Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Saudi intelligence chief Bandar are going head-to-head against U.S. President Obama and Russian President Putin on resolving crises in Iran and Syria.<\/i><\/p>\n
In pressing for negotiated settlements to the Iranian nuclear dispute and the Syrian civil war, President Barack Obama is challenging the imposing lobbying, propaganda and financial clout of the new Saudi-Israeli alliance, with the future direction of U.S. foreign policy \u2013 and geopolitical stability \u2013 at stake.<\/p>\n
Already, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pulling the strings of his media and congressional marionettes, creating opposition to Obama\u2019s diplomatic initiatives. Meanwhile, the Saudi monarchy has gone to unprecedented lengths to register its disapproval of Obama\u2019s peace initiatives, even rejecting a two-year seat on the United Nations Security Council.<\/p>\n
The Saudis also have made sounds about possibly acquiring their own nuclear bomb from Pakistan, which developed the Bomb during the Reagan-Bush-41 administrations with the help of Saudi financing.<\/p>\n
Citing \u201ca senior NATO decision maker,\u201d Mark Urban, diplomatic editor for BBC\u2019s \u201cNewsnight,\u201d described<\/a> \u201cintelligence reporting that nuclear weapons made in Pakistan on behalf of Saudi Arabia are now sitting ready for delivery.\u201d Urban\u00a0also noted that \u201cLast month Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence, told a conference in Sweden that if Iran got the bomb, \u2018the Saudis will not wait one month. They already paid for the bomb, they will go to Pakistan and bring what they need to bring.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n Urban added that these warnings about the imminent Saudi possession of a nuclear weapon were emanating from Israel, possibly to add pressure on Obama to fall into line and join\u00a0a military airstrike against Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities.<\/p>\n \u201cIt is Israeli information \u2013 that Saudi Arabia is now ready to take delivery of finished warheads for its long-range missiles \u2013 that informs some recent US and NATO intelligence reporting. Israel of course shares Saudi Arabia\u2019s motive in wanting to worry the US into containing Iran,\u201d Urban said, adding:<\/p>\n \u201cAmos Yadlin \u2026 told me by email that \u2018unlike other potential regional threats, the Saudi one is very credible and imminent.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n After the BBC report, I was told by a source familiar with Mideast developments that this possibility of Saudi possession of a nuclear bomb \u2013 and the overall truculence from the Saudi-Israeli alliance \u2013 prompted a blunt response from President Obama, directed to Israeli President Shimon Peres and to Saudi King Abdullah, making clear that the United States would not tolerate a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.<\/p>\n Obama\u2019s choice of recipients, I\u2019m also told, was significant in that he appealed to the heads of state, going over the heads of Netanyahu and Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the chief of Saudi intelligence who has been spearheading the collaboration with Israel on a variety of shared interests, including Iran, Syria and Egypt.<\/p>\n I was told the letters to Peres and King Abdullah could be viewed as a signal that the U.S. government sees the need for Netanyahu and Bandar to be replaced.<\/p>\n A Tougher Kerry<\/b><\/p>\n Obama\u2019s anger over Netanyahu\u2019s sabotage of U.S. diplomacy was reflected, too, in the toughening tone from Secretary of State John Kerry, who came under criticism<\/a> last week for going too far in efforts to smooth the ruffled feathers of the Israelis and Saudis \u2013 appearing obsequious when the White House wanted to project an image of\u00a0forceful confidence.<\/p>\n So, in surprisingly blunt comments to Israeli and Palestinian journalists on Thursday, Kerry warned Israel about the consequences if it refused to recognize the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinians in peace talks that he is personally overseeing.<\/p>\n \u201cThe alternative to getting back to the talks is the potential of chaos,\u201d Kerry said. \u201cI mean, does Israel want a third intifada,\u201d a reference to two outbreaks of Palestinian violence in resistance to the decades of Israeli occupation of Palestinian land.<\/p>\n \u201cIf we do not resolve the issues between Palestinians and Israelis, if we do not find a way to find peace, there will be an increasing isolation of Israel, there will be an increasing campaign of delegitimization of Israel that\u2019s been taking place on an international basis,\u201d Kerry added<\/a>.<\/p>\n Kerry\u2019s more forceful tone, however, didn\u2019t help him salvage the latest round of negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program. Despite optimism that an interim deal was within reach in which Iran would suspend some of its nuclear development in exchange for some sanctions relief, the insistence from France on a harder line \u2013 more in sync with Israel\u2019s demands \u2013 prevented a sign-off on the accord.<\/p>\n Iran has consistently said that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, and U.S. intelligence agencies agree that Iran has made no decision to build a nuclear weapon. Nevertheless, Netanyahu has threatened to bomb Iran if it doesn\u2019t capitulate on its right as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.<\/p>\n By contrast, Israel has refused to sign the\u00a0treaty and maintains an undeclared nuclear arsenal that is considered one of the most sophisticated on earth. Despite the hypocrisy, Israel has been able to concentrate the world\u2019s attention on Iran, which lacks a single nuclear weapon, while keeping the attention away for Israel\u2019s\u00a0own rogue nuclear arsenal, which is rarely mentioned in U.S. press reports even in articles\u00a0about Israel raising alarms regarding Iran.<\/p>\n The Lines Forming<\/b><\/p>\n Yet, while Israeli leaders and the Saudi royals possess substantial clout inside U.S. policy circles, Obama has in his corner his own unlikely ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who also has clashed<\/a> with Netanyahu and Prince Bandar.<\/p>\n Putin appears particularly concerned with Saudi-backed jihadists who have attacked Russian targets in the past and still threaten to destabilize Muslim areas of the Russian Federation, such as Chechnya and Dagestan. Putin also has concerns that Islamic terrorists could endanger the upcoming Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia.<\/p>\n The battle lines of this high-stakes diplomatic conflict are forming with Netanyahu, Bandar and American neoconservatives on one side \u2013 and Obama, Putin and foreign-policy \u201crealists\u201d on the other. Besides the future direction of the Middle East, the political fortunes of individual leaders are at stake, with either Obama or Netanyahu potentially emerging as the biggest loser.<\/p>\n Netanyahu\u2019s strategy calls for rallying Israel\u2019s staunch supporters in Congress and the U.S. news media to criticize Obama for showing \u201cweakness\u201d in trying to resolve disputes with Iran and Syria through constructive diplomacy rather than military force or coercive economic warfare.<\/p>\n On Thursday, Netanyahu called the tentative agreement with Iran a \u201cgrievous historic error\u201d that would not eliminate Iran\u2019s potential for eventually moving to build a nuclear bomb. \u201cIf the news that I am receiving of the impending proposal by the p-5-plus-1 is true, this is the deal of the century, for Iran,\u201d said Netanyahu, referring to the five permanent Security Council members, plus Germany, which have been negotiating with Iran over constraints on its nuclear program.<\/p>\n Trying to head off the deal, some of Netanyahu\u2019s backers\u00a0called for more economic sanctions on Iran, even as its new government under President Hassan Rouhani signals a desire for a diplomatic settlement that would include new limits and more supervision on its nuclear program. Torpedoing the talks by enacting more sanctions would likely increase the prospects of an eventual U.S.-Israel air assault on Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities, a move that Netanyahu has advocated in the past.<\/p>\n \u201cEven if we get this de minimus interim deal [with Iran], we could be in serious trouble,\u201d said Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the neocon Foundation for Defense of Democracies. \u201cThe Israelis and the Saudis are already freaking out about the dangers of any interim deal. This would demonstrate to them and Congress that the Obama administration has entered the Persian nuclear bazaar and gotten totally outnegotiated.\u201d<\/p>\n Similarly, Israeli and Saudi hardliners are furious with Obama for scrapping a planned military strike against Syria last August\u00a0in favor of having the Syrian government give up its chemical weapons in response to a U.S.-Russian initiative. Saudi Arabia, in particular, was hoping that a wave of U.S. airstrikes inside Syria could give the Saudi-backed Sunni jihadists an opportunity to oust President Bashar al-Assad, an Alawite, an offshoot of Shiite Islam.<\/p>\n Historic Grievances<\/b><\/p>\n The Saudi royals, representing the richest Sunni Islamic nation, have long viewed the more ascetic Shiite-led Iranian revolution as a threat to the Saudi regional influence and their own playboy lifestyles.<\/p>\n But the rivalry between Shiite and Sunni Islam dates back almost 1,400 years to the succession struggle after the death of Prophet Muhammad. Israel\u2019s interests also are rooted in the ancient past, with Netanyahu believing in the restoration of the Greater Israel of King David from 3,000 years ago.<\/p>\n In much more recent history, Official Washington\u2019s still-influential neocons were the architects of George W. Bush\u2019s invasion of Iraq \u2013 and they have never given up<\/a> on their dream of forcing \u201cregime change\u201d across the Middle East in nations considered hostile to Israel. After ousting Iraq\u2019s Saddam Hussein, their overriding goal was to overthrow the governments of Iran and Syria \u2013 and thus isolate Israel\u2019s close-in enemies, Lebanon\u2019s Hezbollah and Gaza\u2019s Hamas.<\/p>\n However, the neocons have often miscalculated. Not only did the Iraq War drain the United States of treasure and blood, but it ended up replacing a Sunni tyrant, Saddam Hussein, with a Shiite authoritarian, Nouri al-Maliki, pushing Iraq closer to Iran and creating what is known as \u201cthe Shiite crescent,\u201d reaching from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon.<\/p>\n That expansion of Shiite influence alarmed Saudi Arabia and further elevated Israel\u2019s concerns about Iran\u2019s influence. Another consequence was that an ascendant Iran caused Saudi Arabia to view its longtime adversary, Israel, as a de facto ally in the Sunni-Shiite sectarian struggle. For somewhat different reasons, the Saudis and the Israelis view Iran as their greatest regional enemy, giving new meaning to the old saying: \u201cMy enemy\u2019s enemy is my friend.\u201d<\/p>\n The Saudis and Israeli also have other common interests. They sided with the Egyptian military in removing the elected government of President Mohamed Morsi, a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, a populist Sunni movement that the Saudi royals also see as a threat to their privileged status and the Israelis view as an ally of Hamas in Gaza.<\/p>\n When the worldly Bandar, who served as Saudi ambassador to the United States from 1983 to 2005, expanded his\u00a0influence in the Saudi court especially after his appointment as chief of Saudi intelligence in July 2012, an alliance of convenience became possible between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The alliance combined the two nations\u2019 complementary skills: Israel\u2019s unparalleled propaganda and lobbying and Saudi Arabia\u2019s oil wealth and financial investments.<\/p>\n However, Bandar\u2019s confidence with this new power tandem\u00a0appears to have crossed over into arrogance. According to a leaked diplomatic account of a meeting in Moscow on July 31, he offered both carrots and sticks to Putin to get the Russian president to abandon the Assad regime in Syria. But Bandar\u2019s less-than-subtle reference to Saudi influence over Chechen jihadists \u2013 and their potential threat to the Winter Olympics in Sochi \u2013 reportedly infuriated Putin.<\/p>\n Obama also was chafing under the rough-riding style of Netanyahu, who has frequently brought his whip down on Obama, scolding him in the Oval Office, going over Obama\u2019s head to Congress and the U.S. news media, and essentially endorsing Republican Mitt Romney for president in 2012. Netanyahu also has sought to corner Obama into military conflicts with Iran and Syria, challenging the President\u2019s goal of rebalancing U.S. geopolitical interests away from the Middle East.<\/p>\n Now the stakes have been raised. Either Obama\u2019s regional strategy of diplomacy will prevail with the support of Russian President Putin \u2013 or Netanyahu and Bandar will manage to rally their supporters, especially in U.S. political and media circles, to push the region deeper into conflict.<\/p>\n _________________________<\/p>\n Investigative reporter Robert Parry broke many of the Iran-Contra stories for The Associated Press and Newsweek in the 1980s. You can buy his new book, America\u2019s Stolen Narrative, either in print here<\/a> or as an e-book (from Amazon<\/a> and barnesandnoble.com<\/a>). For a limited time, you also can order Robert Parry\u2019s trilogy on the Bush Family and its connections to various right-wing operatives for only $34. The trilogy includes America\u2019s Stolen Narrative. For details on this offer, click here<\/a>.<\/i><\/i><\/p>\n