{"id":315875,"date":"2026-05-11T12:00:21","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T11:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=315875"},"modified":"2026-05-06T09:10:44","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T08:10:44","slug":"us-sanctions-and-the-sharp-rise-in-infant-mortality-in-cuba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2026\/05\/us-sanctions-and-the-sharp-rise-in-infant-mortality-in-cuba\/","title":{"rendered":"US Sanctions and the Sharp Rise in Infant Mortality in Cuba"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Executive Summary<\/h4>\n

27 Apr 2026 – <\/em>A country\u2019s infant mortality rate (IMR) is often considered a key barometer for a population\u2019s overall health as well as its access to quality health care.1<\/a><\/sup> In Cuba, where for decades the state has invested substantially in health care services, the IMR was, until recently, among the lowest in the Western Hemisphere and lower than in the US. Since 2018, however, Cuba\u2019s IMR has increased from an annual rate of 4.0 per 1,000 live births to a rate of 9.9 as of 2025,2<\/a><\/sup> representing an increase of 148 percent. If the rate of infant mortality had remained unchanged, then approximately 1,800 fewer babies would have died since 2018.<\/p>\n

This striking increase in Cuba\u2019s IMR, which is at variance with trends seen in other countries in the region, has taken place over a period (2017\u20132025) that has seen an unprecedented expansion and tightening of the US commercial and financial embargo that has been in place since the early 1960s. It is worth noting that, in the years following the global COVID-19 pandemic and again in contrast with nearly all of its regional neighbors, Cuba failed to experience a substantial economic rebound, averaging 0.4 percent annual per capita GDP growth between 2020 and 2024 versus 3.2 percent for the Latin American and Caribbean region as a whole.3<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

Recent studies show a strong causal relationship between sanctions imposed and increased death rates. In August 2025, a Lancet Global Health<\/i> study estimated, based on a panel regression incorporating data from 152 countries, that broad, unilateral sanctions resulted in approximately 564,000 deaths annually over the years 2012\u20132021.4<\/a><\/sup> The study also found that children under five years old accounted for 51 percent of these deaths. Infant mortality is generally about three-quarters of under-five mortality. These numbers therefore reflect a profound disproportionality in the impact of sanctions on infants and children under five years of age as compared with other age groups; infants are only about 1.6 percent of the world population.5<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

Sanction measures adopted by US administrations since 2017 are designed to cause economic damage to Cuba by further reducing its access to foreign exchange and international financial markets; such measures can, and appear intended to, cause recessions, depressions, balance of payments crises, and higher inflation, even hyperinflation \u2014 as similar sanctions have done in other countries. A 2022 paper published by the Bank for International Settlements found that \u201cchild mortality rises in a highly significant way in recessions in EMDEs [emerging market and developing economies], by about 6 deaths per 1000 births.\u201d6<\/a><\/sup> Again, these numbers are for mortality of children under five years old. As mentioned above, about three-quarters of this mortality in the world is infant mortality, so this study implies that a recession would increase mortality by 4.5 deaths per 1,000 births. This is most of the increase that the data show for Cuba (from 4.0 to 9.9, so an additional 5.9 deaths per 1,000 births).<\/p>\n

The unparalleled hardening of US sanctions against Cuba during the first Trump administration, the Biden administration\u2019s decision to largely maintain these policies, and the further expansion of sanctions during the second Trump administration, including a devastating fuel blockade, is very likely the primary cause of the current economic and humanitarian crisis in Cuba, which is widely considered to be the worst in the island\u2019s contemporary history.<\/p>\n

Among the most harmful measures imposed over the last eight years are the following:<\/p>\n