{"id":312943,"date":"2026-02-09T12:00:37","date_gmt":"2026-02-09T12:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=312943"},"modified":"2026-02-06T13:35:21","modified_gmt":"2026-02-06T13:35:21","slug":"the-only-remaining-us-russia-nuclear-treaty-expires-this-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2026\/02\/the-only-remaining-us-russia-nuclear-treaty-expires-this-week\/","title":{"rendered":"The only Remaining US-Russia Nuclear Treaty Expires This Week"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_312945\" style=\"width: 710px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/nuclear-arms-treaty-start-scaled.avif\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-312945\" class=\"wp-image-312945\" src=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/nuclear-arms-treaty-start-1024x341.avif\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"233\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/nuclear-arms-treaty-start-1024x341.avif 1024w, https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/nuclear-arms-treaty-start-300x100.avif 300w, https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/nuclear-arms-treaty-start-768x256.avif 768w, https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/nuclear-arms-treaty-start-1536x512.avif 1536w, https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/nuclear-arms-treaty-start-2048x683.avif 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-312945\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Russian RS-24 Yars ballistic missiles roll through Red Square during a Victory Day military parade in 2020.<br \/>Alexander Zemlianichenko\/AP<\/p><\/div>\n<blockquote><p><em>Could a New Arms Race Soon\u00a0Accelerate? <\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><em>1 Feb 2026\u00a0<\/em>&#8211;\u00a0The New START treaty, the last remaining agreement constraining Russian and US nuclear weapons, is due to lapse on February 4.<\/p>\n<p>There are no negotiations to extend the terms of the treaty, either. As US President Donald Trump <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2026\/01\/08\/us\/trump-nyt-interview\" >said dismissively in a recent interview<\/a>, \u201cif it expires, it expires\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>The importance of the New START treaty is hard to overstate. As other nuclear treaties have been abrogated in recent years, this was the only deal left with notification, inspection, verification and treaty compliance mechanisms between Russia and the US. Between them, they possess <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.icanw.org\/nuclear_arsenals\" >87% of the world\u2019s nuclear weapons<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The demise of the treaty will bring a definitive and alarming end to nuclear restraint between the two powers. It may very well <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/thebulletin.org\/doomsday-clock\/2026-statement\/\" >accelerate the global nuclear arms race<\/a>, too.<\/p>\n<h2>What is New START?<\/h2>\n<p>The <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/2017-2021.state.gov\/11-205\" >New START<\/a> or Prague Treaty was signed by then-US President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart, Dimitri Medvedev, in Prague on April 8, 2010. It entered into force the following year.<\/p>\n<p>It superseded a 2002 treaty that obligated Russia and the United States to reduce their operationally deployed, strategic nuclear warheads to between 1,700 and 2,200 by the end of 2012.<\/p>\n<p>The New START Treaty called for further reductions on long-range nuclear weapons and provided greater specificity about different types of launchers. The new limits were:<\/p>\n<p>700 deployed intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (together with heavy bombers)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>1,550 nuclear warheads deployed on those platforms, and<\/li>\n<li>800 launchers (both deployed and non-deployed).<\/li>\n<li>These reductions were achieved by February 5, 2018.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The treaty included mechanisms for compliance and verification, which have worked effectively. It provided for twice-yearly exchanges of data and ongoing mutual notification about the movement of strategic nuclear forces, which in practice occurred on a nearly daily basis.<\/p>\n<p>Importantly, the treaty also mandated short-notice, on-site inspections of missiles, warheads and launchers covered by the treaty, providing valuable and stabilising insights into the other\u2019s nuclear deployments.<\/p>\n<p>Lastly, the treaty established a bilateral consultative commission and clear procedures to resolve questions or disputes.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/DarylGKimball\/status\/2015892031218872798\" >https:\/\/x.com\/DarylGKimball\/status\/2015892031218872798<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2>Limitations of the deal<\/h2>\n<p>The treaty was criticised at the time for its modest reductions and the limited types of nuclear weapons it covered.<\/p>\n<p>But the most enduring downside was the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/nonproliferation.org\/new-start-ratification-a-bittersweet-success\/\" >political price<\/a> Obama paid to achieve ratification by the US Senate.<\/p>\n<p>To secure sufficient Republican support, he agreed to a long-term program of renewal and modernisation of the entire US nuclear arsenal \u2013 in addition to the facilities and programs that produce and maintain nuclear weapons. The overall pricetag was estimated to reach well over <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reachingcriticalwill.org\/resources\/publications-and-research\/publications\/15669-assuring-destruction-forever-2022\" >US$2 trillion<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This has arguably done more harm by entrenching the United States\u2019 possession of nuclear weapons and thwarting prospects for disarmament.<\/p>\n<p>As the New START treaty was about to expire in 2021, Russia offered to extend it for another five years, as allowed under the terms. US President Donald Trump, however, refused to reciprocate.<\/p>\n<p>After winning the 2020 US presidential election, Joe Biden did agree to extend the treaty on February 3, 2021, just two days before it would have expired. The treaty does not provide for any further extensions.<\/p>\n<p>In February 2023, Russia suspended its implementation of key aspects of the treaty, including stockpile data exchange and on-site inspections. It did not formally withdraw, however, and committed to continue to abide by the treaty\u2019s numerical limits on warheads, missiles and launchers.<\/p>\n<h2>What could happen next<\/h2>\n<p>With the imminent expiry of the treaty this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in September 2025 that he was prepared to continue observing the numerical limits for one more year if the US acted similarly.<\/p>\n<p>Besides an off-the-cuff <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.themoscowtimes.com\/2025\/10\/06\/trump-suggests-willing-to-extend-arms-control-deal-with-russia-a90724\" >comment<\/a> by Trump \u2013 \u201cit sounds like a good idea to me\u201d \u2013 the US did not formally respond to the Russian offer.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has further complicated matters by insisting that negotiations on any future nuclear arms control agreements include China. However, China has consistently refused this. There is also no precedent for such trilateral nuclear control or disarmament negotiations, which would no doubt be long and complex. Though growing, China\u2019s arsenal is still <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/fas.org\/initiative\/status-world-nuclear-forces\/\" >less than 12%<\/a> the size of the US arsenal and less than 11% the size of Russia\u2019s.<\/p>\n<p>The New START treaty now looks set to expire without any agreement to continue to observe its limits until a successor treaty is negotiated.<\/p>\n<p>This means Russia and the US <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/fas.org\/publication\/if-arms-control-collapses-us-and-russian-strategic-nuclear-arsenals-could-double-in-size\/\" >could increase<\/a> their deployed warheads by 60% and 110%, respectively, within a matter of months. This is because both have the capacity to load a larger number of warheads on their missiles and bombers than they currently do. Both countries also have large numbers of warheads in reserve or slated for dismantlement, but still intact.<\/p>\n<p>If they took these steps, both countries could effectively double their deployed strategic nuclear arsenals.<\/p>\n<p>The end of the treaty\u2019s verification, data exchanges, and compliance and notification processes would also lead to increased uncertainty and distrust. This, in turn, could lead to a further build-up of both countries\u2019 already gargantuan military capabilities.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ForeignPolicy\/status\/2015515104742191108\" >https:\/\/x.com\/ForeignPolicy\/status\/2015515104742191108<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2>An ominous warning<\/h2>\n<p>The most unsettling part of this development: it means nuclear disarmament, and even more modest arms control, is now moribund.<\/p>\n<p>No new negotiations for disarmament or even reducing nuclear risks are currently under way. None are scheduled to begin.<\/p>\n<p>At a minimum, after New START expires this week, both Russia and the US should agree to <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theelders.org\/news\/expiration-new-start-threatens-our-collective-security\" >stick to its limits<\/a> until they negotiate further reductions.<\/p>\n<p>And, 56 years after making a binding commitment in the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/disarmament.unoda.org\/en\/our-work\/weapons-mass-destruction\/nuclear-weapons\/treaty-non-proliferation-nuclear-weapons#:%7E:text=The%20NPT%20is%20a%20landmark,peaceful%20uses%20of%20nuclear%20energy\" >nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty<\/a> to achieve nuclear disarmament, both nations should work to implement a verifiable agreement among all nuclear-armed states to eliminate their arsenals.<\/p>\n<p>But Russia, the US and and other nuclear-armed states are moving in the opposite direction.<\/p>\n<p>Trump\u2019s actions since taking office a second time \u2013 from bombing Iran to toppling Venezuela\u2019s leader \u2013 show his general disdain for international law and treaties. They also affirm his desire to use any instrument of power to assert US (and his personal) interests and supremacy.<\/p>\n<p>Putin, meanwhile, has <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/08\/world\/europe\/russia-ukraine-nuclear-capable-missile.html\" >used of a nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile<\/a> to strike Ukraine, made <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2025\/dec\/30\/russia-claims-moved-nuclear-capable-missile-system-belarus\" >repeated threats<\/a> to use nuclear weapons against Kyiv and the West, and continued his unprecedented and profoundly dangerous <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aspistrategist.org.au\/war-risks-from-nuclear-power-plants-just-look-at-zaporizhzhia\/\" >weaponisation of Ukraine\u2019s nuclear power plants<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>These moves signal a more aggressive Russian stance that rides roughshod over the UN Charter, as well.<\/p>\n<p>All of this bodes ill for preventing nuclear war and making progress on nuclear disarmament.<\/p>\n<p>__________________________________________________<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Tilman-Ruff.jpeg\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-312944 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Tilman-Ruff-e1770383687635.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"100\" height=\"100\" \/><\/a><em>Tilman Ruff is affiliated with International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, the Medical Association for Prevention of War, Doctors for the Environment Australia and the Public Health Association of Australia. Honorary Principal Fellow, School of Population and Global Health, the University of Melbourne.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-only-remaining-us-russia-nuclear-treaty-expires-this-week-could-a-new-arms-race-soon-accelerate-269508\" >Go to Original &#8211; theconversation.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>1 Feb 2026\u00a0&#8211;\u00a0The New START treaty, the last remaining agreement constraining Russian and US nuclear weapons, is due to lapse on February 4. Could a New Arms Race Soon\u00a0Accelerate?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":312946,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[68],"tags":[1188,450,278,1838,70],"class_list":["post-312943","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-weapons-of-mass-destruction","tag-arms-race","tag-nuclear-weapons","tag-russia","tag-start","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/312943","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=312943"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/312943\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":312947,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/312943\/revisions\/312947"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/312946"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=312943"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=312943"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=312943"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}