Al-Shabaab remained one of the factions active in Mogadishu until the summer of 2011. But then they were kicked out of the capital and also kicked out of the port of Kismayu, their main base, later in 2012. AMISOM \u2013 the not-exactly-peacekeeping, somewhat fighting forces of Kenya, Ethiopia and Uganda, among others, under the umbrella of the African Union \u2013 was gradually ramping up the pressure.<\/p>\n
Al-Shabaab\u2019s power base remains unbelievably poor rural Somalia. Until recently the group was led mostly by Somali clan elders. A smatter of foreign jihadis with ground experience from Afghanistan to the Maghreb is to be found. But the bulk of the fighting force is essentially composed of bored teenagers bought by roughly $300 and the vision of meeting 72 virgins in paradise.<\/p>\n
The crucial al-Shabaab\/Al-Qaeda link also dates from 2012. Some al-Shabaab leaders not only disagreed, but decided to vote with their feet. After all, al-Shabaab had always been essentially about Somali nationalism.<\/p>\n
Al-Shabaab\u2019s internal split is crucial to understand the full picture. After important defections and certainly gruesome executions, for the past three months Emir Abu Zubayr seems to be fully in charge. He is not a Somali nationalist, like the defectors; he wants to pursue the aiming-for-a-globalized-emirate Al-Qaeda way.<\/p>\n
What is Kenya up to? <\/b><\/p>\n
Al-Shabaab duly claimed the attack on Westgate mall via their Twitter account. A fog of witnesses claim the attackers did not speak Swahili, but Arabic or Somali; some were disguised as women; and they might have even included a notorious female British jihadi, the so-called \u201cwhite widow\u201d Samantha Lewthwaite. In sum: a mini-Jihad Inc.<\/p>\n
Al-Shabaab stressed only \u201cinfidels\u201d were killed in the raid, and made sure this was revenge against invading Kenyan troops active in Somalia since 2011. Previous attacks in Mogadishu this year featured a car bomb and a suicide bomber, but no attempt to take hostages. Here<\/a> is an excellent summary of why Kenya, and why now, written by the son of my late friend and former Asia Times editor Tony Allison.<\/p>\n Nairobi\u2019s long game is to protect its two key industries \u2013 the safari trail and shipping (centered on the port of Mombasa). This has evolved into the strategy of creating a buffer state in southern Somalia. Not by accident, in this region, Jubaland, a lot of unexplored oil wealth is the key part of the story.<\/p>\n That\u2019s the background for the Kenyan invasion of southern Somalia in 2011 – when al-Shabaab was kicked out of Kismayu. Very important; the US and France were key in the military support department. Kenya\u2019s army, frankly, is a joke, and would never pull it off by itself. The invasion was effusively hailed in the West and \u2013 where else? – the UN Security Council.<\/p>\n It’s because Kenya expelled al-Shabaab from Kismayu that AMISOM managed to further secure Mogadishu \u2013 with Kenyan troops included in the mix. And yet, also predictably, Kenya\u2019s adventure in southern Somalia was seen by most Somalis as an occupation, not a liberation.<\/p>\n Image by Nicolay Sidorov<\/p><\/div>\n So here we find the embryo of blowback. The Kenyan invasion managed to fire up Somali popular support for al-Shabaab all over again; people even forgot that for a long while al-Shabaab chose to let Somalis die in droves, victims of famine, instead of accepting Western aid.<\/p>\n Thus Kenya acting as a US-France puppet ultimately provoked the Westgate mall blowback. Not to mention that Washington has been droning Somalia non-stop from a base in neighboring Djibouti.<\/p>\n Dick Cheney\u2019s Al-Qaeda dream <\/b><\/p>\n But all this is only part of the story. For the Big Picture, we need to go back to NATO\u2019s \u2018humanitarian\u2019 bombing of Libya into a failed state; a development that spawned the Libya-Syria connection.<\/p>\n We need to remember that Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) had merged with the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) in 2007; this was announced by Ayman al-Zawahiri himself. After the destruction of Libya, AQIM invaded northern Mali \u2013 which led to yet another French delirium of grandeur. And then the LIFG, now \u2018supported\u2019 by NATO, activated the connection with Syria \u2013 with jihadis, funds and weapons fueling non-stop the so-called \u2018Free\u2019 Syrian Army.<\/p>\n In parallel, al-Shabaab also connected to the LIFG and AQIM; and, ultimately, they all connected with – guess who – Al-Nusra Front in Syria. Even the head of AFRICOM, Gen. Carter Ham, had to admit<\/a> part of the story in 2012.<\/p>\n In fact this was no admission; it was supposed to happen. NATO propelling the Libya-Syria connection would inevitably expand Al- Qaeda\u2019s operational reach, from AQIM to AQAP and by extension al-Shabaab. The serpent bites its own tail; a Western military offensive leads to scattered jihadi response; blowback ensues; and thus the need for more Western military muscle, ad infinitum.<\/p>\n So yes; LIFG, AQIM, AQAP, Boko Haram in Nigeria, al-Shabaab, Al-Nusra Front; this acronym\/branding spectacular is all interconnected. When manipulated by the US and asserted European poodles as a geopolitical switch \u2013 which can be turned on and off \u2013 it works wonders.<\/p>\n From Washington\u2019s point of view, to have it reactivated on and off is essential to keep the so-called \u201clight footprint\u201d in Africa, which Nick Turse conclusively demonstrated<\/a> is anything but light.<\/p>\n Whenever jihadi blowback happens, that\u2019s perfect to ramp up Western hysteria \u2013 and demonization of Muslims in general. Moreover, the Westgate mall attack will be the perfect pretext to ramp up US and UK \u2018efforts\u2019 inside Somalia. Shady \u2018foreign assistance teams\u2019 from the US, UK and Israel, after all, are already in place and crucially deploying from bases in Kenya.<\/p>\n Somalis who have nothing to do with al-Shabaab may and will pay the price \u2013 as much as Syrians who detest Al-Nusra Front are victims of the West\u2019s blind, blank support of \u2018rebels\u2019. Dick Cheney must feel vindicated; the West is finally consolidating his \u2018vision\u2019 of Al-Qaeda as a mercenary shadow army disguised as global Terror Inc. And everything\u2019s under control, of course. Except the wretched \u2018collateral damage\u2019 caught in the crossfire.<\/p>\n _________________________<\/p>\n Pepe Escobar is the roving correspondent for Asia Times\/Hong Kong, an analyst for RT and TomDispatch, and a frequent contributor to websites and radio shows ranging from the US to East Asia. <\/i><\/p>\n![\"Image](\"http:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/MAPA-283x300.jpg\")
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