil producer in the country\u2014Chevron has worked in Venezuela for a century\u2014Chevron produces about 25% of Venezuela\u2019s crude with state oil company PDVSA. However, Venezuela ships about 80% of its oil to China under deep discounts because of U.S. sanctions.<\/p>\n

In a Washington, D.C. conference in November, Chevron Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth said the geopolitical circumstances are difficult, but Venezuela\u2019s potential is worth the effort. \u201cThe kinds of swings that you see in places like Venezuela are challenging. But we play a long game. Venezuela is blessed with a lot of geologic resource and bounty. And\u00a0we are committed to the people of the country and would like to be there as part of rebuilding Venezuela\u2019s economy in time when circumstances change.\u201d<\/p>\n

In a statement, Chevron spokesman Bill Turenne added that its Venezuela \u201cpresence continues to be a stabilizing force for the\u00a0local economy, the region, and U.S. energy security.\u201d<\/p>\n

Matt Reed, vice president of the geopolitical and energy consultancy Foreign Reports, said much of the focus on Venezuelan oil involves hawkish Republican politicians and Maduro\u2019s opponents in Venezuela arguing for even greater U.S. military intervention.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey are trying to convince Trump to jump in with both feet and get rid of Maduro, making the argument there are also economic incentives with oil,\u201d Reed said. \u201cThey\u2019re the ones pushing the idea that American companies are going to profit in the long run if they can get access to Venezuelan oil resources.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump certainly wants to get rid of Maduro and unlock Venezuela\u2019s oil potential, Reed said, but\u2014despite his oft-erratic whims\u2014he prefers to do so without a repeat of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq.<\/p>\n

\u201cGetting involved in regime change in Venezuela would probably be the most ambitious military mission he would be involved in, which is why I don\u2019t think he\u2019s going to overcommit,\u201d Reed said of Trump. \u201cI think what he wants to do is tighten the noose and make Maduro untenable\u2014make sure everyone understands that maybe the U.S. and Venezuela can turn the page once he\u2019s out of the picture.\u201d<\/p>\n

________________________________________<\/p>\n

\n

\"\"<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Jordan Blum is the Energy editor at <\/em>Fortune, overseeing coverage of a growing global energy sector for oil and gas, transition businesses, renewables, and critical minerals.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Go to Original – fortune.com<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

14 Dec 2025 – The White House emphasizes national security over drug trafficking and immigration as it bombs boats and kills more than 80 people in legally questionable actions, Venezuela has the world\u2019s largest oil reserves. Regime change opening Venezuelan oil to more U.S. investment could lead to greater oil flows.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":310206,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[867,1441,417,1126,1050,629,541,559,3324,2111,923,2137,249,70,557],"class_list":["post-310205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-anglo-america","tag-anglo-america","tag-big-oil","tag-bullying","tag-hegemony","tag-imperialism","tag-international-law","tag-latin-america-caribbean","tag-maduro","tag-north-america","tag-piracy","tag-sanctions","tag-south-america","tag-trump","tag-usa","tag-venezuela"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/310205","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=310205"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/310205\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":310208,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/310205\/revisions\/310208"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/310206"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=310205"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=310205"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=310205"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}